Albedoman

well, these weather amateur modeologists are finally seeing what happens when you track storms 8-10 days out within the last few years. They fail- every single time. The only useful model is the reining mesocscale map the King- the NAM. These long range models should be thrown in the garbage for storm prediction. They are strictly guidance for future weather patterns- thats it. I think anybody who post these long range clown maps that are 10-15 days out from the GFS, CMC and Euro out should be immediately thrown in the banter thread. Stop relying on them to predict short range storms. Personally, the threads with their appropriate posts should be divided up LR ( long range) and SR (short range) on this site. Let the snow weenies die on the vine in the LR threads and it would restore confidence in the accuracy of the posts

Its hard to ignore this pretty accurate short range model. Notice that South Mtn plays the important demarcation line of who actually gets the snow. While the snow amounts appear high, it has the right idea with my thoughts about the dynamic cooling idea and the physical geography. If this indeed unfolds, many amateur mets will call this event an "overperformer" I call it normal. A WSW should be issued for the LV north if the next three hourly runs hold up to this same scenario.

no way with the demarcation line of heavy snow through Lehigh county with these models. ABE does not get 9 inches while Macungie gets 3 inches. Just does not work that way. These maps are telling me soundings are the key to indicate heavier snowfall. Evap cooling is the key factor. I have many times seen heavy snow at 34 degrees. Also The South Mountains are the demarcation line of heavy snow in this scenario in the LV. Anyone nw of the South Mountain range will get over 4 inches in the LV. I have seen this scenario play hundreds of times in the last 30 years. East Greenville will get 2 inches in northern Montgomery while Shimmerville/Macungie in SE Lehigh county gets over 4 inches.

Nam says up to 5" on the clown map -- 1-2" positive snow depth on the ground. A WWA should be issued tomorrow for 2-4 in for Thursday to be on the safe side. No biggie

its all on the soundings. A cooling profile wherever it sets up will bring down those accumulating fatties in a hurry. Usually south mountain is the demarcation line in these events. Good thing, the ground is cold this time so it should start accumulating real quick. I have seen over a dozen times. Padot will be brining tomorrow afternoon

snow on the ground from RT 100 and RT 309 intersection north. White rain all day in Macungie. Strictly elevation storm

just clarification thanks . I want everyone to cash in on our snow starved area. We need the snow for adequate groundwater recharge for the spring. I would love to wishcast but in reality, a la nina year sucks for us. Three years in a row has virtually destroyed the water supply/river system for the entire country, not just for our area. I would love to see a neutral year next year with arctic area intrusions by clippers every three days and a good nor'easter with drifting snow thrown into the mix. What really concerns however is our area is WAY overdue for a major ice event. The way these patterns are setting up this year for potential overrunning and Miller B's that just might happen. Thanks

NO guilty conscience here- just stating historical analog facts. we will see. By the way I have only called for snow once in the last 30 days and it was just a for a measurable snow for the LV . The other snow predictions I made were mentioned in another thread for the total snow amounts for the year. Thats simple wish-casting. I was predicting weather in the Navy as an air traffic controller before the internet was even born. I do not rely solely on computer modelogy. Sorry

Ralph, not just wishcasting but historical weather patterns playing an emerging and major part for my reason in why I said lock it in for 6+ in for the LV . While the 12' + amounts are suspiciously too high in the clown maps for the LV, the weather pattern and projected snow amounts for this potential event is warily similar to the the 2010 boxing day storm in which the LV received over 6 in of snow. This synoptic weather pattern this week resembles this same pattern before the 2010 boxing day storm snow event as stated from Wikipedia "The storm was difficult to predict due to disagreements between models; it wasn't until about two days prior when the most models anticipated a major snowstorm. The National Weather Service's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and many other private forecasters were skeptical of the storm impacting the Northeastern states until about 24 hours of the storm's arrival as well; although, some models depicted the storm delivering a full-blown blizzard to the New York City metropolitan area as early as a week in advance. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center even issued a statement on Christmas Eve, 48 hours prior to the storm, that they suspected the American models of having model initialization errors; thus, they believed these errors may have forced the storm to be erroneously modeled to come up the Northeastern coast." The real issue IMHO is that storm event was also in December and was in a relaxing La Nina year weather pattern scenario. Models are models but they should always be used as tools to guide our predictions, not to base potential snowfall accumulation ten days out. When I see a weather pattern emerging, I examine historical storm analogies that resemble what the computer models are spitting out. Even though its not perfect way to predict I especially like to use it in fading La Nina years because these years tend to spit out weird storm scenarios, especially when short duration blocking is occurring in the Atlantic. You are right by holding out for another 3-5 days before jumping on the band wagon for a potential KU storm event. The best model to use is the NAM in this situation.

6+ in of snow by next Saturday for the LV. Euro says over a foot- maybe not. Anyway Lock the SOB in with a great chance for a white Christmas.

I have a typo error third line should have been Dec 18-24. Regardless, I had 7-12 in before Christmas. The Euro and GEM are leaning in my direction tonight - thats good

Dec 7-9 still trying to spit out something. This weekend just too warm, But my prediction was made on this weekend storm was made 11 days ago. I agree the 15 day GFS forecast are wishful thinking. 10 days on the Euro sniffs out the early potential but the NAM/RGEM 3-5 day short range is usually the best model to rely on for somewhat accurate snow events. Total snowfall accumulation for the storm event- I usually rely on the total snowfall accumulation change in 24 hours only. The clown map is fun to look at if you are wishing for a KU storm every time a snow event happens. Lets face we all like a good continuous 24-48 hour snowfall with thundersnow, high wind advisories and half dollar size flakes.

fwiw December 1-7 no snow avg temps December 8-17 4-6 inches of snow below normal temps December 8-24 3-6 inches of snow below normal temps December 25-31 4-6 inches of snow avg temps January 1-15 6-10 inches of snow below avg temps January 15-31 4-8 inches of snow avg temps February 1-15 8+ inches of snow below avg temps Februray 15-28 6-8 in of snow avg temps March 1-31 4-6 inches of snow avg temps at least 3 storms of 8+ inches with at least one week or more of solid single digit lows or colder in early January. Total snowfall 46 inches for the LV. Snow cover 25 + days

Yep, I agree. On to my next measurable snow event. Thanksgiving weekend is still in the picture for at least a 2-4 inch snow event

bonsai. Measurable snow on my Deck in Macungie. I locked that baby in good.

Bullseye. Sleet mixed with wet snow in Macungie 38 degrees. If the profile cools more, that would be great but I just do not see that happening as the precip is still too light. Well winter has begun.

no biting until the Euro spits out this same map in 4 days

from the lock it in guy two weeks ago: Fantasy storm after Thanksgiving for us on this evenings GFS run. Something is definitely up with the -EPO blocking playing a big part as it starts to relax. Something worth watching over the next week or so. Will not bite until the Euro spits out something similar in the next few days as is is still out of its bullseye range of ten days. Its been a long time since I have seen 2-3 feet for the LV and Poconos accumulations but again this is just a clown map

ABE looks likely to see some wintry precip next week with the blocking. The Euro painted that out this possibility about three days ago and the GFS is consistently is harping on it. Also would not be surprised to see someone in the tri state area to get an an F0 or F1 tornado out of Nicole. . Reminds me a lot of this situation in 2008 with tropical storm Hanna with my location being in the NE/NW quadrant of the storm.

Agree, what I have been eluding to all along Ralph. One storm sets up the other. I maybe wrong on the 16th but we may eventually get some on the 18th. Its depending on how much cold is sucked down our way. Lets hope the GFS and CMC models stay on track. What convinced me was the Euro runs a few days ago showed a solid hit in this time period and the Euro is somewhat accurate sniffing out the potential snow events 6-10 days out. The 16th-18th fell in that time frame.

Nov 16-18, first measurable snow for the LV this season-- lock it in

donut hole right over the LV typical

WOW, a truly western USA mountain valley night here for the LV --29 degree low expected with a chance of freezing fog. Do not see that forecast to often here in October let alone before Thanksgiving. The diurnal range is just incredible almost 35 degrees with low dewpoints and low humidities during the day. Highs in the mid 60s from 29 degrees

those idiots do not realize that loading up ads significantly slows down my time for looking at the radar and seconds are important. Like everyone else has just said- they are now gone from my viewing. Boy are they stupid.