CheeselandSkies

4 hours ago, Windspeed said:

The Atlantic Basin has crossed 130 ACE for the season.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic

 

What is clearly phenomenal isn't necessarily the ACE the Atlantic has produced, which is below what I had expected, but the deadness of the WPAC.

Also that the WPAC, apparently out of spite, supposedly caused some of the Atlantic systems' struggles by Typhoon Maysak contributing to the formation of a TUTT in the Atlantic in September which reduced the intensity/longevity of some of the MDR systems.

Send it 75 miles north, please.

11 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

The best looking eye of the 2020 season is the 27th tropical cyclone on October 21 in the northern Atlantic.

Sounds about right.

One last hurrah for some rumblers tomorrow?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

'07-'08 was my last year attending UW-Green Bay with winter break trip home so I got to experience it in both northeast and south-central Wisconsin. As I recall your assessment is accurate.

I'd take the constant storminess over the extended arctic air and modest-to-moderate snowstorms. '13-'14 got to be brutal and my power bills were astronomical in my electric-heated apartment.

40 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Another thing is no 2 winters are ever identical. As it is October 2007 was very warm with a late peak color, in contrast to this cool October with its early peak color. 2007-08 was certainly not my favorite Winter, because it did not have the constant buried in snow of 2013-14 due to its Nina-esque thaws being common. But from a storm parade standpoint you can not ask for more. Fingers crossed!

I will take that, we were buried in snow most of DJF but there was that early-mid January thaw that also included a regional tornado outbreak.

7 minutes ago, Amped said:

The GFS blew chunks with both storms

Yeah. Given seasonal indicators/ENSO state and SSTs/OHC in the vicinity I thought GFS/GEFS were on point with a hurricane, potentially a Mitch/Wilma-like beast coming out of the Caribbean. Now...not so much.

As much as I'd love to see something like that, I don't buy it for a second.

18 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said:

That would be a nice board meltdown if it were to happen again. 

Some of the GFS tracks in recent days haven't been too far off from that.

It's not a "media claim." It's based on a 126 MPH measurement at Atkins and a 140 MPH estimate by DVN survey in Cedar Rapids. Granted those are gusts, but you don't really see sustained winds of that magnitude on land in any but perhaps the very strongest hurricanes (think Irma in the Leewards, Dorian in the Bahamas).

14 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Yep. The Midwest is the new West.

I'd rather we were the new Southern Plains in terms of tornado potential, but that doesn't seem to be happening (at least not on a reliable/predictable A/M/J basis).

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Pretty healthy La Nina with the warm version of the -PDO in September...I'd really like to see more of the North Pacific cool off with this event.

Yes...yes. It seems that is what needs to happen to get quality severe weather in the central CONUS again.

2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

The GFS 06z run was just posted above by Prospero.  Could be a Wilma part 2 exactly 15 years later to the day.  (Wilma struck Florida on October 24)

I have Prospero on Ignore due to his conspiracy-mongering.

Anyone else see the 06Z GEFS and GFS op?

(at work so can't post it, but suffice to say it was...eyebrow raising)

...is it S****?

On 10/5/2020 at 3:11 PM, Chicago Storm said:

Euro and CFS are not only an overall torch for the rest of Oct, but also for Nov as well.

 

What happened to that?

Michael was basically the unicorn of landfalls. In the CONUS, in daylight, with a perfectly formed stadium eyewall untouched by EWRC or dry air; yet it is barely talked about outside of those it impacted and those who chased it.

Because seeding doesn't work. They thought StormFury was working, then they figured out EWRCs and dry air intrusions were a thing.

4 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Laura didn't necessarily bust surgewise, but I think that Delta's surge could be significantly higher and over a pretty broad swath of the gulf if the HWRF is to be believed 

So LA gets the big wind and the big surge...just from different storms.

Yeah, this one has really underachieved in the satellite porn department especially considering the waters it has gone over.

2020 - 25? 26? tropical cyclones and maybe four quality eyes visible for 1-12 hours each?

54 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

 

 

Am I crazy or is this much more common than adjusting eastward?  Seems like almost every storm has a predicted turn to the north that gets postponed many times.

Unless it's on a due W track through the Bahamas heading for Miami.

1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Can't recall a high end cat 4 ever with no eye visible 

Joaquin, but this is not that.

Time to bring out Hurricane Milton again.

What is the deal with shear always being there when the models said it won't be (Delta today, Sally through most of its trek through the GOM prior to the 11th hour before Panhandle landfall) and not being there when it's supposed to be (Laura, Michael at landfall)?