Albedoman

every GFS model run fakes this or that. This afternoons Euro run is trying to spit out something but it cannot get its act together. Lets face it, when the Euro and Nam both agree at 3-5 days, then we have something, otherwise every model run fits this meme in this shitty pattern.

this what I really think how the pattern will develop

In all my years 15-20 yrs tracking models on the internet, I have never seen the GFSGEm and even the Euro so screwed up as it is right now in showing snow totals for our area at the end of the runs. Absolutely no confidence in anything over 5 days. The last 2-5 days model runs , the 12Z says 12+ and then the 18Z comes back and says zippo. Then the 0Z says 4" and the 6Z comes back with zilcho again. Yes I like snow but I also like rain. The primary rain events appear to be doing the same thing as well now. I guess I would say if nothing pans out between the 23rd and the end of the month for a major snow event, I will be writing off this winter. Yes I know Feb is our snowiest month but I cannot possibly see any consistent pattern developing on the LR in Feb with these models so wishy washy. I want to be optimistic but dam GFS/GEM and Euro throw me a bone and show me 6+ inches of snow in at least 48 hours worth of runs. Sorry for the rant guys but this is getting plain ridiculous to even look at the models over three days looking for LR patterns to develop when we cannot even get consistency from run to run.

this is a better way of saying it

thanks Don. Nice to see in the philly forum. This what i think of the current pattern for the next few weeks but I am sure sometime after the 22-24 period something will give to break it.

I absolutely agree. The window opening is very short and every chance of a storm will be thread the needle in our pattern. The only barn burner for this current crappy pattern is a Mardi Gras special LP forming and riding the southern Apps and then along the coast for true Miller A. Until the LPs form in the southern Miss Valley/GOM, nothing good will come our way according to the Mardi Gras cat

this is how I feel right now:

went washed my car FWIW. Usually its salt, bird crap from the geese flying over. Only 1-2 days of nice full sunshine a week is far worse than no snow right now. This mornings mangled flakes were a joke. I saw more bird crap on my car.

to last nights big snow event -Kahn(Dr No. ) says:

for all the snow weenies out there, its not a woosh you hear, it comes from Khan himself when demanding a nice snow event for our area. LMAO

not much better here. At least here, the hair dryer cord will not be plugged in. If you were looking for a ray of sunshine, you might as well go to Texas. We have seen so many cloudy days in the LV the past month, Allentown is now known as Seattle 2.

Jeez, Have to bring out my broom or leaf blower on this heavy hitter on Sunday night. This event will be all melted and gone before sunset on Monday afternoon and we return back into our dull weather pattern for the rest of the week. The only good thing next week - sunny skies for three days in a row, something we sure did NOT see the last few weeks.

to this crappy and hopeful snow event on Monday- this how we all feel about a measly 1-2 in event https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/9907ef03-de46-4bb2-b1e8-b745a53eaa34

same in Macungie PA downpour but no thunder. Nam is spitting out a chance for snow event for Monday. This is what I think about it

until the LP's hit the western coast, everything in the LR is a crap shoot in this trifecta La Nina pattern. Just keep looking at 3-5 days models out only. It will brighten your outlook. Analog year 49-50 where the temps and the precip were nearly the same as this year thus far. That was a La Nina year too. This means snow will be hard to come by this year any way we look at it. January 1950 Allentown Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) January 1 41 27 0.00 0.0 January 2 42 34 0.00 0.0 January 3 57 37 0.09 0.0 January 4 66 51 0.00 0.0 January 5 59 45 0.03 0.0 January 6 50 40 0.19 0.0 January 7 47 28 0.19 0.0 January 8 29 14 0.00 0.0 January 9 36 13 0.00 0.0 January 10 45 34 0.89 0.0 January 11 47 24 0.00 0.0 January 12 32 21 0.03 0.0 January 13 38 29 0.05 0.0 January 14 57 36 0.02 0.0 January 15 38 24 0.00 0.0 January 16 45 30 0.00 0.0 January 17 38 25 0.00 0.0 January 18 51 28 0.13 0.3 January 19 29 19 0.00 0.0 January 20 30 14 0.00 0.0 January 21 37 23 0.00 0.0 January 22 42 31 0.01 0.0 January 23 46 34 0.00 0.0 January 24 44 38 0.11 0.0 January 25 44 40 0.00 0.0 January 26 72 41 0.05 0.0 January 27 48 22 0.08 0.0 January 28 34 18 0.10 0.0 January 29 46 33 0.19 0.0 January 30 45 31 0.05 0.0 January 31 35 27 0.45 0.5 February 1950 Allentown Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) February 1 32 27 0.13 1.8 February 2 38 30 0.51 0.4 February 3 38 24 0.00 0.0 February 4 39 22 0.00 0.0 February 5 37 21 0.00 0.0 February 6 35 24 0.15 0.3 February 7 39 20 0.00 0.0 February 8 33 7 0.00 0.0 February 9 46 27 0.67 0.2 February 10 39 29 0.13 0.2 February 11 49 29 0.00 0.0 February 12 49 25 0.00 0.0 February 13 37 30 0.85 3.3 February 14 34 31 0.57 0.2 February 15 39 34 0.16 0.0 February 16 42 30 0.00 0.0 February 17 41 30 0.00 0.0 February 18 43 30 0.00 0.0 February 19 42 23 0.01 0.1 February 20 24 6 0.00 0.0 February 21 24 3 0.00 0.0 February 22 27 20 0.21 0.1 February 23 34 23 0.18 0.2 February 24 45 21 0.00 0.0 February 25 29 18 0.00 0.0 February 26 26 11 0.00 0.0 February 27 24 8 0.00 0.0 February 28 34 10 0.01 0.0 March 1950 Allentown Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) March 1 45 25 0.00 0.0 March 2 26 11 0.00 0.0 March 3 27 8 0.00 0.0 March 4 35 7 0.00 0.0 March 5 57 15 0.00 0.0 March 6 44 23 0.00 0.0 March 7 42 15 0.00 0.0 March 8 64 32 1.01 0.0 March 9 35 20 0.00 0.0 March 10 35 20 0.00 0.0 March 11 42 20 0.14 0.3 March 12 50 32 0.01 0.0 March 13 35 30 0.31 0.0 March 14 38 23 0.00 0.0 March 15 49 24 0.00 0.0 March 16 33 22 0.00 0.0 March 17 44 25 0.00 0.0 March 18 40 22 0.02 0.0 March 19 44 17 0.00 0.0 March 20 47 19 0.01 0.0 March 21 43 33 1.06 0.0 March 22 40 34 0.44 0.0 March 23 39 34 0.68 0.0 March 24 50 34 0.00 0.0 March 25 47 30 0.04 0.0 March 26 50 31 0.58 0.0 March 27 48 35 0.01 0.0 March 28 72 48 0.18 0.0 March 29 56 30 0.09 0.0 March 30 42 27 0.00 0.0 March 31 48 22 0.00 0.0

with the Pacific Ocean controlling the storm production in this upcoming week, no one can count on the mid range GFS models. Period!!!! I would say, when snow shows up on the NAM/GEM, then get excited. The ocean lack of buoys in the western pacific are absolutely critical in providing data ingestion for accuracy in long range and especially mid range models. We have to wait for the storms to hit the coast first for more reliable data. This is the old fart way of handling this LA Nina pattern dying situation. This is coming from the ole Navy air traffic controller too. Be patient. By Sunday, we will have a better idea when the MJO swings into phase 8 too whether this new pattern can stay alive.

Finally, here is the best news in the few weeks. The pattern change appears to be coming around the 9th through the 11th. Looks like the ground may be at least white for a few weeks based on the MJO as it rounds the bases and maybe even goes through Phase 1 to 2. Looks real promising.

06 GFS model run is the biggest fricking fantasy event if I ever saw one in the five years-- double barrel LP coastal - one after another. First one rain to mix then to snow. Second LP- all snow. Clown maps say 2 ft of snow- most of freezing rain and sleet cut it by 2/3 and you may have our first legit warning event. This run beats them all for an ultimate fantasy game. Throw it out. Demonstrates how reliable 15 day models are ---NOT. All this indicates is a possible pattern change.

this post ought to light a fire for the snow weenies. The best analog year to the current weather thus far- 1998. ABE got a whopping 4.5 in total in snowfall for the year . Why this analog? check it below. Looks awful familiar as far as temps and precip go to this year. I guess my 30+ in of snow for this winter in another thread has gone to hell in a hand basket. Love the back loading chances too. Zilcho. It was also the summer from hell with little rain and we were in a major drought. Furthermore 1998 was a La Nina year too and we had no snow in February. https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/allentown/year-1998

honestly, in my 40 years of forecasting, I have never seen so many "lake cutters LP's being forecasted in the LR models in a 3-4 week time frame. You would think one of them would run up along the coast. Those poor souls along the Great lakes region will see 48 inches of snow melt down to a foot only to refreeze and pile up again in January. I would not want to have a basement up there as the ground will be supersaturated and flooded. In the meantime enjoy your "January Thaw" in the next two weeks. Expect to see people wearing shorts again around New Years and after. No major snow event on the horizon for us to track in the next 15 days. Time to go get the lawn mower ready LMAO

memphis has rolling rolling blackouts on going now. They cannot handle the cold

my sister in law lives in Memphis. They have rolling blackouts for a metro area. Pretty bad

well here i my official proof- over 50 degree drop with the temps within 12 hours time. Have not seen that since I left wisconsin in the 70's. Nice strong front.