Jump to content

CheeselandSkies

Members
  • Posts

    3,247
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. GFS has been somewhat interesting for Friday afternoon/evening around northern IL, although it generates so much precip its hard to get a good handle on what the warm sector might actually look like.

    Near IL/WI stateline, more hodograph curvature, less instability:

    gfs_2025070800_093_area_42.18-42_72.-89.51--88_98.thumb.png.8edacef852c9597c7878a691c625bed7.png

    Further southeast, near SW burbs. Nice fat CAPE and plenty of 0-3KM CAPE:

    gfs_2025070800_093_area_40.79-41_49.-88.51--88_15.thumb.png.0987de2008f2a121f0202b111ac05bdf.png

    Those hodographs coupled with the high PWATs suggest HP modes to me, however especially on the second one it looks like the SR inflow might be small enough you can get smaller cells that aren't as rainy as you'd otherwise expect. We've pulled that off around here before on days like 8/9/21.

    • Like 2
  2. 9 hours ago, frostfern said:

    Ratio of “thunderstorm chances” in the forecast to anything of note actually happening has been abysmal for a long time now here.

    Desperately need a Wisconsin MCS charging across the lake.  Any time now.  This afternoon popup garbage avoids GRR every single time.  Trash climatology getting worse.

    First *we'd* need to actually have an MCS over here. Although at least we have been doing pretty decent with the popups around Madison.

  3. Ten years ago OTD. Coal City/Braidwood, IL EF3 along with another EF3 in southeastern Iowa and several EF2s including the one that impacted the Woodhaven Lakes campground near Sublette (hit again, also EF2, during the outbreak of 3/31/23). I would have been able to see that one and the following EF1 in Mendota had they not been completely rain-wrapped.

    00053_MTS.Still006.thumb.jpg.ea279aad98a4c4218f4456b6e3084782.jpg

    062215_Storm01-2048.thumb.jpg.056c7e090c8eca1e4a0c4075e1c62afd.jpg
     

     

    • Like 2
  4. I'm actually looking more at Tuesday evening. 00Z NAM moves an organized convective system through a strongly unstable environment in E IA/S WI/N IL Tuesday afternoon with what looks like some potential for supercells along the southern flank of it. These setups are always finicky with timing/placement of subtle shortwaves and associated MCS's which are crucial to determining the existence/placement of any chase-worthy :twister:threat. Often can't pin them down until the evening before at the earliest.

    • Like 2
  5. Ugh. Not a fan of this type of warning.

    "Possible large and extremely dangerous..."

    "Radar indicated rotation"

    It's either radar (TDS) or spotter confirmed as being "large and extremely dangerous," or you don't use the PDS designation.
     

    • Like 3
  6. 1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

    Very smoky rain this morning. AQI over 200, visibility under 3 miles. The smell of burnt boreal forest in the air. 

    I'm curious, at what level are the winds bringing the smoke in? According to the models we should be in southwest flow at 500 with this thunderstorm setup ahead of the incoming cold front.

  7. Pleasant, but by my standards too cool and quiescent Memorial Day weekend and most of the remainder of May on tap.

    If I hadn't gone to get the Arnett :twister:last weekend it'd be yet another of those springs where I'd be going stir-crazy.

    • Like 2
  8. I didn't realize until seeing the DAT that the nocturnal KS beast was actively producing an EF3 while I was on it north of US 54/400 between Cullison and Pratt shortly before 11 PM Sunday. The inflow was howling but the reflectivity signature looked messy from the merger and the velocity, while there was definite rotation, wasn't clear-cut "intense tornado in progress" like it had been back west of Haviland and again from Iuka to Plevna.

    After I got sick of the pitch black dirt roads (which didn't take very long) and got back on 54/400 eastbound toward Pratt, the lightning didn't illuminate under the base much during the time I was recording. This is the best frame I found that gives some hint as to what was going on, toward the bottom center:

    GX010545.MP4.23_01_49_17.Still001.thumb.jpg.7262b7a453912994b851cf90edc24f2e.jpg

    • Like 1
  9. Booked PTO to chase this Sunday-Monday back on May 9th. Managed to get there in time for the beauty near Arnett (@andyhb was on it as well). Then, hours after I thought the day was done, tried tangling with the Haviland-Plevna nocturnal beast when it was cycling northwest of Pratt. Quickly thought better of that and booked a room in Pratt for the night just as it was ramping back up.
     

     

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    • clap 1
  10. 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


    Yep. That’s a game changer right there.

    Large hail/wind threat looks tops today. Tor threat is still pretty low, as spreads are too high around here. This isn’t Colorado…. 92/65 isn’t gonna cut it. But, now that I said that…

    If temperatures are held down a few degrees from the HRRR soundings (which the current clouds over southern Wisconsin might help with) we could be in business. However 12Z CAMs trended to a messier mode around here. Only the RRFS still maintains more spaced out cells.

×
×
  • Create New...