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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    One other thing to consider especially north of I-40. When the transition happens, there is usually an area with humongo snowflakes (fatties, as it were) just on the leading edge of that warm nose.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Best guess I have is that the HP is bullying the system a bit. The real challenge to the HP comes when the Baja low fully ejects and starts to interact with the n. stream shortwave dropping in now through NW Canada. I guess we could look at the confluence over the NE to see if that has trended stronger? There is a touch more confluence on the RGEM over NE and I do mean just a touch. Most of the early precip. on the first wave is driven by frotogenesis, isentropic upglide (presumably not unrelated), and jet dynamics over the upper OH Valley. LLJ doesn't really hit TN until after 3 tomorrow (eastern time), So I guess there is some scenario where this first wave overperforms wrt frozen as opposed to freezing for favored areas. But I don't see much of a window outside of TN and VA/KY border counties (eastern areas only here since out west TN it is a different story) past maybe dark tomorrow when that LLJ gets cranking.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I am wrong to say the RGEM is usually a colder (biased) model? It just surprises me that it has continuously ticked S. Is it slower, colder, south? All of the above? Don't get me wrong, I'm don't see su dodging the ice bullet completely, but it does look like the HP is bullying things a bit.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here you go: Good tropical connection and you can see the shortwave that shall not be named dropping in over Alberta:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    wow. If y'all haven't had the front pass by in East TN yet, get ready. That N/NW wind has a bite.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is what I was looking at when I made the south call:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Or maybe just colder
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM looks a bit south at 18z:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Strangely enough the 12z EPS actually favors the period after the big storm on the GFS and CMC. Maybe not tha tstrange since the Euro didn't have it, but maybe there's a "split the difference" reality in there. Elizabethton as just an example
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    It is interesting that a lot of the models were keen on a storm around the 28th until this weekend's behemoth began to coalesce. Maybe it pushed the signal back a bit? Maybe the pattern is just conducive for chances?
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    For posterity, since no one else did, I'll throw some images out:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I mean everything has a gulf storm in about as reasonable agreement as anyone could expect at 200 hours. I guess we'll see what manner of a rug pull happens if and when the rug gets laid down. Will it be a rug yanker? A flopper? A shredder? An incineration?
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    What is BAMS? Please don’t tell me BAM has started selling some in house model to News stations? That would make me sad.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    My God the 12z GFS is so beautiful if only it wasn’t the GFS and was 72 hours out instead of 210.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Other microclimates of potential interest for this system on the 6z NAM:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is all I have time for now, but don't think this thread is just for obs. about about the potential for the phenomena above. I'm sure we'll have plenty of other phots as long as we have power.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yesterday, fountain guy noticed that some of the hi-res CAMs were showing some ice cutting across the eastern Unakas into the Great Eastern Valley of Tennessee. This seemed odd, since normally CAD (Cold Air Damming) events are a meteorological phenomenon of the eastern side of the Apps, when cold arctic highs ooze down the foothills of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and sometimes Georgia. The cold air is shallow however and typically cannot make it overt he Appalachian mountains. Here are some of the images showing the cold air bleeding across the NC and TN border as well as some downslope warming: Dewpoints: Dewpoints really make this evident when set in motion: Here are the relevant topography features. I only put the Nolichukcy and French Broad Valleys on there since they are two of the larger rivers, but the Doe and the Watauga also cut into CAD areas:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm going to make an obs. thread and throw in some maps and thoughts about some of the things we were talking about wrt the mountain wave/ cold air coming over the Apps.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    It sounds like they were very reluctant to put them out, and when the Social Media manager came back in after being off they an yelled at someone.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ideal !!!
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yall are trying harder than I was last night!
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    One more thing and I promise I'm done for a bit. Consider dewpoint differences between the CAD areas in NC and the TN Valley...
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Do you want to be the pot or the kettle on the weather weenie message board, lol
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I am going to shut up about this stuff (at least for a while) now because I think other posters might be over it. I will be watching for this now. I love microclimate stuff.
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