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RevWarReenactor

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Everything posted by RevWarReenactor

  1. RevWarReenactor
    Its just a huge step back from the 6z. But a lot actually. Its not that its bad, its that the model has changed significantly.
  2. RevWarReenactor
    They are slowly stepping down their totals.
  3. RevWarReenactor
    Its not any better with delmarva. There was outrage last year, people ain't seen nothing yet. Im betting bills are going to easily be over $1000 a month for many. Some days its so bad, its actually cheaper to go stay in a hotel than it is to heat your house.
  4. RevWarReenactor
    Obviously I don't buy what the Euro is selling on the freezing rain, that being said, it appears as though freezing rain chances are increasing. I see it on the GFS and HRRR for sure. Not great.
  5. RevWarReenactor
    But this is morphing into a nowcasting event, short range models, and ops. I love the HRRR, wrap that baby up and call it a storm, but I don't buy it.
  6. RevWarReenactor
    Climo says we waste the rest of the cold and just have high heating bills and this storm to show for it. What are the chances of a 2010 redux? That is like a once in 100 year type thing at best.
  7. RevWarReenactor
    I refused to sign a TW agreement. Why would I enter into one that only benefits the employer? Snow day for me! Hopefully we get at least a delay Tuesday as well.
  8. RevWarReenactor
    Anyone else notice the NAM has a West/East transition to sleet whereas basically all other guidance has a NE/SW orientation. Whats that about?
  9. RevWarReenactor
    NWS has been over forecasting for this area for quite sometime. I can count at least 5 storms in the last 10 years where they where saying 3-6 or even 4-8 and I got a dusting on the grass. Furthermore, the mixing ALWAYS happens way quicker than forecasted.
  10. RevWarReenactor
    LOL, the last page of the regular thread is hilarious. PSU is like, no snow all sleet on the NAM, and others are like "NAM looks better". I think people are going crazy TBH.
  11. RevWarReenactor
    Here is Newark Delaware we made it to 10 years without a 6+ inch snowstorm. But it appears the record will only hold for a few days.
  12. RevWarReenactor
    Agreed, it is still going to be a great storm. IF the Euro verified with that kind of Fr rain, it would be catastrophic.
  13. RevWarReenactor
    Euro still loves that freezing rain warm nose. Just don't see it. Obviously we flip on I-95. But to freezing rain? We need to hurry this storm up already, the models keep getting warmer and warmer. I honestly think this plays out on I-95 with about 6 inches and a fairly quick flip to sleet.
  14. RevWarReenactor
    NAM gets DC awfully close to Uccellini's call of being better off in Chicago. Yesterday we said he was nuts- who is laughing now.
  15. RevWarReenactor
    We are a little over 2 days out. This isn't a week away. If things trend that bad in that short of a time period, that would be a failure on the models of monumental proportions. Its unlikely.
  16. RevWarReenactor
    Meh- once you take 12+ off the table; additional shifts don't yield that much less snow. Its would take shifts of hundreds of miles to skunk on anything less than 6 inches. So just set expectations accordingly. This is probably 6-9 for the metros followed by sleety.
  17. RevWarReenactor
    The December 26th storm did this. The NAM nailed the sleet in central Jersey when GFS was saying snow. The mix line always tends to punch north faster and further than what the GFS says.
  18. RevWarReenactor
    Yeah but its the NAM at 84hours. Thats like the GFS at 144 isn't it?
  19. RevWarReenactor
    Really glad to see the Euro held overnight and even ticked south. Seems like things are starting to solidify for I-95 for 6-12 inches depending on the mixing. Would take a drastic shift to go under 6 inches IMO. Freezing rain could make things ugly though. Especially since temps crash afterwards. Really hope the back end stuff on the GFS verifies.
  20. RevWarReenactor
    One more jump and I-95 is looking at significantly reduced snow totals. This probably ends up being 5 inches and then sleet and ice.
  21. RevWarReenactor
    @psuhoffman says everything came together perfect for 2016. I only got 10 inches from that storm. The dry slot was miserable and all up Delaware and the South side of NJ It wasn't that great of a storm. There is easily potential to do better with this one.
  22. RevWarReenactor
    I remember the blizzard of 1993. It was a foot of snow. Followed by freezing rain and then a deep freeze. Everything was a block of ice. It took 10 times as longer to shovel it, basically hitting it with an axe. You could actually stand on top of the snow without sinking into it.
  23. RevWarReenactor
    If PSU says the worst case is a 6 inch front end thump followed by sleet, ice, back to snow, and cold. Thats a pretty good day. Maybe not a historical storm, but still something to be excited about.
  24. RevWarReenactor
    That would most likely put a ton of mixing issues into the I-95 cities if you extrapolate it.
  25. RevWarReenactor
    Credit where credit is due. You called this first. AMped system. Mixing problems.
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