RevWarReenactor

Yes

That was kind of where my head was with it perhaps. I guess technically speaking you might have won by the skin on your teeth. Although it could potentially be debated as to whether this qualifies as a 3+ inch storm to track since models are both above and below that mark at times. Could go either way I guess. But the overall pattern certainly did not evolve as planned. So I’m good with a draw! Thanks for the bet! It was fun!

33 at night I think its okay. Anything more than that, Id be concerned. But we can do 33.

Coudl potentially be the biggest snow of the year for some. We had 4.2 on Jan 19, 2024. Could beat that.

Whats up with the HRRR? Its all north and stuff, has the old screw job precip orientation where it is snowing in Massachusetts before DC. Only 1-2 for DC, Central Jersey is 4-6. Strange.

Only 12 inches from that here in Newark Del. I think we got the minimum for that storm.

No-but you are on the right track. Let me just say my experience with Dave is that he is actually MORE unhinged in person than he is online. I might not want to say more out of thread derailment and that is known to threaten litigation of things said about him.

Yes- at the eastern conference in 2009.

I met JB over 20 years ago. He use to have these "gatherings" which were super weird. He'd just put in his accuweather blog "I am going to be at restaurant XYZ at 10am on Saturday". Like 50 weather weenies just showed up at a restaurant, ordered nothing. And he'd walk in 30 mins late, rant about how winter was coming and all this BS for about 20 minutes and then he'd leave. There was a certain celebrity status amongst the weenies over his presence. I guess I was part of that. I got my photo with him. He saw I was young and asked what college I went to, I stumbled because of nerves and when I did answer he thought I was lying. He gave me a weird look. Even my Dad who was present was like "he thought you were lying". Decades later I've come to realize how ridiculous it all was. Also ask me about the time me and DT went to breakfast in Rhode Island at an Eastern conference. Just me and him. That was something.....let me tell you.

Ouch. Believe me I take no joy in being right. But climo is climo.

Back on Feb 1st I said there would be no epic pattern change and that we'd be sitting here on Feb 15th with the same old same. I was right, the entire model thread full of experts and mets was wrong. That is really all you need to know honestly.

LR modeling has be atrocious at best. Far better accuracy just looking at climo and making a forecast off that.

Everyone should savor Friday nights possible 1-3 inches. Enjoy it in good health and in good times. Because that is probably it for the year. Another below average year. But hey, at least we might crack 10 inches? 30+ inches and epic patterns LMAO!

Is track THAT important? Seems like widespread coverage. Its not like the storm yesterday that turn SE NYs 12-18 inches into 1-2 inches. Such a small margin for error.

Glad I chased today’s storm. I’d literally be bonkers right now if I hadn’t. I don’t know how you all do it. Even having to leave up here in NW New Jersey and going back to Delaware is triggering me. Especially after glancing at the model runs. We just don’t do winter anymore.

So going from 12-18 inches to 1-2 inches in south Ny ain’t no big deal lmao!

You are in the razor edge of good stuff . Places like Kingston and new paltz have virtually nothing.

I see that’s fair I guess. But north of I-84 is historic bust territory. So bad it should be talked about for years type bust.

Not understanding these posts. Yesterday southern Ny was supposed to get 12-18 inches in spots. Those areas are now getting 1-2 and even that might be high.

Yeah ended up in Mahwah. This is a great spot for it but still pretty underwhelming. We have a few inches. Maybe it gets better? Sure is a narrow area that is cold enough enough to stick but not so far north it’s just flurries. They really messed this one up. Lol

People need to stop looking at these clown maps in marginal temps. Take the number it shows and divide it by 2 and then take that number and divide it by 2. No way coastal Nj is getting anywhere near those numbers. Lots of no stick and white rain.

Already doing so. Mahwah now. Will not book hotel till this is decided

Well not so sure now maybe things are starting to turn in your favor just goes to show you how unpredictable the weather can be

Setup shop in New Paltz Ny for the storm. Exciting! I don’t know why more people don’t chase. I was here in a few hours. It’s like nothing compared to the amount of time people spent chasing fictional pattern changes 2 weeks out. Looking like 8-12. But anything over 6 inches will be a win.

Shooting for Plattsburg NY. Will be very flexible. Sleeping in the car, even down into the teens at night, no longer bothers me.