NEG NAO

how do you get 40's and 50's from this on March 1 ?

yes its already Feb 20

Tonight 2 - 6 flakes Likely . Chance of flakes 70 % They used to call the TV Show Seinfeld "The show about nothing " the lasted storm thread was 59 pages about nothing" in NYC metro.. Amazing how all of us including Red Taggers and other color taggers and even the NWS get suckered in most times to believing long range range models..... usually it is the GFS leading the way but this time was the EURO

Sunshine Likely - 70% chance

huh ? precip is above normal this month at Central Park after this past weekend storm and another storm next week

that has to be some sort of record -- 12 snowfalls worth 16 inches........in one season

IMO I don't think we will have a good handle on this and how this is going to move up along the coast until the energy is transferred from the Gulf to the southeast coast and the precip field develops and how much territory it fills and the movement of it - and exactly how the upper low is behaving..........

Yes the NAM is based on the LP being dragged west by the upper low - but in this scenario even if that doesn't happen there is still more then 1 way such as the Norlun possibilities or just the strong dynamic upper low passing overhead of getting accumulating snow in NYC metro - I think Walts idea previously of 2 -6 inches powder is still on the table IMO.....

its an outlier right now but what if other models start bringing the storm back west just a hundred miles ??? makes a big difference especially close to NYC - still plenty of time for adjustments and as I mentioned last night the models have handled this storm poorly since last week also norlun trough and strong upper low has to be considered -- Norluns are difficult to predict in advance

IMO anyone who thinks they have a handle on this situation right now ___ _____ ______ ____ ___ ___fill in the blanks

This is the point at around 66 hours NYC metro has the opportunity of a period of steady snow as the northern stream feature passes overhead - unfortunately this northern upper level feature doesn't phase with the southern branch until too far offshore - all of the heavier snow down in the southern mid-atlantic is being caused by a strong southern upper level system

there will be changes in that snowfall map one way or the other since this storm is so disorganized and questions about exactly where the energy will be transferred to along the east coast and many variables regarding intensity and track and the size of the precip field and the chance of a westward expansion of any norlun trough that develops which could expand the precip field further west then modeled considering the models since last week have had a weak handle on this whole situation and the storm is still a little more than 2 days from reaching here and is in the early development stages out west and will be transferring energy at different points as it moves into the Gulf region and off along the southeast coast - impossible for any guidance to be accurate at this point IMO

Which locations are NW to SE since there are many differing opinions here regarding that ?

50 mile adjustment north and west = MECS in NYC metro --- lets see how many EPS members are 50 miles north and west of the OP

still not certain what is causing it to make the turn from the Gulf up to Hatteras then fade out to sea - maybe once the system comes on shore out west in a couple model cycles MAYBE new data will begin to change that back to closer to the coast at this LAT...

at least 5 in the benchmark zone still

exactly !

Today is going to be the day of mass confusion here as the models will be all over the place or all begin to miss when the LP makes a hard right turn out to sea

at 84 hours they all look good wait and see what happens with the LP once it passes Hatteras....

please explain why ????? seems to me everything looks great with the track until it gets past Hatteras and then fades out to sea- whats causing that ?

read Walts post above - he is thinking a 2 - 6" powder event - right now thats the most reasonable prediction unless new data today proves otherwise..of course IMO

its still a moderate snowstorm at least for the immediate metro - and still could be more then that - doubt it will be less then what we are seeing modeled now on the EURO IMO - Overall I think the Euro's have the best handle on this entire situation right now....

individual members all over the place - that tells us something - they are still going to adjust to more of a consensus as we inch closer to showtime