gallopinggertie
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Everything posted by gallopinggertie
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Does seem like it would be passing over or just to the south of Grand Turk now. Oscar’s track reminds me of Joaquin in 2015.
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That’s one I’ve thought about, especially if it stalled over Miami like it did over the Bahamas. Another bad scenario would be if Andrew had made landfall 10 or 20 miles north of where it did.
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I’ve seen a list on wiki of normalized costs for hurricanes, I.e. how much damage a hurricane would cause if it hit today. I’m not sure how complete it is though. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Costliest_U.S._Atlantic_hurricanes_by_wealth_normalization
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Oh sorry, I took it the opposite of how you meant it - my bad.
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I post on a certain other regional weather forum, and some of the people there don’t even believe climate change is real. One of them said these conspiracy theories are the fault of climate scientists. Absolutely unhinged
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Idiocracy.
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There is definitely a lot of loss. I think we will see a final damage tally of tens of billions of dollars from this one (the first preliminary estimate I saw was 30-50 billion, though it seems too early to pin down an exact number). Whereas the worst-case scenario I’m sure would have been well north of $100 billion. It’s wild how these last-minute wobbles and timing issues have such outsize effects on people’s lives and livelihoods.
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I’d suggest having more nuance, Milton wasn’t the worst case scenario but plenty of communities in florida aren’t “just fine” right now either.
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The roof is made of fiberglass coated with Teflon, so I’m not sure if it’s accurate to call it fabric. Also, I’d be concerned about water damage to components of the structure as rain falls on it.
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Milton is about to cross over Florida’s tallest mountain range, the mighty Lake Wales Ridge.
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Wow, is this the first extreme wind warning ever issued for a major city?
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Yeah, it looks to be 3 or 4 hours from making landfall judging by its current speed and heading.
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The difference that occurs to me is Milton is a good bit smaller than Katrina. Though NHC has mentioned several times they expect it to grow in size before making landfall. They’ve also mentioned Milton might already be beginning to make extratropical transition by the time it makes landfall, which is pretty wild.
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I had the same thought, was also surprised by people saying that IKE would be really high for that reason.
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Pardon my ignorance, but how common is a rainfall event like this in western Florida? I thought they were used to torrential rains from summer thunderstorms, but that does sound exceptional.
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
gallopinggertie replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Seasonal ACE in the Atlantic is now higher than in the W Pacific! -
Wouldn’t it be closer to Ian ($113 billion)? The Sarasota metro area has about the same population as the Ft. Myers area. Or are you thinking higher because Tampa will still get bad flooding even with the forecast track to the south of the bay?
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NHC new track is ever so slightly shifted south, with a landfall between Sarasota and St. Petersburg.
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What kind of surge would Tampa get with a landfall just to the south of the bay?
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Is this the smallest cat 5 since Felix in 2007?
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Yeah, wth? Apparently the hospital was built in the 1920’s - can’t believe they never decided to relocate it.
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It really depends on the species. Some birds (like petrels or albatrosses) can fly for weeks at a time over the ocean without stopping! Other species without that level of endurance might not be able to make it.
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I suppose that’s true. I posted a comment there urging people there to take this seriously—hopefully someone reads it and decides to evacuate. If not, well, there’s nothing I can do.
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And the more it weakens, the more complacent people will be, which isn’t good.
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Looking at the r/Tampa subreddit, I’m concerned. Seems lots of people aren’t taking this seriously, brushing it off because “oh it’ll just weaken to a cat 3.”
