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RevWarReenactor

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Everything posted by RevWarReenactor

  1. RevWarReenactor
    The trends north are concerning since we still have a few days. Its not going to take a huge shift to where mixing starts to have a significant impact on snow totals for I-95.
  2. RevWarReenactor
    The temps on the Euro could be cause for concern. The gradient between northern Delaware at 16 degrees and the Beaches 60 miles away at 35 is interesting.
  3. RevWarReenactor
    At some point I think ratios are going to matter with this cold. You can clearly see it on the precip maps where we might get less precip but the higher ratios make up for it in snowfall. I think we are any a great spot and if we have a jump north I assume the cold is not as strong and its mostly a wash with accumulations? Euro AI shows only a 2 inch difference between Fredericksburg and Mon county NJ. A distance of 250 miles.
  4. RevWarReenactor
    You all got hosed considering what was forecast just 2 days ago. Sorry. Not much better 100 miles to your north, unless you consider a coating on the grass a success.
  5. RevWarReenactor
    Now bigger flakes too. All snow.
  6. RevWarReenactor
    Hmmmm colder air is definitely working in already. Light drizzle has turned to light flakes here in Newark De. Earlier we needed rates just to eek out a few mangled flakes. You can clearly see the change. Maybe we are good for 1-2 inches after all
  7. RevWarReenactor
    The further northeast you are the better you will do. North enough to cool down; east enough to get precip. I bet nyc and LI does okay. As you head southwest, less and less. Baltimore and especially dc are probably out of it.
  8. RevWarReenactor
    Nam nailed it. Rain. Hrrr finally folded for the precip this morning. if we get nothing this afternoon. This will have amount to a 2-4 inch wwa for a few flakes mixed in with rain.
  9. RevWarReenactor
    Nws is hilarious they call for a rain snow mix today and 35 with 1-2 inches. How do you get 1-2 inches with a rain snow mix at 35? Then you click on the wwa and it says 2-4 inches. i guess they are covering all their bases. I think this is mostly a rain storm the HRRR is already wrong they said we would be 15 minutes of rain with the change over to snow and we’ve been waiting for about an hour so it’s already Wrong.
  10. RevWarReenactor
    No one has a clue what’s going to happen with this. It’s hilarious. The forecasts are all over the place.
  11. RevWarReenactor
    The amount of people losing it over a 200 + hour gfs run is unreal. It can’t even nail down specifics a day in advance anymore.
  12. RevWarReenactor
    Already down to 31 here. It probably doesn’t matter. Once the clouds come in it will likely recover. Still already 3 degrees colder than they said it would be
  13. RevWarReenactor
    The models are absolutely horrible with tomorrow’s event it’s just been atrocious
  14. RevWarReenactor
    Normally I wouldn’t care what it has to say but it nailed precip types on the Dec 26th storm.
  15. RevWarReenactor
    Yeah im not sure where the disconnect is. This is a panel off the 12z GFS. Its snows, lightly, for nearly 8 hours tomorrow. This looks like far more than an inch. Its not a major storm. But that is screaming 2-4 inches for eastern areas.
  16. RevWarReenactor
    Mt Holly is not at all impressed with tomorrow. Not sure why. Are temps the issue?
  17. RevWarReenactor
    Yeah they will be playing catchup today if the trends continue or if it even holds here.
  18. RevWarReenactor
    We really need two threads now. The nowcasting of this mouse fart is drowning out what looks to be a decent snowstorm tomorrow.
  19. RevWarReenactor
    Its been a long time since something has trended in our favor right before the event. Maybe its not done?
  20. RevWarReenactor
    Oh that is quite a step back. Next run it will be in line with the euro. Garbage model
  21. RevWarReenactor
    It did? Looks about the same as 6z to me. Maybe a slight tick east. Still okay here if I’m setting expectations at 1-2 inches. But yeah- it’s not a reliable model anymore.
  22. RevWarReenactor
    I don't even know much about the science behind it all, and I am a pessimist, but even for me its obvious the potential is there this year. This year has actually been "good". No shutouts, no endless SE ridge and torch. Its obvious the upcoming couple weeks are our best opportunity in years and if we actually walk away from it with nothing, like PSU said, time for a new hobby.
  23. RevWarReenactor
    Is there anything to push that boundary south next weekend? Otherwise it looks to be setting up heartbreak. After a cold week, Great snows just to our north on the 6z GFS. That wouldn't be fun.
  24. RevWarReenactor
    Until Early February, then Valentines is the period to watch, then its actually late February. Then its early March, remember, it can snow in March! Then people keep tracking potential but they are really just tracking spring. Meanwhile we got like 2 inches on the grass during that time. Happens every year. Last time things were actually good was 2014-2015 season; outside of the blizzard of 2016.
  25. RevWarReenactor
    Its kind of interesting how the GFS did the same exact thing with the Thursday storm. Bringing it back on day 4 only to quickly take it away. Also happened to a lesser extent with the Dec 26th storm. Plus no ensemble support. Is something wrong with this model?
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