CheeselandSkies

4 hours ago, Chicago916 said:

Wednesday/Thursday clipper uptrend. Or do we not care cuz it's not a big dog?

1 hour ago, Geoboy645 said:

Meanwhile here around Madison, we just had one of most localized snowfall events we have had in a while. The original forecast for Friday into Saturday was 1-2" Friday morning and then another Friday night. Instead we had a localized Fgen(?) band setup Friday night over the I-94 corridor and just sit for about 18 hours. With some occasionally heavy rates of 1-1.5" of an hour, Madison ended up recording 5" of snow on 1/16 and 5.6 on 1/17, although the snow depth doesn't quite represent that because of settling.. This was a very dry and fluffy snow too, so we could have localized ground blizzard like conditions tomorrow with the cold blast. Thing is, this band was not much wider than Dane County. I have some snow up here, but like 3-4" not 6+. And if you go N to Portage or S to Janesville they may have like 2-3 OTG. This honestly feels like a summer MCS that forms and doesn't move and dumps 5-6" of rain in a night, but just snow instead.

Yeah. I work in local news and based on our mets' forecasts I was not expecting it to snow at all yesterday beyond the early morning.

On 1/16/2026 at 9:30 PM, Baum said:

NWS Pants down again:

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LODI, SAUK CITY, WAUKESHA, PORTAGE,   GRAFTON, MADISON, CEDARBURG, MILWAUKEE, MENOMONEE FALLS,   DODGEVILLE, WATERTOWN, PRAIRIE DU SAC, MUSKEGO, MAYVILLE, BEAVER   DAM, JEFFERSON, WEST BEND, HARTFORD, LAKE WISCONSIN, MINERAL   POINT, BARABOO, WAUPUN, MEQUON, REEDSBURG, BARNEVELD, FORT   ATKINSON, BROOKFIELD, GERMANTOWN, NEW BERLIN, AND COLUMBUS   809 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026       ..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY     * WHAT...SNOW. 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL SNOW   ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH TOTALS APPROACHING 3 TO 5   INCHES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.     * WHERE...PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.     * WHEN...UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY.    

On top of that, it snowed most of the rest of the day yesterday (which was NOT forecast). We actually set a daily record due to the ridiculous ratios.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1ZDN338aPL/

2 hours ago, DocATL said:

The Wisconsin-Illinois state line is a naturally occurring snow boundary. It’s wild.

Just like it is in the opposite direction for warm fronts/tornadic supercells, with very rare exceptions.

5 hours ago, Rjay said:

 

I should just go back to using the NCAR model site that was the first one I ever came across, still looks like it did in 2006 and the GFS only goes out to 192 hours.

3 hours ago, andyhb said:

Ok but seriously, what in the actual hell happened with that run?

Looks like most of it comes from a wound up storm system that tracks from AR to the NC/SC border from FH246-270.

Verbatim would support some severe weather in LA/MS on the 23rd, too.

4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Had a few breaks in the cloud cover a short while ago which revealed just how much shear there is in the lower atmosphere.  Looked very ominous as the dark low clouds were ripping northwestward beneath fast northeastward moving mid-level cloud cover.  Sky looked pretty tornadic.  Probably not too far off from having a little tor setup.

Picked up 0.34" today.

On nearly every chase day I've had where I've seen tornadoes, or was within striking distance of tornadoes but missed them due to being dumb, I've seen that sky when approaching/arriving in the target area.

9 minutes ago, roardog said:

Not too many posters have probably been paying attention to this storm but there has been a huge NW/stronger trend with this over the last few days. It doesn't mean much to most here but to see systems becoming stronger as they get closer in time instead of weaker like we've seen the last 10 years is different.

Unfortunate waste of potential in both the  and departments. Could have done something significant with a little more antecedent cold air to pull in on the back side and different timing/better lapse rates in the warm sector.

12 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Spotted on the ground today, seems odd?

 

Yeah, those should definitely be in winter hibernation.

Founding queen of Vespula germanica (German yellowjacket).

I have Friday off. Why couldn't this system be about 6-7 hours slower?

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Oh, *bleep*. Hard pass on that look for me.

15 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

This winter reminds me a lot of 22-23 just shifted 2 weeks earlier. Early cold and snowy period followed by a long period of storminess on the W Coast and warmth here in January. Hopefully this means we get a 22-23 like rally in February and it gets done by March 15th this time around. Madison and Green Bay recorded around 50 inches of snow in the Feb 15th to April 1st rally in 22-23. Something like that but a bit more spread the wealth and earlier would be nice to say the least.

Hey, by the last day of March 2023 I was shooting in Iowa so I'll take it.

Bunch of people rushed out and bought snowblowers for the end of November storm; now won't use them again for 5 years.

Here's the thing though. May not be true for other parts of the sub, but here in Wisconsin we can be solidly AA in Jan/Feb and it's still cold enough to snow.

I'm firmly part of the camp who can do without the extended periods of barely cracking 10°F.

From wind chills in the -20s today and tomorrow to...that.

The phrase "averages are merely a mean of extremes" comes to mind.

Between the first and second halves, this month will likely show up as close to "normal" temperature-wise around these parts when all is said and done, but it will say absolutely nothing about the conditions actually experienced on any given day.

22 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Chasing tornadoes on Christmas would be a nice gift.

4 years ago OTD...

Cassville, WI live camera:
 

Been steadily snowing all morning in Madison but rates and flake sizes have been fairly run-of-the-mill. Hoping one of those heaver bands can make its way up here.

18Z 3K NAM backed off a bit from its prior few runs, down to a "mere" 8.2" for Madison by 18Z (noon CST) Sunday. Even that would be exceptional for before December 1st. However the 15Z RAP was all in on a top-end big dog with 15.5" at the same forecast hour.

I think you have to go all the way back to 2009 for the last true big dog (double digit totals) prior to December 10th in my memory. That one surely had some compaction involved, because it was low-ratio library paste, yet still flirted with or exceeded a foot in most parts of southern Wisconsin.

Looks like Madison is actually riding the north edge of the double digit totals. NAM has gradually come down a bit, from 12.8" to about 10.8" However points in far southern Wisconsin such as Janesville still get in on 12-13."

On 11/27/2024 at 8:37 AM, LakeEffectOH said:

Is anyone here on the Bluesky App?

I am.  http://@dohubb.bsky.social

Didn't see this thread until almost a year later, but I gave you a follow.

Mainly I'm annoyed that because of the way the trough has evolved vs. the GFS and Euro from 3 days ago, there's no outbreak threat anywhere, not even the Lower MS Valley/Dixie, to armchair chase while getting snowed in.

Some of the runs were showing upper-50s dews with solid vertical depth getting pulled as far north as northern KS on Sunday or Monday, in the presence of classic meathook hodographs.

47 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

I've noticed as of today the models have it amplifying more in the central CONUS rather than the western. This puts a kibosh on potential but it still brings the snow this weekend, at least for me and points north. 

12Z GFS rolling...