Albedoman

just clarification thanks . I want everyone to cash in on our snow starved area. We need the snow for adequate groundwater recharge for the spring. I would love to wishcast but in reality, a la nina year sucks for us. Three years in a row has virtually destroyed the water supply/river system for the entire country, not just for our area. I would love to see a neutral year next year with arctic area intrusions by clippers every three days and a good nor'easter with drifting snow thrown into the mix. What really concerns however is our area is WAY overdue for a major ice event. The way these patterns are setting up this year for potential overrunning and Miller B's that just might happen. Thanks

NO guilty conscience here- just stating historical analog facts. we will see. By the way I have only called for snow once in the last 30 days and it was just a for a measurable snow for the LV . The other snow predictions I made were mentioned in another thread for the total snow amounts for the year. Thats simple wish-casting. I was predicting weather in the Navy as an air traffic controller before the internet was even born. I do not rely solely on computer modelogy. Sorry

Ralph, not just wishcasting but historical weather patterns playing an emerging and major part for my reason in why I said lock it in for 6+ in for the LV . While the 12' + amounts are suspiciously too high in the clown maps for the LV, the weather pattern and projected snow amounts for this potential event is warily similar to the the 2010 boxing day storm in which the LV received over 6 in of snow. This synoptic weather pattern this week resembles this same pattern before the 2010 boxing day storm snow event as stated from Wikipedia "The storm was difficult to predict due to disagreements between models; it wasn't until about two days prior when the most models anticipated a major snowstorm. The National Weather Service's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and many other private forecasters were skeptical of the storm impacting the Northeastern states until about 24 hours of the storm's arrival as well; although, some models depicted the storm delivering a full-blown blizzard to the New York City metropolitan area as early as a week in advance. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center even issued a statement on Christmas Eve, 48 hours prior to the storm, that they suspected the American models of having model initialization errors; thus, they believed these errors may have forced the storm to be erroneously modeled to come up the Northeastern coast." The real issue IMHO is that storm event was also in December and was in a relaxing La Nina year weather pattern scenario. Models are models but they should always be used as tools to guide our predictions, not to base potential snowfall accumulation ten days out. When I see a weather pattern emerging, I examine historical storm analogies that resemble what the computer models are spitting out. Even though its not perfect way to predict I especially like to use it in fading La Nina years because these years tend to spit out weird storm scenarios, especially when short duration blocking is occurring in the Atlantic. You are right by holding out for another 3-5 days before jumping on the band wagon for a potential KU storm event. The best model to use is the NAM in this situation.

6+ in of snow by next Saturday for the LV. Euro says over a foot- maybe not. Anyway Lock the SOB in with a great chance for a white Christmas.

I have a typo error third line should have been Dec 18-24. Regardless, I had 7-12 in before Christmas. The Euro and GEM are leaning in my direction tonight - thats good

Dec 7-9 still trying to spit out something. This weekend just too warm, But my prediction was made on this weekend storm was made 11 days ago. I agree the 15 day GFS forecast are wishful thinking. 10 days on the Euro sniffs out the early potential but the NAM/RGEM 3-5 day short range is usually the best model to rely on for somewhat accurate snow events. Total snowfall accumulation for the storm event- I usually rely on the total snowfall accumulation change in 24 hours only. The clown map is fun to look at if you are wishing for a KU storm every time a snow event happens. Lets face we all like a good continuous 24-48 hour snowfall with thundersnow, high wind advisories and half dollar size flakes.

fwiw December 1-7 no snow avg temps December 8-17 4-6 inches of snow below normal temps December 8-24 3-6 inches of snow below normal temps December 25-31 4-6 inches of snow avg temps January 1-15 6-10 inches of snow below avg temps January 15-31 4-8 inches of snow avg temps February 1-15 8+ inches of snow below avg temps Februray 15-28 6-8 in of snow avg temps March 1-31 4-6 inches of snow avg temps at least 3 storms of 8+ inches with at least one week or more of solid single digit lows or colder in early January. Total snowfall 46 inches for the LV. Snow cover 25 + days

Yep, I agree. On to my next measurable snow event. Thanksgiving weekend is still in the picture for at least a 2-4 inch snow event

bonsai. Measurable snow on my Deck in Macungie. I locked that baby in good.

Bullseye. Sleet mixed with wet snow in Macungie 38 degrees. If the profile cools more, that would be great but I just do not see that happening as the precip is still too light. Well winter has begun.

no biting until the Euro spits out this same map in 4 days

from the lock it in guy two weeks ago: Fantasy storm after Thanksgiving for us on this evenings GFS run. Something is definitely up with the -EPO blocking playing a big part as it starts to relax. Something worth watching over the next week or so. Will not bite until the Euro spits out something similar in the next few days as is is still out of its bullseye range of ten days. Its been a long time since I have seen 2-3 feet for the LV and Poconos accumulations but again this is just a clown map

ABE looks likely to see some wintry precip next week with the blocking. The Euro painted that out this possibility about three days ago and the GFS is consistently is harping on it. Also would not be surprised to see someone in the tri state area to get an an F0 or F1 tornado out of Nicole. . Reminds me a lot of this situation in 2008 with tropical storm Hanna with my location being in the NE/NW quadrant of the storm.

Agree, what I have been eluding to all along Ralph. One storm sets up the other. I maybe wrong on the 16th but we may eventually get some on the 18th. Its depending on how much cold is sucked down our way. Lets hope the GFS and CMC models stay on track. What convinced me was the Euro runs a few days ago showed a solid hit in this time period and the Euro is somewhat accurate sniffing out the potential snow events 6-10 days out. The 16th-18th fell in that time frame.

Nov 16-18, first measurable snow for the LV this season-- lock it in

donut hole right over the LV typical

WOW, a truly western USA mountain valley night here for the LV --29 degree low expected with a chance of freezing fog. Do not see that forecast to often here in October let alone before Thanksgiving. The diurnal range is just incredible almost 35 degrees with low dewpoints and low humidities during the day. Highs in the mid 60s from 29 degrees

those idiots do not realize that loading up ads significantly slows down my time for looking at the radar and seconds are important. Like everyone else has just said- they are now gone from my viewing. Boy are they stupid.

my bad , it should have been Named Hurricane Hermine

Hurricane Gaston- first weekend in October Cat 3+ downgraded by the time it hits us will bring us our first biggie rain event here in awhile

I agree. That huge low in Alaska is going to bring down some good ole cold fronts in the next few weeks with lows dropping into the 30's. The La Nina pattern is also going to help steer the hurricanes away from our area. The growing season will end early this year. This stubborn pattern creates long duration small accumulations of snow on the ground but constant clippers will keep the snow pack refreshed and cold . I expect the parade to start around Thanksgiving going into December.

good, I hope it stays dead. La Nina patterns are not necessarily mild but they are sure the hell less snowy for our area. The Central US (Missouri, Illinois and northern Kentucky) with the Great Lakes area will get pounded (Indiana, Ohio, NW PA and NY) with heavy snow in this pattern. Usually only one or two good snows(8+ in) are typical in our area and they have to be thread the needle type storms Miller B's or over producing Alberta clippers). Snow may start right after Thanksgiving this year but they will 2-4 inch type snows throughout December. Snow cover may be the real issue(long duration) and a prolong cold outbreak for our area maybe the real issue for us. I see no biggies Nor'easters in our future this year as the GOM is shutoff from LP production in this LA Nina crappy pattern for big snowstorms. If the GOM opens up during the winter, we get one but I am not holding my breath..

This potential (Hurricane Fiona) potential should be taken real seriously. This first look at this storm is almost at the same pressure as Floyd (1999) in almost the same location under similar drier than normal conditions for our area in 1999. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd

by the way, the air is so soupy this morning. Its been awhile for these ripe conditions to form but I really think some good boomers will be popping with some squall lines late this afternoon and into the evening. Its been a long time ( since June?) The drought was killed off this weekend and especially after tonight. Too late for the crops though. Really think an east based La Nina will form in mid November and dump on us this year in December with some really cold outbreaks . Snowfall should be average to just above average from the LV to the NW