CheeselandSkies

@Fred Gossage just made a great point on another forum, which is that on the 18Z HRRR, you can watch the "junk" updrafts die out with time as the supercells mature and are able to dominate the environment. It was not portraying this evolution leading up to last Wednesday.

Looks like some much-needed precip for lower Michigan and Ontario. That deepening bodes ominous signs for the South tomorrow.

Category upgrade driven by 30% hail area, tornado probs upped to 5%.

Enhanced risk coming for parts of east Texas.

55 minutes ago, Powerball said:

And it increasingly appears another high risk area may be issued by the SPC for parts of the same areas tomorrow that were hit last week.

It's not often you see 2 high risk days in a season, let alone virtually back-to-back in the same areas.

Was fairly common before 2015 or so. May 4-10, 2003 had four, so did May 22-30, 2004 and three between May 22 and June 5, 2008. In fact, 4-6 per year was the general expectation from the 1990s through the early 2010s (2010 had six including one in October, 2011 had five including back-to-back on April 26-27); except in real dud years like 2000 and 2009. Then dud years started becoming the rule rather than the exception.

Thursday's gonna be another one of those "respect the polygon" days...
 

18 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Leaving the store this evening the air had that smell of impending rain.

Not really impressed with the rain so far. Was expecting a good downpour at some point today. Haven't really had that (at no point have I been able to hear the rain coming down from inside).

3 hours ago, Bob's Burgers said:

Are we having fun yet? 

"WOOO-HOOOO! HEY YOU GUYS! WOOO-HOOOOO!"

2 hours ago, andyhb said:

Well, safe to say this could be a pretty big event. Convective evolution/mode concerns notwithstanding, there seems to be a consensus across all of guidance for hodographs supportive of long-lived supercells with long tracked tornadoes as early as 15-18z in LA/MS. The degree of low-level moisture is on the high side for this time of year, and I wonder if there may be some subsidence in the late morning following the passage of a potential lead shortwave that could help to suppress junk convection.

Any discrete storm in the warm sector that manages to root in that boundary layer by early afternoon is likely going to be a problem. Now it's a question of what wrinkles the mesoscale throws in (and whether the NAM comes around more to the potent solutions suggested by the globals, particularly the UK and Euro).

When the NAM has PDS TOR forecast soundings with jaw-dropping hodographs (and 5/4/2003 analogs) up the wazoo and it's one of the more subdued solutions...

Leaving the store this evening the air had that smell of impending rain.

1 hour ago, madwx said:

good news is the 18z flipped completely away from it, with highs staying in the 50s in the extended

Is anybody really surprised?

The LLJ problem is why I was skeptical of the high risk until the overnight models Tuesday into last Wednesday (when it seemed like less of an issue, at least according to the CAMs) and the 45% "let's tie the 4/27/11 probs over the exact same area" always seemed like an odd choice to me.

3 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Because why not go from the mid-70's back into a mid-20's pattern...

Good thing is it's the fantasy range GFS, and it kinda flies in the face of the nationwide torchy pattern being predicted by the climate models for April, right?

34 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Haha me too.  That day will haunt me forever.  We had chased the first main cell of the day from west of Ottumwa all the way up towards Clinton but missed the tors it finally produced there.  Said screw it and gave up and went to Applebees in Moline lol.  Later on into the meal started hearing about the tornado out by Ashton that went on to hit Fairdale.  That sup passed only about 20 miles east of home, could have just sat home all day and lolly gagged out there late in the afternoon and followed it from there.  

 

I sat in Forreston (near top center of the map) for awhile that afternoon, then felt like the atmosphere was taking too long to recover from the pre-warm frontal clouds and showers, plus generally low expectations for an early April setup that far north (3/15/16 and 2/28/17 had yet to occur, lol); turned around and went home, arriving just in time to pull up GR Level 3 and watch the debris ball track ~20 some miles from where I'd just been. If I'd stuck it out for just another 20-30 minutes I probably would have clued in on the rapid changes taking place in the lower atmosphere (or if I'd had access to mobile data on the road, which I wouldn't until I jumped on the smartphone bandwagon in 2017).

What is it with May and June being dead in this region after 2016 (apart from 2019, which while the results weren't spectacular there were at least opportunities); with our regional chase "season" consisting of one day way closer to the cold season than seems right (2/28/17 and 12/1/18 being particularly egregious, also 3/28/20 which busted anyway compared to its ceiling) and one random day in the mid-late summer (7/19/18, 8/10/20)?

9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

I would imagine they'll bump up to marginal on later outlooks.  It definitely deserves it with pockets of surface cape AOA 500J/kg present ahead of the front in a high shear environment.  Mid-level lapse rates look kinda crappy, barely 7 C/km so it'll be hard getting cape much above that.  Models have been pretty insistent on temps/dews having a hard time cracking 60/mid 50s.  All in all a low-end threat but looks to be enough for a few tors, and worthy of at least a 2% tor risk.   

Maybe worth it if you're (very) local, not so much if you have a 3-4 hour drive to and from the target area and work at 3 AM the next day (like me). I really need more clear-cut setups unless they're literally right in MBY, and those have been in short supply in this region these last several years.

Of course, the atmosphere tried to gift me Rochelle day in 2015 and I managed to screw that up, too.

5 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

   
..MIDDLE MS VALLEY  
  
SURFACE HEATING WILL REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS  
NORTHERN MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL AND EASTERN IA. HOWEVER, STEEPENING  
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG  
MUCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT  
COULD AID IN A FEW ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED CELLS NEAR THE SURFACE  
LOW/TRIPLE POINT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY  
REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN LIMITED HEATING. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY  
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO  
LOW/CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE PROBABILITIES.  

Yeah, this does not sound anywhere near a 12/1/18 potential. That was a sneaky day but I don't think THIS sneaky...the area of interest was at least in a marginal risk for the Day 2.

Day 2 marginal introduced...for the far southern MS valley, lol.

3 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Models are consolidated quite a bit today. Ensemble spread is lower. Operational models zig zag less run to run. Looks like a robust warm sector with strong wind fields. Mesoscale details still TBD. Expect a Day 4 outlook Monday morning - valid for Thursday. 

SPC has been surprisingly bearish to this point, but if I recall correctly a few days ago the models were showing the warm sector barely making it onshore the Gulf Coast?

8 hours ago, madwx said:

good news is that most signals are for April temps to be above average regionwide, especially the first half of the month.  Still can't rule out cool shots but looking better than the past few Aprils

Problem is it's a "giant ridge pushing the jet stream up to Nunavut" AA signal rather than from being in the warm sectors of SLPs with thunder and .

5 hours ago, frostfern said:

This is the most weenie-unfavorable pattern ever.  Tired of the constant chilly east wind and northern fringe clouds.  I like rain and I like full sun.  Hate this stuck-in-between crap.

Fortunately it looks to break for the weekend, at least here in southern Wisconsin.

10 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

I wonder if they experience higher than normal rates for home insurance. Seems like they are always under the gun.

Just like Tuscaloosa south of about University Blvd. to the western/northern suburbs of Birmingham, or the Moore/Norman/Newcastle area of central Oklahoma.

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

Stupid question, but about how long would you guys say it'll be until it's really starting to turn green outside? Three more weeks? Four?

I was noticing on the live shots and skycams how green it already is getting in Alabama. Jelly.

1 minute ago, Macintosh said:

Tons of convection and rain all over Alabama at present.  Hard to believe there could be this much activity now and still have a risk for later tonight.  Would think the atmosphere is getting worked over pretty well at this point, but not seeing any indication of that.

The next round is firing up now over western MS. They have a lot of energy yet to work with.

6 minutes ago, MoistWx said:

According to the WMO, the names Dorian, Laura, Eta and Iota from the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season have been retired. The Greek alphabet will no longer be used for future hurricane seasons, and a supplemental name list will be used in its place. Interesting.

 

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-hurricane-committee-retires-tropical-cyclone-names-and-ends-use-of-greek

Dorian was from '19.

That first trough he posted looks kinda sexy. Nice negative tilt with the left exit region nosing into west-central IL (kinda similar to 3/15/16 in that regard, actually).