Albedoman

Finally, here is the best news in the few weeks. The pattern change appears to be coming around the 9th through the 11th. Looks like the ground may be at least white for a few weeks based on the MJO as it rounds the bases and maybe even goes through Phase 1 to 2. Looks real promising.

06 GFS model run is the biggest fricking fantasy event if I ever saw one in the five years-- double barrel LP coastal - one after another. First one rain to mix then to snow. Second LP- all snow. Clown maps say 2 ft of snow- most of freezing rain and sleet cut it by 2/3 and you may have our first legit warning event. This run beats them all for an ultimate fantasy game. Throw it out. Demonstrates how reliable 15 day models are ---NOT. All this indicates is a possible pattern change.

this post ought to light a fire for the snow weenies. The best analog year to the current weather thus far- 1998. ABE got a whopping 4.5 in total in snowfall for the year . Why this analog? check it below. Looks awful familiar as far as temps and precip go to this year. I guess my 30+ in of snow for this winter in another thread has gone to hell in a hand basket. Love the back loading chances too. Zilcho. It was also the summer from hell with little rain and we were in a major drought. Furthermore 1998 was a La Nina year too and we had no snow in February. https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/allentown/year-1998

honestly, in my 40 years of forecasting, I have never seen so many "lake cutters LP's being forecasted in the LR models in a 3-4 week time frame. You would think one of them would run up along the coast. Those poor souls along the Great lakes region will see 48 inches of snow melt down to a foot only to refreeze and pile up again in January. I would not want to have a basement up there as the ground will be supersaturated and flooded. In the meantime enjoy your "January Thaw" in the next two weeks. Expect to see people wearing shorts again around New Years and after. No major snow event on the horizon for us to track in the next 15 days. Time to go get the lawn mower ready LMAO

memphis has rolling rolling blackouts on going now. They cannot handle the cold

my sister in law lives in Memphis. They have rolling blackouts for a metro area. Pretty bad

well here i my official proof- over 50 degree drop with the temps within 12 hours time. Have not seen that since I left wisconsin in the 70's. Nice strong front.

the only thing that gets crushed is the hope that this dam La Nina pattern does not keep going on after mid Jan. This whole pattern now is a waste of energy to track and hope for a warning level snow event. If we cannot get a 2+ inch snow event even out of six days of below freezing highs, we suck.

winter does not really begin for us until the last week in January. This entire cold front situation with snow showers was a joke and played up by the media big time. Cold yes, snow how pitiful. I would call this pattern we are in the -- (TOP) Tundra Oscillation Pattern . This pattern is distinctly seen in the overall La Nina and neutral years patterns for PA. The two ( cold and snow) never align themselves in this pattern. Every potential storm event is a thread the needle event and even Alberta clippers are hard to come by. Hard to believe New Years will be in the 50's. Again nothing worth tracking on the LR until after mid January even if the pattern flips. WE can speculate about the next storm but three years of a strong La Nina pattern has virtually destroyed the reliability of the so called better LR GFS models and my time of tracking them IMHO. Time to look beyond LR and rely on even better SR models.

agree 8.5 would be perfect, especially if really amp high and returning but when the hell have I ever seen that that last time? Before Covid LOL? Of course in a fading La Nina pattern, look to late Feb into March for the possible heavy snow events. The La Nina year 1993 storm brings back memories of a triple phaser. 1985 is the best analogy for this years weather pattern. Had record breaking cold snap too. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/climaterisks/years/top24enso.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_North_American_cold_wave https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/allentown/most-yearly-snow

the MJO is also my favorite tellie. This MJO demonstrates to me how the pac ocean is performing which IMHO is the main driver of most of our weather. A MJO of 4-6 is telling me that the thread the needle storm events are our only chance of a good snowstorm as the pattern really is dogging it for KU storms. Relying on a -NAO or -AO is too much reliance for me when hoping for a major winter storm to appear out of nowhere. My philosophy has always been what latitude the storm hits the west coast is approximately where it will exit on the east coast. Before we had a dozen weather models/tellies, that was the main driver of longer than 5 day forecasting with some sort of accuracy. Yes, there was a hiccup, when a secondary low forms of the SE coast or another one forms in the GOM but coincidentally that is when we get hammered here with a major storm. As I said before, Miller A's out of the GOM have been extremely rare in the last 5-10 years. Until we see the trough dig down toward Texas or a hallmark bench low forms and come out of the 4 corners area, we are screwed for decent snow events here. Until I see LR range 10-15 day models come in with these scenarios, I will be very skeptical of any snow events for us. This thread the needle crap for each winter storm event is becoming very tiresome indeed for everyone.

The only thing that will break the fricking pattern we are in is the GOM opening up for business and at the same time a few clippers go on by. Three years of this PA jet screaming by is pissing off everyone now. Another blown forecast for the LV overcast and 31 degrees- was supposed to be sunny. The La Nina has to relax in late January is our single chance of saving this winter. Wasted cold snaps by rain/mix and wind events is getting old. The only ones that will cash in on this ugly pattern is the Great lakes region for Lake effect snow as the lakes are not even frozen yet. What is strange is that we have very few true clippers in this crappy pattern. This is the 1980's all over again.

thanks. I will be posting here more often. No I am not an elite but I do have 45 years experience in weather forecasting. I am a retired physical geographer with a concentration in atmospheric science _ the days before they had computer models outside of Maryland. I was an air traffic controller in the Navy and worked as a remote sensing for the CIA( landsat imagery). My uncle was the western regional director for the NWS until he retired 20 years ago- so yes I do know the weather before computers and the internet got into the picture. I refer to models as tools of the trade and not the bible for storm forecasting. I have seen every type of storm imaginable from being in an F3 tornado in Arkansas, hurricanes in MS, blizzards in the east coast, 125 degrees in death valley, 60 inches of snow in a single storm in the mts of S California, dust storms, ice storms in Memphis Tn. and blistering cold of -25 degrees in wisconsin and my favorite -fog in the bay area so thick you have to get out of your car to see where you were at on the road. I just want to bring my experiences to the table to share with others and to simply tell your forum I am not some crackpot troller

sorry you cannot get a banter thread. LR vs SR threads are a workaround for the banter thread IMHO. I like reading and posting in this forum because the Philly forum posters concentrate too much on NJ. There is a life beyond NJ and their wishcasters for every storm to be a major coastal storm. It seems we are forgotten that nearly a million people live in the Lehigh Valley metro area until there is a major pile up on I -78 or RT 222. At least this forum acknowledges that physical geography plays a vital part in accurate weather forecasting for the LV as the LV is not in the coastal plain.

based on the current short range models, I would expect nothing less than a flash freeze event Friday night and a dusting of snow (2" or less). All I can say is the NWS better play up the flash freeze event and start issuing warnings in their hazardous outlook Thursday night for our area. This rare event is far more dangerous to the traveler than any heavy snow event. I would ask that the NWS work with closely with PADOT in issuing a flash freeze warning for this event, especially on their SMART signs. Too many travelers on Friday night will be in the ditches and will be auto wreck central. I expect I-78 , I-80, I_81 and even RT 22, Rt 222, Rt 309 ,Rt 422 to be a complete disaster. You cannot sufficiently brine the roads in these rainy conditions nor can you salt in time to stop the water from freezing on all road surfaces with the temps dropping into the teens. Salt does not work effectively in temps below 25 degrees. All I can say is the only thing that maybe white this Christmas in our area will be the cars from the huge amount of salt being place on the roads. Car washes will be running full speed on Monday

well, these weather amateur modeologists are finally seeing what happens when you track storms 8-10 days out within the last few years. They fail- every single time. The only useful model is the reining mesocscale map the King- the NAM. These long range models should be thrown in the garbage for storm prediction. They are strictly guidance for future weather patterns- thats it. I think anybody who post these long range clown maps that are 10-15 days out from the GFS, CMC and Euro out should be immediately thrown in the banter thread. Stop relying on them to predict short range storms. Personally, the threads with their appropriate posts should be divided up LR ( long range) and SR (short range) on this site. Let the snow weenies die on the vine in the LR threads and it would restore confidence in the accuracy of the posts

Its hard to ignore this pretty accurate short range model. Notice that South Mtn plays the important demarcation line of who actually gets the snow. While the snow amounts appear high, it has the right idea with my thoughts about the dynamic cooling idea and the physical geography. If this indeed unfolds, many amateur mets will call this event an "overperformer" I call it normal. A WSW should be issued for the LV north if the next three hourly runs hold up to this same scenario.

no way with the demarcation line of heavy snow through Lehigh county with these models. ABE does not get 9 inches while Macungie gets 3 inches. Just does not work that way. These maps are telling me soundings are the key to indicate heavier snowfall. Evap cooling is the key factor. I have many times seen heavy snow at 34 degrees. Also The South Mountains are the demarcation line of heavy snow in this scenario in the LV. Anyone nw of the South Mountain range will get over 4 inches in the LV. I have seen this scenario play hundreds of times in the last 30 years. East Greenville will get 2 inches in northern Montgomery while Shimmerville/Macungie in SE Lehigh county gets over 4 inches.

Nam says up to 5" on the clown map -- 1-2" positive snow depth on the ground. A WWA should be issued tomorrow for 2-4 in for Thursday to be on the safe side. No biggie

its all on the soundings. A cooling profile wherever it sets up will bring down those accumulating fatties in a hurry. Usually south mountain is the demarcation line in these events. Good thing, the ground is cold this time so it should start accumulating real quick. I have seen over a dozen times. Padot will be brining tomorrow afternoon

snow on the ground from RT 100 and RT 309 intersection north. White rain all day in Macungie. Strictly elevation storm

just clarification thanks . I want everyone to cash in on our snow starved area. We need the snow for adequate groundwater recharge for the spring. I would love to wishcast but in reality, a la nina year sucks for us. Three years in a row has virtually destroyed the water supply/river system for the entire country, not just for our area. I would love to see a neutral year next year with arctic area intrusions by clippers every three days and a good nor'easter with drifting snow thrown into the mix. What really concerns however is our area is WAY overdue for a major ice event. The way these patterns are setting up this year for potential overrunning and Miller B's that just might happen. Thanks

NO guilty conscience here- just stating historical analog facts. we will see. By the way I have only called for snow once in the last 30 days and it was just a for a measurable snow for the LV . The other snow predictions I made were mentioned in another thread for the total snow amounts for the year. Thats simple wish-casting. I was predicting weather in the Navy as an air traffic controller before the internet was even born. I do not rely solely on computer modelogy. Sorry

Ralph, not just wishcasting but historical weather patterns playing an emerging and major part for my reason in why I said lock it in for 6+ in for the LV . While the 12' + amounts are suspiciously too high in the clown maps for the LV, the weather pattern and projected snow amounts for this potential event is warily similar to the the 2010 boxing day storm in which the LV received over 6 in of snow. This synoptic weather pattern this week resembles this same pattern before the 2010 boxing day storm snow event as stated from Wikipedia "The storm was difficult to predict due to disagreements between models; it wasn't until about two days prior when the most models anticipated a major snowstorm. The National Weather Service's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and many other private forecasters were skeptical of the storm impacting the Northeastern states until about 24 hours of the storm's arrival as well; although, some models depicted the storm delivering a full-blown blizzard to the New York City metropolitan area as early as a week in advance. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center even issued a statement on Christmas Eve, 48 hours prior to the storm, that they suspected the American models of having model initialization errors; thus, they believed these errors may have forced the storm to be erroneously modeled to come up the Northeastern coast." The real issue IMHO is that storm event was also in December and was in a relaxing La Nina year weather pattern scenario. Models are models but they should always be used as tools to guide our predictions, not to base potential snowfall accumulation ten days out. When I see a weather pattern emerging, I examine historical storm analogies that resemble what the computer models are spitting out. Even though its not perfect way to predict I especially like to use it in fading La Nina years because these years tend to spit out weird storm scenarios, especially when short duration blocking is occurring in the Atlantic. You are right by holding out for another 3-5 days before jumping on the band wagon for a potential KU storm event. The best model to use is the NAM in this situation.

6+ in of snow by next Saturday for the LV. Euro says over a foot- maybe not. Anyway Lock the SOB in with a great chance for a white Christmas.