Albedoman

I absolutely disagree with todays MT Holly discussion. Again, with almost a million people in the Lehigh Valley metro area and the most heavily traveled truck corridor in the northeast, why are they being so laissez faire? When did weather forecasting become a non- physical geographical science? No where is the LV mentioned as having a even a potential significant ice accretions, yet the lower Delaware Valley and NJ is mentioned in the discussion as getting less than .1 of in of ice? You know , there are people who live north of the fall line and we are no longer in hicksville. Why is the LV split in half with a winter storm watch when the entire LV is covered by hills and mountains with many of the highest elevations along South Mountains in Lehigh County? I am so tired of the forecast discussions leaving out the LV region but being thrown in as an afterthought. Its time for a change guys as there are more people in the LV than in some states, We are geographically pinned by the Appalachian Mts on one side and South Mountains on the other side and the valley base elevations are hundreds of feet higher than even lower than Bucks County. PLease, Please, Stop talking about interstates as dividing lines for the types of precip but start talking about the mountain ranges. Man made - Interstates are being substituted for physical geography features. Stop dumbing it down. When you mention north of I-78, I-78 lies between two mountain ranges plus the interstate lies at the bottom of the Valley. If you are going to separate regions for precip amounts, please use South Mountains/Blue Mts or even the fall line as you basis for determining precip types, not 1-78. When in doubt , err on the cautionary side when issuing watches/warnings and list the entire Valley as a watch/warning. In otherwards, it physically does not snow and ice five inches in Bethlehem but not in Allentown since both cities border each other by one simple street. Do you even know that Lehigh University lies directly on top of South Mountain but both counties go through Lehigh University? Did you know that Salisbury Township in Lehigh County lies directly on top of South Mountain as well as Upper Saucon Township in Lehigh County? Did you guys know that huge PPL transmission lines cross the S Mountain and there are major electric substations located on this mountain range and that if the ice accretion on these facilities is severe, the power will go out for residents as far south as Telford PA? Its time for a visit out of the MT Holly office in NJ to see the physical geography of the LV when forecasting weather and not behind a computer screen looking up confidence levels. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Really no significant changes to the forecast for the Thursday and Friday storm system as model agreement and consistency remain fairly strong. With this, we were able to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the northern parts of our forecast area where warning-level total snowfall is possible. This watch is in effect from 7 pm Thursday through 6 pm Friday. For other portions of the area, there is growing confidence for impactful freezing rain, but opted to refrain from issuing a watch for these areas with more advisory-level conditions likely. Will continue to message these concerns through the HWO and social media. Low pressure will track out of the Tennessee Valley and up the western side of the Appalachians into the headwaters of the Ohio over western Pennsylvania. With high pressure to our north over Ontario and Quebec, the warm front ahead of the system will remain mostly shunted to our south, though warm air will nudge northward as the front finally lifts through the Delmarva Peninsula Friday and a new coastal low forms over our area. The new 06Z run of the NAM has become a little more progressive and shifted north a touch with the storm, favoring the western parent low a little longer and spawning the new low over southern New Jersey rather than a little offshore. This slight shift kept enough uncertainty to not issue a watch any further south at this time. Continued to favor a Canadian and NAM blend for the low-level temperatures through this period to capture the CAD. QPF amounts remain steady so snowfall and ice amounts haven`t changed much with this new forecast cycle. With the slight northward shift, am thinking there may be a little more freezing rain rather than sleet over much of southeastern PA and central NJ. Other guidance sounding slam the higher terrain where the watch has been issued with heavy sleet Friday morning and early afternoon. Am not quite as confident in how far the freezing rain line will stall over our northern portions of the CWA, but think this may be around the I-80 corridor. A good thud of snow is likely to start the event as a weak vort max moves east along and north of the warm front. There may be a little lull before precip fills back in as the surface low moves closer from the west early Thursday night. Total snowfall amounts range from a few tenths of an inch over the urban corridor to 4-6 inches in the Poconos and Sussex County, NJ. Ice amounts still remain from one to two tenths of an inch across much of southeastern PA and into central New Jersey. These amounts area little lower over the Poconos and Sussex County, NJ with sleet and snow holding on a little longer in these places. Total liquid precipitation amounts range from a half to one inch south of Philadelphia to one to one and a quarter inches north of the city over the Lehigh Valley and into northern New Jersey. Travel will be impacted from the combination of wintry precip, especially Friday morning. Cannot rule out power outages and minor tree damage, but the system looks progressive enough that ice totals aren`t quite high enough for Ice Storm Warnings and those significant threats. &&

talking to my USGS buddies about the 10th St stream gauge in Allentown for the Little Lehigh. My flood thresholds were exceeded on Sunday and I emailed them to please check it out. This is what they found below . This is a first for me in my 32+ years here in the LV. All I can say it been really cold the last few days and if the snow pack was more pronounced , many areas would have been way below zero this morning. The recent" overachiever /over performer" snow event to the snow weenies was indeed dramatic for even in the locals in the Lehigh Valley. I went to Germansville/New Tripoli in northern Lehigh County this morning and there was barely a covering/dusting on the ground. 20 miles away at my house 4+ inches are still on the ground. Talk about localized snow banding. The site 01451500 was visited yesterday afternoon. While water temperatures remain above freezing, the air temperatures have dropped low enough to cause water within the orifice pipe to freeze and constrict air flow through the line. This constriction is pressurizing the line which results in erroneously high gage heights. This was first seen starting the night of Feb 5 and into Feb 6, but the cause for the erroneous gage heights was not known as the condition cleared itself and everything looked normal by the next scheduled visit on Feb 9. We expect the ice in the pipe to soon melt as daytime highs are forecast to reach 50F and nighttime lows will stay above freezing. Once able, measures will be taken to prevent such occurrences in the future.

yep. Realistically, both will contribute but as water sources become less efficient and ground water tables fall, fuel costs to transport rise dramatically as nearby water immediate well sources go off line as well as increased pumping costs for each well. It is not cheap to run the pumps deeper. Self imposed restrictions water withdrawal limits set by the company and as set by DRBC/PADEP permitting requirements for specific water withdrawals for each well will help contribute to the increase cost of production. You may want to ask Voyager as I believe he operates water tankers for a living.

fyi https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=4&lat=31.91&lon=-92.67&hr=24

blame the models on this one. It seems the models have forgotten about the LV this year and the effect of physical geography.

No way. The snow falling now should be almost gone by Thursday and mostly by evaporation. However, a 2-3 inch long duration steady rainfall event would be real nice in early March as a drought buster when the soils are not frozen to the depth they are at right now and that would kill any chances of a drought. Just do not see this in this progressive pattern right now. This snow will be history by 9am as fast as this precip is moving.

I verify here in Macungie with death band over me. Hitting 5 in and still puking snow. NWS should issue a winter storm warning. Tree limbs really getting plastered.

well, here it comes from the media- Its an "OVERPERFORMER" . Not one weather model predicted this type of lifting right now over us. Definite now cast event. we just got plain lucky with the location of death band in the LV. Well over 4 inches now approaching 5 inches and coming down at 1-2 in per hour. By 6am, should be well over 6 inches if this keeps up. Winter storm warning maybe issued? Its the most snow on the limbs that I have seen in over a year. real plasterer for sure.

4.2 inches in Macungie right now still puking snow. Best snow all winter. Nice snowman making snow- wet fluffy snow sticking to everything except the treated roads

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-New_Jersey-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I am quite surprised. I have well over 3 inches of snow on the picnic table here in Macungie and on the grass right now, much less on the pavements. The best snowfall rates all year with fluffy half dollar size dendrites falling heavily. If this death band keeps going, we will have met winter storm requirements in the next few hours. Again, its about dam time it snows here this year instead of at the shore.

I am quite surprised. I have well over 3 inches of snow on the picnic table here in Macungie and on the grass right now, much less on the pavements. The best snowfall rates all year with fluffy half dollar size dendrites falling heavily. If this death band keeps going, we will have met winter storm requirements in the next few hours. Again, its about dam time it snows here this year instead of at the shore.

yep, and salt water intrusion into the Delaware Bay becomes an issue as well. C'mon man. But really, the only one that will be laughing will be Nestle and Niagara as they raise the living hell out of the price for bottled water as they impose self restricted withdrawals from their water sources. Over 75% of the bottled water sold in our area comes from the water bottlers in the LV, including any Samuel Adams beer, Ocean Spray products and coke products

thanks. The time frame adjusted to ides of March then.

well, my 90 day forecast FWIW. Brutal ending to Feb. No more major snowfalls in Feb. Temps warm up above average. Precip- dry as a bone with occasional light rain showers with progressive cool fronts- nothing more than 1 in at the max March - only one decent chance for a major accumulating snow event. It will be the last hurrah and capper for this pitiful winter. Most likely to take place around the Philly Flower show time. Then it melts and Spring shows it face. Temps stay normal starting late March. Precip, dry as a bone except for this one major storm. Major pattern change opens up late in March to a -NAO April begins with the -NAO cloudy and cooler than normal before another new pattern change. After mid April, the stove turns on and dry conditions persist. I expect drought conditions to persist until the GOM opens up with t-storms. I expect a hell of season for early severe weather threats for the midwest, TN Valley and even the Ohio Valley as temps change drastically in mid April in the new pattern change.

this wildfire condition is only going to get worse as the month goes on. The snow hole and drought conditions continue. Last weeks heavy rain only served to temporarily wet the litter floor and flood the local streams with very little ground/soil water recharge since the soils were tightly frozen. The base flows in the creek will start to rapidly fall in the next few weeks as water usage continues to rise. However, the soil horizon is starting to thaw out in the last few days as soil temps finally rise. We really need a stationary front over us for a week with lows riding up the front to put a dent in this drought condition . I just do see that chance with this progressive pattern that is for sure. .FIRE WEATHER... An unseasonably mild day is expected today, with highs mostly in the 50s. Following a midday to early afternoon frontal passage, dew point and RH values are likely to drop this afternoon. Minimum RH values of 35 to 40 percent are expected across most of central and southern New Jersey, far southeast PA, and Delmarva. In addition, as a dry cold front moves through today, winds will become breezy, with westerly gusts near 30 mph expected. This combination could lead to a modestly elevated risk of wildfire spread this afternoon, mainly south of the I-78 corridor where there is no snow cover in place. Fairly similar temperature, wind, and RH conditions are expected on Friday, though that day should not be quite as breezy with southwesterly gusts up to 25 mph. The combination of marginal RH values and fuels not having had much time to dry following recent precipitation should preclude a need for any Special Weather Statements. However, we will be coordinating with state partners and will monitor for any changes. https://www.drought.gov/location/18062

long live that fricking donut hole. WE take this in the LV

give me the 70's and sunshine now. Time for night time t storms to track. This winter appears to be a huge letdown.

yep those pity flakes keep on falling. As I said before - Presidents day for the win. I see it on the models runs as they are choking on it now. They will get their act together in the next five days

well, that map really shows where the groundhog dug his hole in PA this year LMAO

my god the LR globals suck this morning and the GEM continues to donut hole us and give us the finger. I am ready for good time spring thunderstorms. This winter will go in the record books for sure as the year with no winter storm model consensus too. we could not even get pity flakes or just a few marbles of sleet last night in Macungie. The only things that happened from this storm event was heavier rainfall, the snow was gone in less than three hours, the temp gradient was remarkable from 39 to 60 degrees in four hours and during the night , the flash freeze did occur at sunset yesterday and finally the ski resorts will be in the red for sure.

yep since nearly 100% of the precip ran off directly into the streams

yep, I said that --Presidents day or bust is my motto. . Thats the usual MO of this type of progressive pattern we are in. I am sure the models will be flopping around on this possible storm event the next few weeks, especially if the AO goes into a real good negative territory at the same time. Coming out of a negative territory at the same time the LP forms makes sense for this time period and increase the chance that we actually might get a plowable snow event in the LV