CheeselandSkies

39 minutes ago, South Shore Slop said:

 At Mass. General, for example, about 30 percent of COVID patients are at the hospital primarily for some other reason — but also happen to test positive for COVID. They are mostly asymptomatic.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/04/business/massachusetts-hospitals-filling-with-covid-patients-still-have-space-more/

That's how my fiance and I found out we had it. It didn't really hit her until the next week.

3 hours ago, Gino27 said:

Big thing to watch is if the models keep moving the goal posts with them. If a SSW keeps showing up at the end of the run, it's not valid. If it gets closer as time goes on, it might be legit.

It'll happen in February just in time to kill chase season...again.

2 hours ago, andyhb said:

Curious if we see an uptick in severe weather potential later in winter given some of the parallels to years like 2007-08 (which saw significant tornado outbreaks in Jan-Feb including a historic one Feb 5-6) and 2011-12, which saw several significant events in Jan-March, including the back to back Leap Day and major 3/2 tornado events.

Seems like general consensus for a number of forecasts I’ve seen is for western troughing/eastern ridging to become more prevalent Jan-Feb, which would favor that.

We also have a significant drought across much of the SW, which is liable to yield enhanced capping due to EML advection, which is often a caveat in winter given the likelihood of strongly-forced synoptic scale waves.

Certainly interesting times ahead although it remains to be seen whether that translates into an active Plains/Midwest spring chase season which it did in 2008, not so much in 2012 where drought/capping dominated everything after a couple of early outbreaks.

2 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

I thought La Nina years were supposed to be active.  This snoozefest needs to go.

Right?

Roughly 1 American every minute is dying of this thing. It's causing the equivalent of a 9/11 or Hurricane Katrina every 2-3 days.

bUT IT haS a 99.5$ survIval RAtE...

The problem is, when you have such an enormous number of cases, 0.5% of that is still a big number. That (plus the several more percent who get severely ill but survive) is also more than enough to burn out every ICU doctor and nurse in the country.

1 hour ago, Gino27 said:

What's it like to live here you may ask?

What's it like to be a TV met there?

Not too excited about what this system and the other ones coming down the pipe have had to offer in the severe department especially considering what this time of year is capable of (11/10/02, 11/15 & 27/05, 11/17/13, 12/1/18).

6 hours ago, madwx said:

Parachutes falling outside right now.  About an inch on the ground 

Nice flocking on the windward side of trees, signs and other objects.

First Snow of Winter 2020-21 by Andy, on Flickr

First Snow of Winter 2020-21 2 by Andy, on Flickr

20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What?!  We always get the rug pulled out on phasing progged in the med-long range.

FIFY.

It would seem insane RI close to land is not just an Atlantic/GoM phenomenon this year.

I suppose...but that's kind of a low bar.   In summer, do we only expect "shots of warmth"?  No...we expect it to be warm and summerlike throughout summer...not just "a few weeks of transient warmth". 

Seasons in seasons.  DJF should be wintry simply because it's DJF...not because of whether a certain pattern exists.

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23 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

You know what's another really horrifying fact. That our death toll is now basically equal with Madison's total population. That means we have lost an amount of people equivalent to the entire city of Madison in all of 8 months. Holy s*** that is a lot of people just gone now. And that is not even talking about excess deaths and the people affected by all of these deaths.

Edit: Or for all of you don't know how truly big that is. That is equivalent in Ohio to 92% of Toledo just being gone. Or in Illinois it would be the new 2nd largest city in the state. Or in Indiana it would be 93% of Fort Wayne. It would be the new largest city in Iowa. You get the picture. It's an unimaginably large number that is just going to get higher quicker unless we do something.

From the beginning it caught my attention that COVID-19 was causing daily death tolls in Italy greater than just about all the weather disasters in the U.S. this century apart from Hurricane Katrina. That's when I knew this was no flu.

5 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Where the hell is Trump?

Rage-tweeting and spamming lawsuits in MI, PA, WI, GA, AZ and NV.

5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Texas is looking like New York with theses numbers. This is getting very ugly 

My fiancée's father lives in San Antonio. He's in his 70s with multiple health issues (diabetes, kidney dialysis) Part of our reasoning for postponing our wedding (which should have happened this month) was to avoid potential exposure to him and other high-risk people in the family so they can be around when we have it next year.

As a *not* winter-lover, I saw "record strong polar vortex" and freaked out a bit...then remembered a strong vortex is what keeps the cold bottled up to the north, right?

Thankfully, "Marco" turned out to be a big ol' nothingburger (it was supposed to be part of the much-ballyhooed "double trouble" of late August), so the call-and-response can possibly occur again in 2026.

What was the total snowfall in 2011-12 there? I always find it strange that every year when a mild pattern is showing up some start fearing 2011-12 lol. I actually don't fully disagree with you, I think its going to be a roller coaster of ups and downs, but I will be shocked if a stormy nina fails to materialize and snowfall ends up as bad as you fear 

15 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

My God! This is the man advising the president on this pandemic. Totally irresponsible for someone in his position to post something like this

How about rise up against the f***-ing VIRUS?

16 minutes ago, Morris said:

964mb on the dropsonde. 

Winds up significantly. 89kts FL and 82kts unflagged SFMR. 

Wrong thread.

Very dynamic windstorm for tomorrow. Would not take much to mix these winds down

Not a bad pattern on the 18z gfs run. Interesting times ahead Imo

Nina winter could go either way, at least for southern Wisconsin. Could be epic like '07-'08, could be MIA like 2011-12.

Personally I'm fine with the Twin Cities getting all the fun in November while we remain relatively mild.

38 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Masks are not going to protect you 100%, especially if you are in close contact with someone indoors for hours with poor ventilation. Even in that situation they can reduce viral load though,

Exactly. The greatest benefit is if both you and the infected person are masked. Second best is if the infected person is wearing a mask. If just you are wearing a mask (assuming it's not a N95) the benefit is considerably reduced but non-zero.

15 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Satellite makes it look like it's coming right back towards South Florida. Lol. It is east of the cone, but probably won't miss the track by that much.

It did appear to be moving east-northeast for a time, but now looks to be finally on a more northerly course.

I guess one aspect of today's weather I didn't really think about what with the rain/storms and temperature change in the forecast was the post-frontal wind. It's howling out there. Gusts up to 45 MPH in the forecast here.