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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Why's it a no-no? 150 hour or so ensembles seems pretty reasonable to me.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    There's definitely a split there, but I've found when most people reference the split flow, they are talking about the jet (250-300mb winds) over the Pacific. I have tried to show it on this image. (I may be wrong too, but thought I'd take a stab at it). Usually when it is depicted it is shown with very definite, long, and connected flows (split in the mid Pacific and one half going over a big ridge and the other undercutting it), but I think the jet is more variable than that as seen in my image. there are wind maxes, buckles, etc...
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Another person just posted a UKMET map with precip. that goes out to 168 and it looks gorgeous. Stole it. Hopefully they won't mind.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Griteater just posted in the SE forum that EPS mean is south. Low in the mean goes from Brownsville, south of NO, to Jacksonville.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I do like that the trend today seems to have to a more consolidated vort rather than a strung out one with the 500 center one place and the 700 and 850 another and washed out. Hope that is a sign of things to come. As Tellico says for 40 south folks it would help if nothing except the 500 center passed at our latitude
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z UKMET as far out as I have access to it:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Fv3 and GFS are now taking the low road alongside the Euro. EPS and GEFS are pretty close at hour 144 with the surface High and Low. Part of their agreement this AM seems to lie in how they are handling the follow up Pacific energy. As others pointed out overnight the CMC went from low road yesterday to odd Miller B. Looking through its ensembles there is a huge spread in timing and exactly how it is handling the Pacific energy so we may see more ups and downs in CMC runs until it gets the Pac energy figured out. 6 days is a long lead time for the EPS and GEFS to have figured it out. But if so, I'll take my chances even in Knoxville with that overall setup and let the specifics work themselves out. Is it just me or have the cold air masses been verifying colder? Maybe the GFS has been slightly too warm: https://imgur.com/a/KmJaTzN Gif is GFS from last Sunday (as far back as I could go on Tropical Tidbits) 78 hour forecast for the coldest morning of this past week and the trend until verification. (Knoxville actually verified at 21 according to MRX, not the 24 the model seems to show) Looks like our source region for cold air is snow covered as well, from Canada to Nebraska. Maybe too much wish casting and weenie here, but none of above is wrong. But I do wonder what the next big difference will be between the models? I just find it hard to believe the main set up is totally worked out. I suspect that follow up Pacific wave has yet to be totally pegged down and the N. stream energy that tries every few runs or so to drop in and hook up with the main energy will have its say before its said and done.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Today has been just an all around unusual weather day. Dense fog and mild this AM in Knoxville. Crazy mt. wave winds in the foothills. Thunderstorm at around sunset. More possibly moving in from Middle TN. I like it. Things are wintery, but out of the ordinary.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Alright @Carvers Gap thunder in Knoxville and its heading up that way. Here we go! Amazing to go from as cold as it has been to a nice thunderstorm!
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Check out the wonky changes with the energy in the Pacific at H5 over the past 6 runs of the GFS, as our wave is in N. Mexico/ CA/ Southwest depending on the run: https://imgur.com/a/umSzM2B The above would be for Friday evening, about the time the Euro has already ejected the energy. The earlier runs where the energy is over TX or NM resulted in more suppression and better timing with the High, like the Euro is showing. The Pacific energy seems to be effecting the ridging over top of the wave and how fast it ejects. Euro has been bouncing around too, but notice the follow up energy in the Pacific (here denoted by the blue blob because Tropical Tidbits doesn't have the vorticity maps for the Euro) has been depicted in a pretty steady location over the past few runs (it only let me go back 5) or I would have done 6 too, like the GFS: https://imgur.com/a/XPr7lFX UKMET is more like the Euro and I like that. It was one of the first to pick up on the big upper low that gave NW areas some snow earlier in Nov. Doesn't mean it will be right here, but I sometimes think it strikes a nice balance between model camps.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Anthony Masiello has a great thread on the twitterwebs today about this specific event (saw one section of it in the MA forum). I won't post the whole thing here since it is fairly long, but basically the gist is that he thinks the GFS/ FV3 is doing a really bad job handling the southern and norther stream separation and later interaction. It wants to have a slower (and trending slower) and deeper wave that ejects more amped and thus the cutters. He favors the Euro for this specific event right now; faster and flatter wave thus the high is more favorable. Not a fan of flat and overrunning for me in Knoxville this time of year, would rather have amped AND south, but hopefully it translates to something nice for many others. Lot's can still change, but I were a fan of today's Euro run, he's someone I'd want to have in my pocket arguing in favor of that sort of a solution. Still a ways to go and for me, I'm just happy that several of the EPS members from 0z still got it done.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wow!
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll take my chances anytime with what the WPC is currently going with for day 7 (Dec. 8). About all you could ask for for our area, even if it ends up being barely too warm around Knoxville.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sounds good to me!
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Using a month old forecast to troll the OC job at UT
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think Flash's warning about the thermal profiles is a good one. But I will say if there was an overall set up that at least has a shot at trending colder, this is it. Clipper blazes by to the north and reinforces the High, but like you said I wish the High was a little further west. I not totally sure just yet, but it just seems like the southern stream feature is not going anywhere. It may wobble and change strength and size, but a lot of how this unfolds looks like it depends on the northern part of the split flow and how those fast waves come in/ angle/ timing. FV3 H5 energy is rounder as it hits CA (GFS had it more oblong) and the northern stream is quite a bit different at hour 138, let's see where it goes.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Also just found this (link from Anthony Masiello) for SPV and SSW analysis: https://stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I noticed was that the EPS average on TT was a little bit slower with it in the southwest. I'm interested in this extra energy the GFS and FV3 have as the initial storm is moving out. If I remember correctly sometimes these storms coming from the SW get delayed by a day or two as we get closer. I wonder if there ends up being more interaction between the two if the first slows down enough. I'm also flabbergasted that the interaction between the 2 energies in the Pacific hasn't changed that much from 18z to 6z. But then again it's only 72 hours out, so I guess there may not be much change in that.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Love that blog. Had forgotten about it. Whoever writes that really loves High Knob.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Really interesting evolution of our potential wave over the next few days in the Pacific: https://imgur.com/a/f4h4twn It is now N. of Hawaii and as it rolls east, it stalls slightly because of the ridging being backbuilt through Alberta, long enough to phase with a piece dropping down from the Aleutians. Then it cuts off with ridging into AK above it, and rolls on into CA and across the US. Obviously this is just one model's depiction in one run of a fluid process, but I wonder if the relative steadiness of the wave as it has been depicted at such a long lead has something to do with the fact that other than the potential phase above it just seems to be on its own for a long time.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Preach it!!!! I want to see one again even if I only get rain out of it. I've also seen other people (I think WxUSAF in specific) in MA forum say that the FV3 accumulation maps are garbage and ought to be thrown out all the time. I know the 12z Euro has a cutter now, but I like its H5 look better from yesterday 12z to today 12z. Nice PNA ridge and if that N stream dove just a little more... https://imgur.com/a/A39C4mG Some talk in the NE forum that the EPS is as good as can be at over a week out, but I don't have access yet. Blaarrg! way too early for me to get invested, but I'm addicted. It seems like it's been a long while since there was model agreement on something coming. Cutter, slider, Miller A coastal, Miller B, whatever it becomes, may be wrong, but I think it's coming. And like y'all said: Lord have mercy at the FV3... In terms of overall pattern beyond, I noticed in the MA forum they've traced the talk of the Modoki's demise back to Crankywx on Twitter. Psu blames another person (fBeccalynch4 I think), but that person is just quoting crankywx and tweeting his images. Based on what I've read from him, I wouldn't put it past him to troll people who wanted a Modoki for its perceived snowiness. But, in watching this unfold, I've noticed that there are two different types of SST maps being used. One comes from a guy that tweets about ENSO in S. America, (map 1: https://imgur.com/a/thNks9H ) And another is this one: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml They are similar, but one seems a little more dramatic to me since it is zoomed in. In no way trying to start a big debate on ENSO, but was interesting to see how all the talk evolved. In a related note, for anybody who wants to learn how to read a hovmoller diagram (I definitely wanted to since I see them all the time on here and had no idea how to interpret one), griteater has a great explanation in the SE forum (page 106 of their mid-long term discussion).
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Somehow don't have freezing rain here in Harriman, TN. 32 and rain.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Is this a rare example of cold air damming down the valley?!
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    There's a really weird set up evolving for the Dec. 4-5 period. It looks like there is a block over the N. Plains forcing everything south. This potential has actually trended south instead of a cutter. Even if we don't see any wintery weather it will be interesting to see how it evolves and how it impacts the 8-10 potential once it finally moves through.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I remember 94-95 as not so good. I have distinct memories (the whole reason I'm addicted to this stuff) of 93 and 95-6. I remember 94 (Jan - Feb) as cold, but that is about it. Went back through the 94-95 500 mb and surface reanalysis (Dec. 1 -April 1). There is a weird cutoff around Dec 20 -23 and Jan 15-17; March 2 or so looked like it might have had potential and March 8-9. Other than that, several of storms cut right across TN. Ray's (http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/) doesn't have much, but he doesn't always include southern events. Radar, Dec. 2014: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=1000&interval=60&year=2014&month=12&day=1&hour=0&minute=0 (Dec. 4 - Dec 6, 2014 looks very similar to what's depicted on 18z GFS, Nov. 30 -Dec 2, 2018; at least for surface reflectivity) The Iowa site I use only goes back to 95, so no Radar from 1994.
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