CheeselandSkies

Coastal bomb in summer...why not, 2020?

4 hours ago, madwx said:

yeah the airport might not get the super high amounts but the west side of town already has 2.5" plus

Nearly hydroplaned on Mineral Point eastbound just off the Beltline on my way home.

First peeks of sun all day as the backside of the line clears.

Have fun, IL folks.

Never made it above the mid-70s today. Line coming in from the northwest, not expecting it to intensify much more than it already has.

MD out, says "tornado threat will be maximized in southern WI/northern IL."

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1006.html

Gonna need to see some sun to be convinced...

Just now, madwx said:

these are elevated WAA showers so they aren't generating a cold pool.  Surface warming already occurring in SW Wisconsin

Is it me or is MKX radar down now for the last 20-ish minutes?

Not liking all these showers in the late morning.

Oh man, how did I blank on Dorian?

7 hours ago, frostfern said:

It became a big MCV / QLCS while crossing Lake Michigan.  Wisconsin always gets the peak severe, but sometimes the late night leftovers here in Michigan are still good.  Most times the Wisconsin evening MCS just dies completely, then afternoon stuff pops way to the east the next day.  Annoying aspect of summer climatology here.  The severe stuff often survives through west Michigan though.  It's just when there aren't severe setups with good shear and/or low-level-jet the lake shadow dominates.

That's what we say about Iowa and Illinois. Except never chase in Iowa because then the tornadoes will be in Illinois, and vice versa.

8 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

You mean you're not team "Name Every Convective Swirl"?  

Among other things, it makes it darn near impossible to retire any name earlier than "F." Even in 1992, Andrew probably wouldn't have been Andrew if names were burned through like they are now.

1 hour ago, madwx said:

some fiesty storms just passed through here.  A pleasant surprise and am hoping for a repeat tomorrow

Got to drive through it on the way home from Portage. Saw a few intracloud bolts.

50 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I am a little surprised that they upgraded to moderate risk today (wind, hail only)

The discussion sounded almost like they expect an event similar to that one in August, 1994 that Gary England wrote about in his book (especially the line about "wind-driven hail"). Same general area, too of western KS/OK border region.

Wisconsin's % positive rate has been holding between 2-4% for some time now. I don't know how we've gotten lucky so far, what with the April primary fiasco and then the doors being thrown open by the Supreme Court in mid-May. Our mask-wearing compliance seems to be no better or worse (in other words, not great) than other parts of the region.

Thankfully my workplace has now mandated masks, although not everyone fully complies at all times (I see some people where theirs spends half the day down around their chin) at least they are when we have to be in close proximity for extended periods of time.

LOL, we were removed from yesterday's Day 3 Marginal risk (for Monday) on the first Day 2, then added back to it on the update. Guess we'll have to keep an eye out for more shenanigans.

Wisconsin, the land of cheese and random tornado warnings on marginal risk days.

10 hours ago, madwx said:

Man the pattern over N. America has been so amplified for the past month and a half.

Not amplified in the right places though if you like spring for storms.

Raining harder now than it ever did during "Cristobal" yesterday.

Maybe Cristobal has a little more up his sleeve than I thought. Wind Advisory now hoisted for MKX's eastern counties (not including Dane, but does include Rock). 999.1 MB at KMSN as of 3 PM. Don't see a whole lot of sub-1000 readings.

For as meteorologically unusual an event as this is (apparently the last time the center of a remnant TC circulation crossed into WI was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, and that only clipped the SE corner), it appears the impacts won't be all that memorable. We're not under any wind headlines, not even an advisory. Just looks like a run-of-the-mill inclement weather day.

Gorgeous morning here so far.

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

The bullish Euro has backed off on the winds, and is falling more in line with the rest of the pack.


Looking more likely we end up with a usual 40-55mph wind event, locally higher.

There does appear to be some tor threat, but greatest will be much further S and SE.


.

Naturally.

What has happened to "King" Euro? Time was, if it was the one showing an impact event you sat up and took notice. And if the GFS was popping PDS TOR soundings everywhere you said  "Meh, I'll wait and see what the Euro says."

Yeah, after flirting with it in 2006, '09 and (IMO) 2018, I think 1988 has officially been dethroned as the worst season in the history of the practice (I was 2 at the time so I don't remember it personally). Ironically, our chief meteorologist said today that year was also the last time the center of a remnant tropical cyclone tracked into Wisconsin (Hurricane Gilbert, although that was at a more seasonable time of year for such an event-September).

I was hoping for some good storms to take my mind off the COVID pandemic, but instead I think the pandemic and more recently the Floyd fallout have taken my mind off the lack of storms.

Looks like the good wind whiffs south-central WI to the east. Gets into the eastern part of MKX's CWA though, and they are still pretty mum about the possibility.

MKX not really buying into that yet. My point forecast for Tuesday night says "winds could gust as high as 30 MPH." Wednesday is "A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75."

I can't help but wonder if without Cristobal in the picture we'd be getting a more predictable/high-ceiling early June regional severe weather event with that shortwave.