Albedoman

to my weather friends: Looks like the low pressure system is going inland instead of along the coast. This means much more wintry slop and less pure snow for Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. The 6-12 inches that I called for late last week is definitely off the table. It appears todays storm was a lake cutter where the low pressure system followed along the eastern Great Lakes up to Canada and brought us plain rain. This approaching storm on Monday will be an Appalachian runner where the low pressure system will be directly over us instead of being just off the coast. This pumps what a call only "refrigerator" and not "freezer" air over us and brings a major winter overrunning precipitation event. We first start off with a thump of 1-2 inches of snow then to a period of sleet and then a prolong period of freezing rain. Total snow/ sleet could be nearly 3 inches when compacted on the grass. Once the precip turns to freezing rain, it will pack down to just an inch of snow on the grass. The roads will be slushy at the most. What may happen is that a serious amount of freezing rain could occur if the cold air hangs out in the deeper valleys and we may see a winter weather advisory or even a winter freezing rain watch/warning. After this storm event passes it will remain dry and cold until around Christmas when another winter slop mess appears on the models. Will keep you informed.

to my weather friends. Are you enjoying the leftover snow and frigid temps today ? Gets in you the Christmas mood. Whats up next? The overrunning plot that I said would happen after yesterdays snow event in my last forecast appears to be happening on cue. A chance of freezing drizzle/rain and or sleet late Friday night into Saturday morning appears to be on the horizon. It should not be much as as the warm air quickly infiltrates all levels of the atmosphere and changes over to rain which will become heavy at times. The temps will agin warm up to the 50's. Another 1.5 to 2 inches of rain will cause flooding along the Little Lehigh Creek and low spots along Spring Creek Rd. Drive carefully The 6-12 inch snow event that I was talking about for midweek next week is still in the picture. It has not gone way. The models are having a very difficult time handling a Miller A type storm event as we have not seen one in many years. A Miller A type of winter storm event is when a low pressure travels up toward our area from the deep south. Placement of that low pressure can give us a lot of snow or simply go out into the Atlantic Ocean and miss us completely (a southern slider). The models are having a difficult time handling the upper area currents right now due to major changes in the upper atmosphere at this time of the year. Predicting when and where this low pressure sets up along the eastern seaboard is difficult so mid range modeling become somewhat unreliable for snow accumulations until we get within three days of the actual event. The fact that we are also on the rain/snow line line makes predicting this event even harder. so stay tune. If this event does happen the ground should be white all the way to Christmas day. There is also another chance of snow actually on Christmas day too.

I have decided to post my forecasts from my facebook page in the banter thread to stimulate some discussion. feel free to discuss and I welcome your opinions to my weather friends: still holding firm with my earlier forecast from last week. It will be warm tomorrow for this time of the year, maybe even hit 60 degrees before the front comes through in the evening with humid breezy SE wind. Then watch the temps plummet nearly 25 degrees after the passage of the cold front with perhaps a thundershower or brief heavy rain shower before changing to a moderate snow in the early morning with a stiff NW wind. My final call for snow accumulation on Wednesday morning snow event is 1-3 inches for the LV. If heavier bands set up between Philly and the LV, we could see some 4+ inch of snow in areas but most if not all will be on the grass. If the snow rates are also heavy enough though it will accumulate on the roads even though they are wet and somewhat warm now.. I still expect a winter weather advisory for Wednesday morning to be issued so please drive carefully. The snow flakes could be huge with good dendritic growth in the heavier snow bands. Anything on the roads will freeze Wednesday evening as highs on Thursday will barely reach freezing and overnight lows in the upper teens. It will feel like winter on Thursday, believe me with a cold wind chill in the air and the ground covered in snow. Long range models are pointing to another possible more significant snow event around the 18-19th time frame. Initial model runs indicate 6-12 inches of snow. This amount could give us a white Christmas. Still too early to say for sure but of course I will keep you informed. This storm is exhibiting the same character and path of a good "benchmark storm" which puts the coastal low in a prime spot for eastern PA to get a significant snow storm. We will see.

watch out for next week 6-12 incher at the benchmark coming your way

It would be more lively if Lehigh Valley and the rest of Eastern PA were welcomed as part of this region. Many posters in this Philly and NY regions consider those who live in the LV outsiders with no home even though over 1 million people live in the Lehigh, Northampton, Carbon and Berks counties. Its strange but we are the third largest metro area in PA with no identity by the American Weather Forum yet the Poconos lies in our area and we are the fastest growing area in the state. There are more people who live in our metro area than some of the U S states. With the geography of our area, widespread different precip types along with different amounts of precip occur every winter. Stop and think why EPAWA does so well here- because Mt Holly and even the American Forum fails to recognize that we are third most populous area in the state with a wide range of physical geography. Every day like others , I must go to the NY metro area, or Mid Atlantic area or even the upstate NY/PA area. Why can't the American Weather forum rename Philly area and call it the Eastern PA forum? That would help bring more posters to this regional weather forum. If you take Philly and the LV areas along , we are talking more population than most of the regions put together. I say rename the forum to Eastern PA and watch it come back to life. Otherwise it, will continue to be abysmal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehigh_Valley

In my 30 + years of looking at potential KU storms, this storm definitely has potential. Showmemthesnow is spot on with his analysis and concerns. The GFS showed a delay in the formation of the LP this morning off the coast which leads me to believe that bombogenesis can occur as the storm retrogrades. To all, this storm reminds me of a similar pattern we all know- Sandy- but further south. I do not know how much cold air can get wrapped up in it yet but beach erosion and coastal flooding sure seems like a good bet right now. This is what the ole timers say is a "keeper" as far as tracking goes. That low in Florida has me really concerned as it can deepen quickly.

Gentlemen, I am growing real concerned about next Sunday- Monday time frame for serious flooding in our area. The GFS say 4-6 inches of rain on the map below. With the snowpack in the LV, that spells bad flooding, especially when the snowpack is holding 2" of water. Comments?

this is the 8+ inches of snow this morning from last nights storm in Macungie PA which gives us little over a foot or so on the ground from the past two storms. More on Friday

I really think there should be much more discussion on the potential overrunning event this upcoming Friday. This has the potential for a real nice thumping of snow greater than 6 inches for most areas in SE PA. My 40 years of weather experience is saying that this arctic weather pattern locked in this week before it crashes by the end of next weekend will give us one last hurrah. The Lehigh Valley we could see almost 16 inches of snow on the ground by next Saturday. if not more. The real cold air on Wednesday morning from the TN Valley High will be replaced by even a colder High over NY by late Wednesday evening. This fresh High pressure sets up another perfect overrunning scenario like this storm but one better- significant arctic cold air is now in place rather than modified Pac air like we have now. Lets see what happens but I think next Friday is a storm where everyone gets a good amount of snow. Any snow that does fall, will fall on frozen surfaces too. Retreating air masses allow for big storms.

I must admit, next weeks weather pattern puts the Lehigh Valley in the bullseye of the accumulating snow events for next week in this morning runs. With the CMC saying 12"+, the FV-3 GFS saying 22", The Icon saying 7", the GFS saying 9"+ the ukie saying 12" + , I say we are going to get some snow this time in the LV, its a matter of which model to believe. If I am betting man, I hang my hats on the CMC and GFS averaged and rely on the NAM 48 hours out. The Euro has just sucked in this range right now all winter long. The Fv-3 GFS absolutely needs to be calibrated correctly as pointed out in earlier posts.

Another "concrete" storm coming to the LV next week. After an inch of two inches of snow on Sunday night, 2-4 more inches with sleet and freezing rain piled for good measures on Wednesday. This is the first year in at least a decade where I could not use my snow thrower as the "concrete" is just too dam heavy. Anyway, I am so tired of model fluctuation. The GFS and Euro said nearly foot yesterday are back down to less than 6 inches. I have come to the conclusion that models cannot handle the CAD AT ALL. They should have a sleet and freezing rain clown maps to prove my point or better yet an overall CAD map with a severity index. Then the snow clown maps would be more realistic. Should not be hard to take the soundings of the major cities along the east coast and combine them into an individual CAD map for easier visualization. If they can do it for snow, they can do it for freezing rain and sleet. And before any one barks. I know they have sleet and freezing rain maps already but an overall "potential CAD Formation Map with a severity ranking"would be nice in the model runs since this feature is not readily apparent to many amateur posters who just look at the clown maps for discussion.

My synopsis of this winter: a big disappointment when it comes to mid range models. There has been absolutely no agreement with 10 day models anymore- they all go which ever way they feel. They are absolutely unreliable, even when trying to sniff out a storm. I have used the NAM as my determining model as it as been the most reliable all winter. Even Dr No has sucked all winter with 10 inches of snow in one model run for 3 days and nothing in the next 3 days than barely anything the last day. With the MJO in stagnation, the overall patterns are stagnant as well with the same wet pattern over area since the end of last June. The pattern looks to get busted in the next two weeks though. I cannot remember the last time I saw a true Miller A storm form and hit our area. The gulf of Mexico LP production has been shut down during the entire winter season with these progressive midwestern lp's cutting up through Great lakes. For next week alone I counted at least 5 LP's cutting up over Lake Ontario. Thats is crazy. No wonder upper Michigan is getting clobbered while the east coast and Boston to Philly have no snow. Whats ironic, is that I see the Pineapple express may open up for business in the next two weeks that actually may kick the shit out of this stagnant pattern for us- I guess better late than never for the potential of snow if we can get enough cold air to to stay over us for longer than 3 days. Otherwise this winter is finished after March 15

for the snow starved NYC posters, just drive less than 90 miles to your west on RT 78 and see 6 inches of blowing and drifting snow with temps in the teens now in Lehigh County PA. Sorry you missed the action today. It snowed from 6:30am all the way to 8:00 pm tonight with no mixing. Feels and looks like winter now.

6 inches at my house in Macungie. Blowing and drifting going to be a big problem tomorrow, especially with the squall. Roads are freezing up pretty good, temps at 19 degrees any slush is frozen now.

My god, when will it end. Playing with confidence levels and probabilities over snow totals was never the intentions of weather forecasting. This is statistical tool to arrive at a snow total forecast. Forecasting is always intended for the safety of the public. Keep on playing with your probabilities and confidence levels for snow totals in order to issue warnings but watch what happens to I-78 between Harrisburg and NYC. People ignore winter weather advisories plain and simple as they are too young to remember what true travelers advisories were. They do however pay attention to warnings. Why, I do not know. When the criteria even comes close to six inches, why not err on the safety of the traveling public and those who work outside? Why does it have to be the other way around? Its like the same old scenario, you have to wait until someone gets killed before putting up a traffic signal. I know I am right after doing this for over 40 years before the internet was even around. Its the overall conditions that warrant the warning, not the amount of snow. Thanks for the rant

MT Holly is dropping the ball IMHO. They overreacted on the winter storm warning two weeks ago, now they are being way too conservative. Two wrongs do not make it right. In the LV 6 inches is considered a winter storm warning event in a 12 hour period. Why not a watch issued then? Why does their map go from 2 inches in Philly to 8 inches in MT Pocono. Err on the safety side for this event This snow will be 180 degree difference from the last storm event as the snow ratios will be much higher as the temps continue to drop as the front has already passed. Salt will not work on the roads after early Tuesday night. Blowing and drifting will be huge issues which are not even being discussed yet they talk about squalls on Wednesday? What comes with the squalls? I say nasty wind gusts and heavy snow, blowing and drifting. Usually we get squalls when we have bare ground with no snow. When a squall goes through this time, it will be a disaster. The public is not prepared for this in the LV and NJ. Rt 78 will have multiple wrecks. I see it coming. 40 years of weather experience says so.

Up here in the LV, I feel pretty confident that we will be getting 4-8+ inches of snow because of the high ratios. The snow is not what concerns me though it is the first time in one hell of a long time ( decades) that blowing and drifting will actually be a factor in driving, especially on the rural roads. IMHO, this makes a better winter than waiting for 2-4 inches of the constant slop or even the 8 inches we had in November. It will truly feel like winter for the first time in years on Thursday and it will go below zero Wed night with the snow cover.

I am absolutely concerned about the next 24 hours. The PWAT at record levels. I have 2-4 inches of water laden snow/sleet glaciers in my yard. The soils are frozen to a depth of at least a foot or more and our super saturated. The amount of water held in those glaciers are incredible. The floodplain is completely flooded as a frozen lake by my house. The forecast of 2-3 inches of rainfall along with the snowmelt on frozen soils will create flooding on our local streams that have not been seen since the last major hurricane. It will a 100% runoff event- no soaking in and no evaporation. Why the NWS is not issuing flood warnings already for the smaller streams is baffling to me. It will happen. I guess they are hoping the forecast two inches of rain will magically disappear. Based on my confidence levels of doing the weather for 40 years, this is a no brainer. Hope none of you have broken sump pumps. Basements will be flooding everywhere too and water will be ponding everywhere up in the LV

I have a physical geography degree in atmospheric sciences. (Did not have meteorology degrees back in the 70's at my college) This has been a serious hobby for me the last 40 years. I have seen this type of frontal setup for us in PA numerous times in the past 25 years. This model run as shown above IMHO is the most accurate of what I think will actually occur. The snowfall amounts seem high but not impossible. The 850 above freezing warm layer will be held back at or near the Fall line. Yes there will be sleet mixed in the LV but that will occur in the heavier banding of snows. The 17" indicated at ABE seems high but it is possible. The record of snowing 5" in an hour rates happened in 1983 at ABE in similar conditions. At this time, many should be looking at the mesoscale models only for mid level temps and especially wind speed and their directions, banding snowfall rates and simply rely on weather history under similar conditions. Trying to figure out the snow/ice/rain transition lines in this type of storm is dam near impossible. The best way I relied on when I was in my 20's was wind direction and analogs of previous storm events. Once the winds changed direction to the SE, in the middle to end of the storm snow accumulations fell drastically as the mix set in - usually sleet and light freezing rain. Hope this helps. This storm has been a real challenge for me. My first call three days ago was 8-14 for the LV and I am sticking to it. I am leaning closer to 8 in if the mix sets up.

why are the gfs models even being looked at? The NAM is deadly at this range and combined with the Euro pretty much tells the story. The GFS is way too warm and MT Holly has indicated that by extending their winter storm watches further SE. The biggest issue is the transition period and how long and that will not be determined until Sat morning runs

Based on the Mt Holly discussion which I agree upon, the 12-18" amount is 50 miles off ( too far north) and should be placed through Carbon County and the 8-14" amount through Lehigh County

any chance you can tell me what it says about the LV? With the mid-levels screaming torch in the Euro, I am real interested to see how much freezing rain/snow. Thanks

Yes, I am real concern that the totals are no where near correct for this storm event even for the clown maps. I believe the clown snow maps of 12-15 inches are way underdone for one reason- the 10:1 ratio will be more like 17:1 or better because of the dropping temps.. Factor those in and you will have a SECS easily maybe even BECS. Look at the dropping temps guys- you do not see that in most storms for our area. You also will see drifting of snow bigtime at those ratios.

I agree with redsky. This is the most horrid winter for heavy rain that I have ever experienced in the last 30+ years in the LV. All I can say is that this year resembles 1983 in all a lot of aspects. A 20+ inch snowstorm in February like 1983 would be an absolute killer right now for the antecedent flooding conditions that exist. The soils are the most saturated that I have ever witnessed and the ground water levels are at the highest levels in almost 100 years of USGS recording in the LV. A 20 inch hard packed and frozen snow base with a 3 plus inch rain event with 50+ degree temps would be as catastrophic as an early summer 7+ inch hurricane (Agnes). This is a real concern right now because I actually see this situation happening in our current weather pattern setting up for February. Every single rainfall over one inch at my house since November has resulted in flooding conditions of the Little Lehigh Creek- yes I said one inch not 3 or 4 inches. There is no more room for to handle runoff into the ground. When the soils begin to refreeze in a few weeks, all hell is going to break loose after the first of manyPacific pineapple express systems start to come ashore, creating one after another MIller A situations. All it takes is one week of below 20 degree highs and near zero lows and anything falling on the ground becomes 100% runoff compounding an existing flooding situation in even a one inch rain. Not good

Look at tonights radar then look at the loop in this article just wow https://www.weather.gov/ilm/Superstorm93