CheeselandSkies

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I wear one all day at work and cannot stand it. It's a big deal to me, I hate them.

But the important thing is, you suck it up and do it because it's the right thing to do at this moment in history. I don't know anybody who's exactly enamored with them.

34 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

That’s really not the case... There is no significant forcing via teleconnection, until maybe we get into mid April.

Definitely could get into a stagnant pattern for a bit.


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Fair enough...again, better now than May!

More on the subject of NOAA's IT infrastructure issues:

https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-national-weather-service-s-digital-infrastructure-i-1846584558

28 minutes ago, CorePunch said:

Was at the bar earlier watching the Tigers. Struck up a conversation with a local about COVID. He is reluctant to get the vaccine. I asked him why and he said something the struck me. He basically said that why should he run out and get the vaccine if he is still required to wear a mask, can still infect others and be infected. I didn’t challenge him on his stance but urged him to be careful. The conversation then turned into a mutual rant about the crappy Detroit Lions. 

Anyhow, theres a lot of vaccine skepticism out there. I know more money is being spent on public health outreach, but its obvious that more can be done.  

 

 

As more data comes in, the evidence is leaning more toward that not being the case. The CDC was and is urging caution because not much was known about this aspect. I wouldn't be surprised to see that guidance change soon, especially if more evidence continues to come in supporting efficacy against the major variants of concern.

22 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Man if you're wanting an active severe wx pattern for April, GFS is not the outcome you want to see. Forms a massive omega block after the first week of April and persists well into mid April. Euro didn't look as blocky. Teleconnections support a more active pattern so hopefully GFS is out to lunch. 

Yeah, and like I said while an ugly look it's well out into fantasy range (and even if it does have the right idea, better April than May). Currently more focused on trying to suss out any potential with next week's system.

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It is in the low 30s here with a lot of sun.  Pretty impressive to get that combo in the afternoon on April 1.

Seemed to be happening until like April 20th in 2018.

GFS continues to suggest decent thunderstorm chances for portions of the sub at times next week with 60s dews getting into southern WI/possibly far SE MN in the warm sector of a deep low over central/northern MN. Soundings look kind of muddled for severe/ potential, but at this range I'd be worried if they looked perfect now.

06Z run had an ugly eastern US stalled upper low/ Omega block developing later in the run, but that was waaaaaaaaay into fantasy range and even if it does happen, better now than May (or June).

30 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Eh, they aged okay but definitely not great. Late May last year wasn't exactly blockbuster for tornadoes, but there were many chaseable days -- that's all I can really ask for. That Wednesday Andy referenced turned out to be a frustrating day in the TX panhandle/western OK (drove from E KS for what amounting to a bunch of nice looking turkey towers) but some folks got some good structure in southwestern Oklahoma later in the evening.

The problem for me is, being from Wisconsin and of somewhat limited means, I need higher-ceiling, multi-day setups to take time off work and drive 15-20 hours out to the Southern/Western Plains (not that it was happening last year anyway with COVID). May 20, 2019 was a perfect example, although it ended up sucking anyway (got on the Mangum cell well before it produced, but got caught up in the traffic jam and couldn't see the tornado, and nothing about that day was photogenic in the slightest what with the stupid wildfire haze).

5 hours ago, madwx said:

getting some flurries here with the passing convective showers today

Pass.

2 hours ago, jojo762 said:

Nebulous details of moisture quality, shortwave timing and orientation, as well as low/mid-level temps aside, it sure looks like we could see a legit threat of severe weather somewhere across the central/southern plains mid/late-next week as moisture begins to advect northward starting as early as Sunday and a trough develops out west.

Beyond that, things probably get fairly boring for a bit as NW/zonal flow becomes dominant across most of the country east of the Rockies.

Well, the above few posts from last year didn't exactly age well.

It's still early season, at this point I'm just happy we're not locking into an extended winter-like pattern as we roll into April.

00Z GFS hints at some stormy mischief possible in the Plains and/or this sub mid-late next week with a deep cyclone and a broad moist sector across the central and eastern CONUS. It's still early season and it's barely inside of 200 hours, so that's about all that can be said at this point.

5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Sat-Mon are the only locked mild/warm days. After that there is a lot of question.

That once wall to wall warm late March into mid-April idea is a distant memory.


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Hmmmm...not sure how I feel about that.

On the one hand, I want no part of a return to a wintry pattern after the equinox and especially after the calendar flips to April.

OTOH, an instant flip to a baking, summerlike ridge is no good either.

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I believe Pfizer is like 90%+ effective vs the Brazilian variant. The South African is the one that concerns me. 

The general consensus from what I've seen is that the SA variant may be able to evade vaccines moreso than the others at least in terms of infections/mild-moderate illness, but there's still a marked reduction in severe illness (hospitalizations/deaths).

1 hour ago, WeatherMonger said:

Wasn't even yawn worthy. Same old song and dance, storm skirts by, showers stabilize things, anything behind will weaken as it approaches.

 

I did hear some thunder though....

I-70 and south is getting it today.

4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Whats strange to me as the virus is mutating with the ability to spread quicker and deadlier, that is pretty rare with viruses as they usually mutate with the ability to spread quicker but less deadly. 

At least part of that may be due to them replicating so fast that critical cases are once again overrunning ICU capacity in some areas that haven't fully recovered from earlier wave(s).

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Does the Euro have a model similar to the HRRR? I’m guessing not, because it would outpace it similar to the way the regular Euro outpaces the inferior American models.

No, Euro is not a hi-res CAM.

It also had its own issues with drastically over-amping yesterday/today's system within 24 hours. See discussion here:

2 hours ago, DanLarsen34 said:

 

That was really the one thing no one thought was gonna happen yesterday. All the discussion was over whether insufficient capping would allow for a destructively interfering convective mess.

We still have much to learn, and much tweaking to do to the models.

6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Guidance did terribly with this storm system, which obviously had an affect on the severe t'storm risk for a large area...and will have an affect on the wind/rain aspects for many areas as well.

As others mentioned above, the Euro was particularly bad... The 0z run had a 981MB SLP in NW IN tonight, while the new 18z run has a 992mb SLP in NW OH.

Whatever happened to "The King"?

SVR lmao

Oddly quiescent for what should be peak tornado hours, once the second long-track monster dissipated. Just a few SVRs out across the South.

...too quiet.

Just now, OhioWX said:

Please stop.

Storms keep trying south of Jackson/west of I-59 but nothing has really taken root there so far. They had a lot of heating this morning though (relative to AL) and surface winds should back with time. Good chunk of eastern MS remains in the 15% hatched MDT risk.

1 minute ago, TexMexWx said:

@CheeselandSkies here's the Bassfield-type signature that didn't occur last week

Yep...

4 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Couplet SW of Cave Spring, GA is becoming quite intense. The supercell structure looks like slop but it's probably being scanned from pretty high

Almost in the same spot as where the next EF4 produced by the same supercell that spawned Tuscaloosa/Birmingham crossed into GA on 4/27/11, although it took a little different trajectory to get there. It also crossed AL-9 north of Piedmont very near Goshen UMC of Palm Sunday 1994 infamy.

1 minute ago, VOLtage said:

Those cells in Southern mississippi look like they have lots of potential

Maybe it's too soon to say they dodged another one despite the trimming of the HIGH. That one north of Tylertown looks like trouble down the road.

Of course, I said the same thing about the discrete cells popping in south-central MS last Wednesday and they just kind of died out.

Interesting how this storm started out well south of the 4/27/11 track through Greene/Tuscaloosa/Jefferson Counties but is now basically on top of it from Ohatchee up toward Cave Spring, GA.