midatlanticweather

This image is from another flood. Not Helene. It seems to be reposted again and again with different floods.

GFS looks like some Western folks could have lows solidly in the 30s next week. We shall see. It's not quite as chilly on the Euro. Maybe again next weekend... if GFS is right (and this way out) it would get really chilly mid-month.

1.15 inches overnight was unexpected for sure.

0.34 today and. 0.08 yesterday. 0.42 inches. Really wish that would double or triple.

Probably something that did not get modeled right.. strength of Helene, the High to the north and blocking.. stuff that seemed to be missed. The models seemed to see the blocking better last week and then lost it. Anyways, whatever it was, all the models were not seeing it well.

GFS - Has a dry area over central areas with 1 inch plus SW and to the NE. - Odd look 3KM Nam - Much drier General and pushed the heaviest rain southward Icon - General 1 to 2 inch for the area Euro - 6z - looks like it is also pulling more moisture south of the DC area - quarter or less than half inch for the dc area with pockets of more.. really getting dry up near MD/PA border National Blend of models - about half inch near PA/MD border and in the 1 to 2 inch south of DC Seems we have a pretty good sense that the heavier rains will be down towards Fredericksburg area and southwards. The trend is not our friend if we are expecting more rain in the DC area and up towards MD/PA border! Hope we see a reversal!

GFS making some odd predictions next week. A lot seems uncertain. If this was a snow map, I would be scratching my head and wondering what @Ji did to jinx the forecast! LOL! The Euro looks much less enthused with rain chances.

48.2 already. So chilly out. Loving it

44.9 degree low. Spectacular!

47.6 for the low. Was nice and cool!

Feel a watch may be coming a bit later. Already up to the western suburbs. The air is so Soupy.

Looks a little interesting near Middleburg

40% chance of a watch Mesoscale Discussion 2028 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Areas affected...central Pennsylvania into western and central Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291720Z - 291915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop from central Pennsylvania southwestward along the Blue Ridge, with locally strong to damaging gusts possible into surrounding areas to the east later today. DISCUSSION...A moist and unstable air mass is in place today south and west of the New England surface ridge, and despite slow drying from the east. Visible imagery clearly indicates a very moist air mass with expansive cumulus fields over much of PA and southwestward along the Blue Ridge. GPS PWAT sensors show values of 1.75-2.00" from eastern VA/DelMarVa northwestward into central PA. Continued heating will lead to accelerated development over the higher terrain of eastern WV and western VA over the next few hours, with additional activity expected over much of central PA where weak convergence exists. Shear will remain weak over most of the area, with propagating clusters of storms expected to move east/southeast into the remainder of central and northern VA and parts of MD. Locally damaging gusts will be possible given the favorable timing of the development with peak heating, and as outflow pushes into regions with steep low-level lapse rates later this afternoon.

Is that a sea breeze front moving across the area from the east?

I take it tomorrow is a stretch. Not looking very probable - ...Mid-MS/OH Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty remains this forecast cycle, particularly from around central PA eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Severe thunderstorm probabilities have been focused along and just ahead of a southward sagging cold front and instability gradient from central OH to the NJ coast. Rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F) will contribute to a corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg from the Mid-MS Valley eastward to the NJ coast. Warm midlevel temperatures may lead to lingering inhibition, particularly across eastern portions of the Slight and Marginal risk areas. Height falls associated with troughing over eastern Canada will remain well north of the region, and resulting in somewhat nebulous large-scale ascent amid very modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes generally less than 25 kt). Convection from the Day 1/Tue period may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Great Lakes vicinity and shift east along the instability gradient/southward-sagging surface front through the afternoon. Vertical shear may be locally enhanced with any MCV that may be present with this activity, and damaging winds are possible as the downstream boundary layer destabilizes. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible from central PA/northern VA eastward to the coast. This activity could produce locally damaging gusts and perhaps small hail if capping can be overcome and longer-lived updrafts develop. Weak shear further west toward the Mid-MS Valley vicinity will likely preclude a more organized severe risk. However, strong heating amid the very moist/unstable airmass will support isolated strong/locally damaging gusts during the afternoon.

48.2 this morning. So nice

50 for the low. Loving the cool temperature

0.02 outta small showers. Back n the drought feels again

Would love a map showing rain totals. The ones I am getting are all over the place and not great. Any ideas?

5.45" Tuesday through today. Definitely drought denting if not elimination for many in Western Loudoun. I am seeing reports of people seeing well over 8 inches in parts of west-central Loudoun for the event which I believe was the max deficits out this way.

AS much as I was following stuff last night, have there been damage reports in the area from the Confirmed tornado last night? I see some down in Central VA near Lake Caroline. I may have missed it in all the posts, but I am not seeing much from the outlets I follow.

It looks like there is a CC drop on the storm. EDIT: The next scan did not show it anymore