CheeselandSkies

Our @hlcater got some of the better footage I've seen of the tornado of the day (at least duration/impact-wise) which tracked from Houghton-Mediapolis, IA. Me, I was on the storm minutes beforehand but didn't think it looked about to produce and jumped on the southern storm, which was also tornado-warned at the time, and chased it across the river to near Little York, IL but it never did much of interest.

Wall cloud looking west on 140th St., south of Houghton or near Mt. Hamill:

Pretty sharp dry slot pushing into SW IA/NW MO. Not a lot of lingering cirrus behind the first round. HRRR back on board with firing a second round after dropping it for a run here or there (notably the 0Z yesterday evening).

1 minute ago, mnchaserguy said:

I wouldn’t call it a cap bust. Early precip is screwing up the heating and probably leading to some subsidence as well. Temps don’t rebound out of the 60s behind that initial band.


.

True.

And of course, 0Z HRRR now cap busts SE IA despite a pretty sexy parameter space.

I don't necessarily buy it given how much forcing ought to be present, but not exactly what I was hoping to see.

17 minutes ago, andyhb said:

18z Euro was very impressive for tomorrow and probably worthy of a MDT risk. Gives ample time to destabilize with 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH becoming common along a 50 kt LLJ over SE IA, NE MO, and far W IL by 21z. Signal is for a discrete/semi-discrete band of cells along the arcing Pacific front/dryline with better lapse rates thanks to CAA aloft closer to the primary upper low.

There are a number of larger synoptic N MO/IA events that looks like this one at 500 mb (5/27/1995, 4/8/1999, 3/31/2023, 4/11/2001 amongst them), and the dryslot in the mid levels as 700-500 mb, which is absolutely paramount for these types of events, looks pretty potent. I also noticed that most of the CAMs, despite different evolutions, ended up with robust cells with strong UH across some portion of the region, both at 12z and 18z.

Yeah, picture is becoming *a bit* clearer. Pretty much all 18Z CAMs agree on robust supercell development in a solid parameter space, most in the far SE IA vicinity (3KM NAM a little further west). Looks like it's going to be another drive to Mt. Pleasant, IA and evaluate kind of day, need to be more decisive than I was on 4/4/23.

Getting my cameras charged...

Tomorrow certainly going to be very interesting...ought to be at least a couple strongsomewhere near the IA/IL/MO intersection. As to exactly where in that vicinity at this point...

Picking a target on 3/31 last year was easy (except the morning of when the HRRR started to make western IL look really good; but fortunately I came to my senses). This is giving me unpleasant vibes of 4/4 when I sat in Mt. Pleasant just long enough to miss both the Pleasantville and Table Grove/Lewistown storms. Ended up going for the latter but was stuck on the wrong side as it coalesced and went tornado-warned, so I just threw in the towel and started driving for home. A chaser I've been acquainted with for a long time and long held in high regard was in a similar situation (probably only about 10-15 minutes ahead of me out of Mt. Pleasant), tried to core-punch to get a view, and ended up having a very bad time of it so I'm glad I didn't do that.

On 4/14/2024 at 7:51 AM, nvck said:

LOL at all the weenies on Twitter disappointed that tomorrow is downtrending for OK

Hey, I kind of am. I grew up on '90s TWC tornado docs with tons of footage from 4/26/91 since it was THE recent major outbreak of record at the time (as well as one of the first, along with 3/13/90, to take place in the camcorder era with a lot of home tornado video, although still nothing like now when everyone's phone can record 1080p or 4K video). I like to armchair chase a good Plains outbreak if I'm not able to chase it myself. I stay the **** off social media, though. It's long been a wretched hive of scum and villainy and it's only getting worse.

4/26/91 was also considered a major coup for the comparatively primitive NWP of the time; but I now believe it could just as easily have gone the way this one has. It was just "luck" from a forecasting standpoint that a lot of meteorologists called for a major outbreak based on what they saw several days in advance, and it verified.

The forecast surface pattern for Tuesday afternoon/evening looks pretty darn near ideal for a significant mid-to-upper MS Valley severe weather outbreak (much as it was on 3/31 last year) and I'm seeing many NAM forecast soundings with large 3CAPE values and strong low-level shear; however there are some caveats.

 - Most of those NAM soundings also have very wonky wind profiles above 700mb, with sharp backing to due southerly at 500mb followed by veering again but weakening at 300mb.

- 18Z GFS wipes out instability across IA/IL with a huge amount of ongoing convection throughout the day. This is likely overdone; but still a legitimate potential fly in the ointment.

7 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

What exactly do these people (SPC, Storm Chasers, Social Media crazies) keep seeing to make them get so bullish on severe risks the last few weeks? 

Literally, twitter had people talking about 1974 outbreak for Ohio last week, now they're talking about May 3, 1999 for the Great Plains/Oklahoma next week. I'm assuming those are rare events. Why is everyone so crazy bullish? 

After these events underperform, what exactly is not occurring that these people keep expecting to happen? Is it not enough instability? Is it not high enough dew points?
 

IMO, the hype for 4/2 was the stupidest thing I've ever seen in the era of social media weather "forecasting." There was nowhere near the model consistency or agreement on a high-end tornado outbreak; and the trough geometry was totally different than either of the two Super Outbreaks and most of the other known top-tier violent outbreaks.

SPC may have inadvertently fueled it by outlining the 15% hatched -driven moderate risk. There are some forecasters there who seem to tailor their outlooks to the "worst-case scenario" rather than the most likely. I disagree with this, but if they feel that's the best way to fulfill their mission to protect lives and property, that's fine.

Quote

A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an
   accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail.  

From the 13Z outlook. Doesn't sound like the kind of wording that should accompany an Enhanced/10% contour.

Decent rain here going to work on those snow piles; should see an explosion of greenery within a few days.

Eclipse forecast seems to have improved for my area. Now looking at "mostly sunny" according to MKX.

I mean, it only goes 24 hours out so you wouldn't have the 10 days of hype.

I will say, the simulated reflectivity for the late evening Alabama supercells (that produced Guin, Tanner 1+2, Jasper and Redstone Arsenal) looks somewhat less impressive than I would have expected. Around 02Z-03Z when those storms would have been peaking, it just looks like strung out line segments in the northwest corner of the state, not monster supercells producing some of the most violent tornadoes of what stood as the most prolific tornado outbreak on record for 37 years.

Shows how the 500mb setup for this outbreak was completely different than the one for Tuesday of this week and why the Super Outbreak comparisons to that were silly. To really get those high-end outbreaks you need to see those very wide E-W, neutral to moderately negatively tilted troughs with a broad area of SW-WSW (not SSW) 500mb flow in the exit region spreading out into the warm sector.

Was bored so threw this together using my storm footage across the years over the music video to Van Halen's "Humans Being" from the Twister soundtrack.
 

29 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Today locally is like what every day was in April 2018. Glad we don't have a cold pattern locking in.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

God that April sucked. And coming just 4 years after 2014 which similarly had a much BA pattern locked in for the first 6-8 weeks or so of "spring," I was really afraid that was the new normal.

Neither of our major national news partners at work (NBC News, and CNN) have ANY affiliate content available for the 50th anniversary of the Super Outbreak. Zilch. Nada.

Another sad reminder that there are severe weather geeks, and then there's everybody else.

57 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

about time for the severe and summer posters to carry the subforum until the flakes return next halloween

Happy to do it, just need something to talk about that doesn't mostly go belly-up on the day (fortunately for the OH/IN/KY area, though).

In the meantime, feel free to rewatch my Keota video.

3:08 - 3:38 - 30 seconds is what it took to go from a little tendril of condensation curling around the top of the funnel, to that massive collar cloud that would crown the wedge stage.

Yeah, some of that hype was just stupid. I'm glad I'm not on Twattle-X or the Reeking Muskverse or whatever it is.

To be fair to SPC, they have a pretty unenviable task conveying the type of threat that exists on a day like today. Today certainly could have produced a lot more than it did if a few ingredients had lined up better; but the chances of them lining up were pretty slim, if non-zero.

Contrast that to a day like March 31 of last year, which had some of the best model agreement I've ever seen in all the years I've been following weather (I wasn't looking at models much in advance of April 27, 2011, and anyway would have known a lot less about what I was looking at). Globals, mesoscale, CAMs all screamed a significant event, differing only in relatively small details of placement and ceiling.

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I literally saw "pray for Columbus" and "Central Ohio needs underground shelters ready" type stuff. It even scared me a little and I live near Cleveland/Akron!

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Do you think there was any particular reason why weather twitter went so crazy hype with this event? What made this one so insanely hyped? Was it the 50th anniversary of Xenia? Was it that these kids have gone so long without chasing they were wishing? 

Probably a little of both. The comparisons to 1974 and other ultra high-end outbreaks were ridiculous. This had nothing in common with those other than the general area at risk. Vastly different mid-upper level setup than that which has historically produced the top-tier outbreaks.

Yeah, even on another weather forum I suggested that some people throttle back the hype train a couple days ago, mainly due to the consistently progged steep positive tilt of the main trough and had them jump down my throat because "p0siTivELy tilteD TROughS can STIlL pr0duCe MajoR TOrNaDO events."

Well, yeah...BUT it is a lot less likely than with neutral to negatively tilted troughs. I can't confidently say that the mitigating factors we saw with today (and yesterday's) events were direct results of the positively tilted trough, but some (such as boundary-parallel flow promoting junk convection, and the best forcing and cold air aloft lagging behind the warm sector), seem to be common to them.

1 hour ago, madwx said:

Still rain here for now. Hoping it stays rain as long as possible to cut down on accumulation 

At least there should be an explosion of green when the weekend/early next week warmup finally hits.

12 hours ago, OHweather said:

Broyles has gotten better over the years and usually the SPC is pretty good about not whipping around the outlooks too much, but I don’t think anyone was very happy with the initial Day 2 outlook this morning to say the least 

Broyles on today's 4-8:

Quote

There is still considerable
   uncertainty on Saturday, mainly due to the lack of low-level
   moisture and instability. 

SO WHY DID YOU INTRODUCE AN AREA????!

48 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Outbreak potential with intense/long-tracked tornadoes mentioned in that outlook.

Well that was a change-up.