CheeselandSkies

36 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

06z GFS is showing potential for the 4/23-4/28 timeframe. 

It's only 300~ hours out...

Nice to at least see signs of potential life.

2 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Reports of 8 homes destroyed (manufactured/mobile homes?), 1 fatality, and multiple injuries from there 

Yeah, I was just watching the aerial video on that linked from Talkweather. Based on the street he named and looking at Google Maps, it looks like it actually missed Palmetto proper to the south. There's a school, post office, two churches, and several businesses in addition to many more homes there.

9 hours ago, TexMexWx said:

Well, I noticed a lot of SVR watches over the 10% but a TOR watch just got issued for basically the 10% hatched area. Still also found the earlier watches a bit unusual, but given how I can really only recall one tornado actually confirmed at this point in time, I guess it was the correct decision overall. Hoping we don't have any strong tornadoes overnight given that the ingredients are still favorable over southern LA/MS where the new tornado watch just got issued, going until 7 AM.

LOL, they must have issued that right after I posted and went to bed. Sounds like there was a destructive tornado at Palmetto, LA although it doesn't show as a tornado on the SPC LSR page...yet.

Does anyone find odd the lack of any tornado watches covering a 10% hatched area on the convective outlook? Especially since they routinely issue red boxes for 5% contours.

26 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I agree. It is undeniable. Springs are not what they used to be here in the OV. 

I just didn't think it would be so abrupt, and so dramatic. I mean, every damn year?

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not the same thing.

I live in an area with a decent amount of people of color, and I can't remember the last time I saw one without a mask.  

I'm going to guess that access to a mask is easier than access to a vaccine at present.

Oh, I'm sure it is. I don't disagree on that at all.

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

It's already starting though.  Was just reading a story yesterday about some places in Las Vegas.

I think a "passport" though by definition would be something that is required for international travel, or for certain privileges at the federal level (access to airports or Amtrak trains, for example). Surely individual businesses should be able to decide if they will require proof of vaccination for entry, the same as they could flout shutdown orders or declare themselves "mask-free zones" in the name of running their business as they see fit?

Unlike @StormchaserChuck!, they are not calling for an El Nino. Weak Nina to neutral at the most.

4 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

It's a lot easier to take a "cool" period when its mid to upper 50's. 

Leaf out is going gangbusters here, about 3 weeks ahead of schedule. You can nearly watch the grass grow all of the sudden. The cool, wet pattern is really beneficial to the sod and seed I put in at the new crib last fall. 

It's nice to watch the Masters without seeing snow outside. 

Yes, all of this. Coming out of work at 12:30 this afternoon it felt very much like an early spring (yes, believe it or not it is still quite early for us) day should feel. 80s is too warm, and anything where you're talking about snow is too cold at this point (in my opinion, anyway).

I find it slightly irksome that we're now in this climate pattern where you can get mid-70s or warmer at this latitude in early April and not "pay" for it in the form of a outbreak.

If this cell cycles up again and threatens to produce; it's going to do it right in the worst of the radar hole equidistant from POE, DGX, LIX and LCH. How typical.

11 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Storm of the day at 10:00. Not ideal 

Looks like a couple of abortive cycles now but this last one got real close to a significant near Mansura.

35 minutes ago, madwx said:

Nice line of thunderstorms popping up over Dane County and expanding westward.  Looking like I’ll get hit by it 

Forming north of here and moving north.

Band arcing NE toward the QC looks to be running out of gas, too. @cyclone77 might at least see some downpours and rumbles out of it but we in southern WI will be lucky to get even that.

What else is new?

1 hour ago, cstrunk said:

Well today looks like an Enhanced Bust.

Down to Slight on the 01Z update.

Possible tornado near Galion/Bonita, LA was earlier reported radar confirmed, although the latest warning statement downgrades to the standard "radar indicated rotation" it still shows as a TORR on GR Level 3.

Cell down near Fort Polk, although only severe-warned at the moment, is fairly robust, discrete and might have the best chance of anything yet today.

12 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

Well today looks like an Enhanced Bust.

Yep, AR activity has mostly remained anemic and disorganized. Not enough heating/more capping than anticipated?

20 minutes ago, madwx said:

need some rain here.  gotten nothing from this system so far

I recall a brief thunder-shower around 9 AM yesterday, but that's it in Madison. Green/Rock/Walworth counties got the small but vigorous lightning producer before dawn Monday.

Earlier showers crapped the bed as they moved into southern Wisconsin, but west of here might have gotten a bit.

Also svr wind report earlier from Ixonia in Jefferson Co. @Geoboy645, see anything?

Marginal expanded north to IL/WI border (the brick wall of storms). Activity moving north toward the QC looks more vigorous than anything in the Enhanced risk area, lol. (Edit: Except the tornado-warned cell in northern LA)

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like the snoozefest continues for the foreseeable future.  Man, what a benign spring. 

Yeah, it's annoying but it's still early for us and at least it's nice out. The worst (which we seem to have seen a lot in recent years) is when a winter pattern decides to show up right around the spring equinox and persist for most of April. As posted elsewhere, any upcoming cool-down looks to be to near/slightly below normal rather than much below.

3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Western PA folk like myself aren’t particularly active on here outside of snow season. My ratio is probably getting dangerously close to falling below the 2:1 ratio.

P.S. How’s the weather in Madison these days? As a UW alum who got to experience that epic ‘07-08 winter, has anything close to that happened since?

There was a pretty rockin' stretch from late January through the first three weeks or so of February this year. 2007-'08 is still my favorite winter though, despite the occasional torches/thaws. My interests definitely lean toward the "sustained storminess" rather than the "sustained cold/snowpack" column. I was going to UW-Green Bay at the time but spent the long winter break with my parents in Stoughton.

3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

I strongly hope I’m wrong, but this year feels like another 2012 (the last year I lived in Wisc.).

Not even close (yet). Morch 2012 was to monthly temperature anomalies what April 27, 2011 was to tornado outbreaks; and it set the theme for the rest of that spring and summer. We also had no appreciable snowpack throughout that entire winter, while we had a solid one throughout February this year although the late month thaw steadily gobbled it up by the first few days of March.

Captured some pretty good lightning with one of our skycams at work this morning. Our meteorologist on duty put some of the highlights on Facebook:

https://fb.watch/4GOJAuYVat/

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

RH made it down to 16% for a time today at ORD...Which was only a few % off the record min.

My bleeding hands feel every bit of it. Cannot wait for things to moisten up a bit.

53 minutes ago, Guest said:

Prediction: this thread will be going 10 years from now as the Czeck variant sweeps the world causing people to shit themselves non stop proving those that hoarded toilet paper in year one of the virus were ahead of the curve.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

Well, aren't you just a little ray of sunshine?

12 minutes ago, luckyweather said:

 

marveling at the astounding departure from normal during that month and the subsequent google-ing for any insight is what led me to this board. Have never been a part of such an extreme long duration meteorological event and while I believe CC is intensifying, I doubt I’ll live through another event of that magnitude in this lifetime. This March wasn’t even remotely close. Thanks for the reminder of that amazing event.

 

The OG of Morch.

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Yes, but I hope by the end of the year I no longer have to do it.

Same.