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Holston_River_Rambler

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  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Or maybe just colder
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM looks a bit south at 18z:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Strangely enough the 12z EPS actually favors the period after the big storm on the GFS and CMC. Maybe not tha tstrange since the Euro didn't have it, but maybe there's a "split the difference" reality in there. Elizabethton as just an example
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    It is interesting that a lot of the models were keen on a storm around the 28th until this weekend's behemoth began to coalesce. Maybe it pushed the signal back a bit? Maybe the pattern is just conducive for chances?
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    For posterity, since no one else did, I'll throw some images out:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I mean everything has a gulf storm in about as reasonable agreement as anyone could expect at 200 hours. I guess we'll see what manner of a rug pull happens if and when the rug gets laid down. Will it be a rug yanker? A flopper? A shredder? An incineration?
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    What is BAMS? Please don’t tell me BAM has started selling some in house model to News stations? That would make me sad.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    My God the 12z GFS is so beautiful if only it wasn’t the GFS and was 72 hours out instead of 210.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Other microclimates of potential interest for this system on the 6z NAM:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is all I have time for now, but don't think this thread is just for obs. about about the potential for the phenomena above. I'm sure we'll have plenty of other phots as long as we have power.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yesterday, fountain guy noticed that some of the hi-res CAMs were showing some ice cutting across the eastern Unakas into the Great Eastern Valley of Tennessee. This seemed odd, since normally CAD (Cold Air Damming) events are a meteorological phenomenon of the eastern side of the Apps, when cold arctic highs ooze down the foothills of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and sometimes Georgia. The cold air is shallow however and typically cannot make it overt he Appalachian mountains. Here are some of the images showing the cold air bleeding across the NC and TN border as well as some downslope warming: Dewpoints: Dewpoints really make this evident when set in motion: Here are the relevant topography features. I only put the Nolichukcy and French Broad Valleys on there since they are two of the larger rivers, but the Doe and the Watauga also cut into CAD areas:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm going to make an obs. thread and throw in some maps and thoughts about some of the things we were talking about wrt the mountain wave/ cold air coming over the Apps.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    It sounds like they were very reluctant to put them out, and when the Social Media manager came back in after being off they an yelled at someone.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ideal !!!
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yall are trying harder than I was last night!
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    One more thing and I promise I'm done for a bit. Consider dewpoint differences between the CAD areas in NC and the TN Valley...
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Do you want to be the pot or the kettle on the weather weenie message board, lol
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I am going to shut up about this stuff (at least for a while) now because I think other posters might be over it. I will be watching for this now. I love microclimate stuff.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is as interested in this storm as I have been in like 48 hours lol.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's what I'm trying to say. The trajectory of the winds isn't through the gaps where the rives cut, it's directly over ridges in locations that are often affected by mountain wave events, so I don't think its that, or cold air leaking through the river gaps. I'm wondering if there is some physical process where the relative warming can be coupled with a relative cooling OR somehow the trajectory of the winds transports air that is so relatively cold that that even with relative adiabatic warming it still cools valley areas.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think Carver's is right about it being related to the mountain wave. That trajectory is too spot on. Is there some physical process where by air can cool near to a relatively warming downslope flow?
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is what we've come to for this system lol, it's like an inverse Bays Mountain band situation: Purple arrows are wind trajectory modeled and blue lines are the approximate flow of the two rivers. Black circles are where the rivers come out of the mountains.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    After looking at the NAM temps above, that was my first thought. The air is warming as it moves away from the foothills and into the valley of the 81 corridor so that makes some sense. You know how they do those air parcel tests to see where airmasses come from? It'd be really interesting to see where the air that is moved by the mountain wave events originates and what happens to it as it accelerates over the mountains and descends into the East TN valley. This seems like a very unusual situation. Usually when we have mountain wave events it seems like we have a strong cutter heading west and there isn't really any concern for cold air except on the backside of the system.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    But in this case wouldn't it be colder air coming across @Carvers Gap since the map @fountainguy97 showed shows fingers of freezing rain? The 3km NAM shows a little bit of this, but strangely enough it does appear to be cutting across the mountains to me and not in the valleys:
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