CheeselandSkies

The subtitle of this thread did not age well...

2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

WTNT61 KNHC 061520
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 
INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 
HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is 
continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have 
increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.  This makes 
Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind 
Scale.


SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

https://youtu.be/XVPE7I0I7X4?t=13

2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Finally...a real hurricane. 

...but is it good enough for ldub? Or did he stop paying attention when he called season over?

1 hour ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Yeah that would make sense. I'm really interested in how this upcoming severe season will play out since 2010 & 2011 were bonkers with a well established (moderate to strong) La Nina. I read your post about the drought and its downstream affect on early season severe potential in the east. Good stuff.

2010 was decent across the board (May 10/19 in OK, May 22 in SD, several days in June along/east of the MS). 2011 was definitely very east-weighted not to mention bonkers in April. 2012 was drought city from the Rockies to the Appalachians and from the Rio Grande to the Red of the North; but still had two very high-end events early.

September may be considered the peak of hurricane season, but October really takes the cake for producing some beasts all around the world. From Tip to Hagibis, to Hurricane Patricia, to Mitch, Wilma, Michael and now Delta.

Yeah, no way this peaks as just at Cat. 2 unless shear comes in significantly higher than expected over the next 2-2 1/2 days.

3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Way too weak for any real eye to be present. Regarding landfall intensity I think that fairly rapid weakening right at the coast is likely due to cooler water and shear, it all depends on how strong it gets in the central Gulf. I noticed that the HWRF backed off of the intensity quite a bit with the 06Z run.

06Z hurricane models took a s*** just when it looked like all the stars were aligning for Delta to go nuts. We'll see if they got their systems flushed out properly at 12Z.

Took Wednesday-Friday off this week so I can have a 5-day stretch to enjoy the nice weather. When I put in for the days off the forecast was still in fantasy range; but it worked out nicely.

1 hour ago, Inverted_Trough said:

Probably not.  Pretty much all of the Trump rallies have been in defiance of local or state restrictions.  He doesn't care.  He was actually scheduled to have a rally in northeast Wisconsin on Saturday -- one of the biggest hotspots in the country right now.  Obviously that rally is cancelled now.

...along with one scheduled for Janesville today, which was to replace the one scheduled for La Crosse that local authorities had urged him not to hold.

92L?

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It is actually possible that the next 2 weeks will be more boring than the past couple.  Can't we get some tropical remnants or something?

At least it will be nice(r).

GFS-P and operational GFS both now have a significant storm in the 160-240 hour range. Ultimate track and landfall is still in fantasy range, but genesis really isn't at this point.

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The surface circulation is definitely taking jumps west closer to that vigorous mid level circulation per recon. LLC reformation appears to be underway. There is still shear and dry stable air but perhaps if Beta can form a core that will allow it to fight back. At any rate, this is a sign that Beta could have a period of intensification this afternoon.

Beta House giving it the ol' college try.

4 hours ago, hlcater said:

some mad girth on that one

That's what she said.

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What are the people who use male/female pronouns to refer to tropical systems going to do with the greek alphabet storms?  

I better not see Alpha referred to as he and Beta as she.  

At least one post on Storm2K already called Alpha (in reference to the Gulf TD) "she" since Wilfred is a male name.

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Daaaaang. That was quite the race...98 came from behind, lol

Probably won on a technicality since 22's recon had to bail.

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Wisconsin appears to be rising.  It looks like a real increase in spread too, not just more testing.

We can thank UW-Madison for that. But sure, let's play football.

51 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

That forum needs emoji reactions. I'm "SconnieCane" on there.

1 hour ago, andyhb said:

This, especially after severe season completely shit the bed this year following April.

Yes, like I said though, pass on repeating the accompanying floods in '08. Far outstripped all the tornadoes except Parkersburg for impacts.

There were some isolated reports early on of people with severe symptoms testing positive for both the flu and COVID-19. Could have been an issue with the early tests or they could genuinely have been infected with both viruses at the same time.

10 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

This season feels similar to 2004 in terms of impacts, however instead of tracking powerful, longtracking canes that usually made landfall past their peak, we've been tracking areas of vorticity and elongated waves that suddenly decide to get their act together within days of landfall 

Some people made comparisons to '05 early on, in terms of not only potential insane storm counts but also the potential of a western basin-based season without many if any strong hurricanes in the open Atlantic east of 50 degrees and south of 20. The intensifying-into-landfall them though was not there that season, although Wilma was at least holding its own on a secondary post-Yucatan peak after its initial, record-breaking one.

The only storm in those two apocalyptic seasons that RI'ed into landfall was Charley.

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now...if I may ask a rookie question...what exactly is ACE, and how is it measured? (I hear you guys mention ACE so much but I've never really understood it, lol)

Accumulated cyclone energy. It's calculated by how long a storm lasts and how intense it gets.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

5 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

2017? Harvey and Irma. 

...and Maria, if you count U.S. territories. Of course, then 2018 would also qualify with Michael and Typhoon Yutu striking the Northern Marianas.

That one behind Teddy raises my eyebrows a bit...it'll be an awfully low rider and Teddy has already reminded us you can't take early/pre-invest fishy runs for given even if there isn't a solid ridge across the Atlantic.

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Xiomara? Is that even a name?

Evidently you never saw "Jane the Virgin."