CheeselandSkies

Already a notable shift south from the previous 0Z run which had a big dog for S. WI. I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp at this point.

4.6" would be right up there for us this winter.

I know, right?

Man, that broad belt of vigorous 500mb SW flow east of the Rockies on the GFS about 5-7 days from now would be awesome if it was A/M/J. Someone in the sub might still have to keep an eye out for an overachieving early season severe event, although it'll more likely be in the Dixie jungles.

Our hotel is right across from it. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

While some are complaining about the lack of cold air, I'm wondering why it's basically the same temperature (mid-30s) and sky conditions (overcast) in southern Ohio as I left in Madison. 35 is mild by Wisconsin January standards, so you'd think it could be like in the 50s here, but nooooooo. Also been getting snow showers (melting on contact with the pavement) most of the day. - Currently in Dayton for my fiancee's brother's Air Force promotion. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Just in time to make it keep snowing through the end of April and virtually eliminate the storm chase season, just like 2018.

I sure hope not. Driving to SW OH (Dayton) and back for a family event late next week (Thursday-Saturday). As of yesterday GFS and Euro both painted upper 30s-low 40s and negligible precipitation.

What else is new this winter? Although, I'm fine with that since I already postponed my birthday celebration due to snow (was on Friday 1/17) until next Friday, so would just as soon not have to do it again.

Thankfully.

That's the one thing that did perform pretty close to my expectations. Over 900 wind reports over the two days plus at least three brief but strong (EF2+) tornadoes with embedded supercells. The whole discrete supercells ahead of the line thing always seemed like more of an outside chance than a bona fide threat with this event, to me at least. Lots of soundings with shear vectors parallel to the front, even if there wasn't gnarly VBV in the vertical profile, and the speed shear made for extreme amounts of SRH.

Possibly, but it seems all the expected big dogs last winter (including the one at the end of April, lol) verified on the low end of expected totals.

Over 700 wind reports over the two days. Impressive serial derecho.

@madwx @DanLarsen34 When was the last WSW event for us that actually verified with totals meeting the criteria?

That can't be right. There were at least that many F4+ in the state on April 16, 1998 alone, plus several E/F3+ on days like Veteran's Day 2002, May 4, 2003, Super Tuesday 2008, and April 27, 2011.

WSW downgraded to WWA for Dane. This system has confirmed for me that models are pointless. I quit.

That's about what I expected for today based on some of the issues I saw in forecast soundings. Storms have been intermittently severe with a few confirmed tornadoes, none particularly long-lasting or violent-potential-appearing (in contrast, to, say the 62-mile track beast of December 16th). Not that warnings shouldn't be taken seriously, especially at night.

TDS with the western AR cell. I'd post a radar image but my attachment limit is capped at 0.16 MB.

That is one gnarly tornado-warned LEWP. With it being so close to the radar, hard to tell if the CC is showing a TDS or just noise.

@DanLarsen34, what are you seeing?

Pingers, pingers, we've got pingers.

TDS is just NW of Keys, OK.

Crowder, OK cell has my attention at the moment, moreso than the Muskogee one. Rotation looks tighter on that one.

1630 out early, little change.

Yeah, that is a lot less 850-500mb veer-back than was shown in most NAM forecast soundings 24-36 hours ago. Much more favorable wind profile in the low to mid levels.