CheeselandSkies

38 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Masks are not going to protect you 100%, especially if you are in close contact with someone indoors for hours with poor ventilation. Even in that situation they can reduce viral load though,

Exactly. The greatest benefit is if both you and the infected person are masked. Second best is if the infected person is wearing a mask. If just you are wearing a mask (assuming it's not a N95) the benefit is considerably reduced but non-zero.

15 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Satellite makes it look like it's coming right back towards South Florida. Lol. It is east of the cone, but probably won't miss the track by that much.

It did appear to be moving east-northeast for a time, but now looks to be finally on a more northerly course.

I guess one aspect of today's weather I didn't really think about what with the rain/storms and temperature change in the forecast was the post-frontal wind. It's howling out there. Gusts up to 45 MPH in the forecast here.

Goes to show some of those "crazy" model runs were perhaps on to something...granted any one of them was not particularly likely to be accurate, but weird stalls, loop-de-loops, etc were definitely on the table.

8 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

 If it weren't for old people straining the medical system, this strain of Covid would already be 5th page news.

 

Tell that to my 35-year-old fiancee who had COVID in August and was hospitalized for 3 days (although not in the ICU, didn't need supplemental oxygen/ventilation). She seemed to be steadily on the mend for about 6 weeks then backslid significantly starting about mid-October. Every day it has been some combination of shortness of breath, fatigue/lethargy, headaches, stomach issues (basically all the symptoms she had when she actually had the infection itself, other than the cough) and skyrocketing blood pressure. I took her back to the hospital today to try to get it under control because the doctors are concerned it is causing kidney/eye damage and the medications she can take at home aren't working.

Solid overcast, periodic rain and quite chilly in Madison early this afternoon. Although we were kept in the slight risk/5% TOR zone for 1630, pretty clear nothing is going to happen around here unless the warm sector abruptly gets yanked over us, but I don't believe this was supposed to be that kind of setup.

47 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The globals are not buying any strengthening.

...which by and large has meant nada this season.

21 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The 12z HWRF and HMON are dropping Eta in the 970s again.  They've been going back and forth with the intensity.

Collapses and stalls just offshore FL. The models/runs that get stronger seem pretty intent on this kind of scenario. You'd think a solid hurricane on a NE track in November wouldn't just come to a screeching halt.

Blue box out, doesn't extend north of the WI/IL border though.

Been overcast with sprinkles all morning, honestly thought we'd be trimmed out of the slight risk at 1630.

14 minutes ago, WaryWarren said:

Tornado sirens just went off where I'm at. 

Which is where (no location given on your profile)? There are no tornado warnings currently in effect anywhere in the CONUS.

4 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

The general rule for when hurricane season ends is when a cold front gets all the way to Puerto Rico. 

The crazy thing is we've had just one cold front here in Southeast Florida, and temperatures did not even drop below 70 F. This is highly unusual. Sometimes we'd get our first real cold front in mid-late September, almost always we get the first real cold front in October, this year it's now mid-November and we haven't had a real cold front. Further, no cold fronts at all expected for over a week. 

In-fact, I don't recall this ever happening in my life before. By now we should have had a few cold fronts and winter/dry season should be solidly underway. 

LOL, some people on another forum were insisting the Gulf coast was now safe from hurricanes for the rest of the season because some cold fronts had come through back in late September or so. We saw how that worked out.

I think what galls me the most is even early on, when this pandemic was causing the equivalent of a Hurricane Katrina or 9/11 in this country every couple of days, some people just decided that it wasn't that big a deal, masks be damned.

47 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Let him who is without mistakes lead the posting.

We learn a whole lot more from the edge forecasts, as long as they are well articulated, not just plopped on the boards. If they fail miserably, we can learn what  was mistaken. By contrast, we don't learn much from a sort of OK forecast, even if it seems closer to what actually happened.

I mean, it's one thing to make a legitimate attempt to forecast and bust, it's another thing to repeatedly make blanket statements based on the fantasy range of the deterministic GFS runs.

Some of the good, the bad and the ugly regarding the Pfizer announcement:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/09/fine-print-on-preliminary-coronavirus-vaccine-results/

On 9/28/2020 at 11:59 AM, ldub23 said:

Looks  like we  have  indeed ended the season very  early.

Frame this and put it in the "Weather Forum Posts That Aged Horribly" Hall of Fame right alongside the one he made about September 2017 being quiet.

Speaking of ldub, he hasn't popped into this thread in awhile...

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

RIP Alex Trebek.  Loved watching Jeopardy over the years.

I'm almost 35 and he's been hosting the show longer than I've been alive.

2 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

So is this post tropical as the experts advised?

No...

Foremost experts are the NHC and they have it as a tropical storm to minimal hurricane for at least the next five days.

INIT  08/2100Z 23.9N  79.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 24.7N  81.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 24.6N  83.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 23.6N  84.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 24.0N  85.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 25.1N  85.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 25.8N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 27.1N  84.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 29.0N  82.8W   50 KT  60 MPH

58 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I would be cautious about the instability numbers at this point things still slant to climo and it won't take much to rapidly change this.

I would be delighted to be proven wrong, but I'm just not seeing anything to pique my interest 4 days out.

On 11/6/2020 at 4:37 PM, fluoronium said:

I'm astonished how nice the weather has been! A well needed slice of heaven in an otherwise terrible year. Haven't broken any daily records here yet but the duration of this warmth is impressive to say the least. That topped with bright sunshine is hard to beat.

The only thing that would make it better would be finishing off this warm spell with a nice fall severe setup.

Not happening. Instability will be too weak on Tuesday. 2013 this ain't.

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

A Missouri elections supervisor who knew they tested positive for the coronavirus and still worked at a polling site Election Day has died.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/missouri-poll-worker-positive-covid-19-still-worked-shift-died-n1246620

3 hours ago, madwx said:

record high temp in Madison today

Could do it tomorrow and over the weekend, too. 

Right now looking like no 11/10/02 or 11/17/13 or even those couple days in Nov. 2005. Instability expected to be lacking.

19 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Some good storm systems showing up on the models 

I've forgotten when was the last time I even looked at the models for anything other than tropical cyclones.

1 minute ago, raindancewx said:

Mitch killed 10,000 people in 1998 with 180 mph sustained winds at its peak if my memory is right. Similar path and time of year to this. Pretty sure the models didn't get the path right on Mitch - have to watch for that in the coming days. 

Mitch was down to a 1 by landfall, though. It was all rainfall-induced landslides.

1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The new recon is aborting just shy of the storm