CheeselandSkies

2 hours ago, DaveNay said:

I'm as ready as I'll ever be.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk
 

Is that a 2-stage (has a blower inside the chute in addition to the auger)?

Whoops, GFS wasn't done deepening:

Save worthy:

I joined this board in 2017 and I think this is the first winter where the mantra of "January will be rockin'" might actually come to fruition, at least starting in the first half of the month.

2 MB from Janesville to Madison, that is quite a gradient. Winds will be cranking with this one.

16 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Wait...What happened to only interested in big dogs?....Hmmm?  

Because it is a big dog.

...at least, it should be for someone. As to who at this point is anyone's guess.

Euro is high end across a wide swath of the region with the multiple systems through Saturday 1/13.

Would be ironic if this northwest-trended all the way to a Twin Cities/northern WI event. NAM definitely giving some pause in that regard.

21 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Well we haven’t had to be real concerned about the “NW trend” for the past 5+ years, but it appears that it may be a thing again this pattern/winter 

As things stand now in the ashes of those insane runs on Friday, the later week/following weekend system could use some northwest trend (from my standpoint), so

18Z NAM still doing that thing where it weirdly sends the surface low way further north.

You'd think, with the triple point going across the IA/IL/WI border region, it would be setting the stage for a midwinter Midwest outbreak; but the moisture still stays confined to the immediate Gulf coastal region.

Would love that track if it was April or May (heck, even March, that's gotten it done plenty of times in this region in recent years).

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

There has been a significant shift/expansion nw on the GEFS mean... Cedar Rapids has gone from 3" a day ago to now 8".  Concurrently, the Chicagoland lakeshore has been cut back quite a bit.

Ironic. Just yesterday our chief met where I work was talking about how it's trending east and he was expecting snow totals over southern Wisconsin to decrease enough that he could cancel the "Alert Day" for Tuesday.

06Z GFS deepens 13mb in 6 hours, goes from 984mb at FH165 to 971mb at FH171 and still rapidly deepening.

Edit: 967mb over the southern tip of Lake Michigan at FH177, then goes right up the spine of the lake, still deepening. This is the type of storm that sinks ships.

3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Mine’s the 17th. 
 

1/17 as well.

10 minutes ago, andyhb said:

The 500 mb trough with that is... a spectacle, let's just say that.

Giggity.

19 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The potential of the late-week storm is big.  The 18z GFS 500 mb setup is phenomenal and shows what would be the greatest storm on record for Iowa.  Cedar Rapids has had its worst flood ever and worst thunderstorm ever in the last fifteen years.  It is way past time for a record-breaking blizzard.

Is it possible that the early next week storm is just an appetizer? lol. I was so impressed by that (not necessarily by snow totals, just the strength of the trough/sfc low in general and also interested in the potential in the coastal states), I didn't really bother to look beyond.

2 hours ago, andyhb said:

rdy 2 b glaciated

Andy, you still in Norman? About 2-3" there through 384 hours according to that run.

1 hour ago, madwx said:

Milwaukee finished with the warmest December and year on record.  Madison was 4th and T3rd respectively.

Remarkable, since it just doesn't stand out in my mind for sustained anomalous warmth like 1988 (I was too young to remember, but my parents do as that was the summer I got sick on a camping trip with my grandparents and they assumed it was heat-related at first, but I ended up having surgery to remove a [non-malignant] tumor at age 2), 1995 and 2012 do.

Probably because around here you can be +10 to 15 in January-April, and October-December and it still feels cold to pleasant instead of "hot."

Yes, 12Zs backed off on things a bit but how could they not after the insane 06Z run (for GFS at least)? 972 mb over Memphis goes in the weenie run hall of fame.

13 minutes ago, Powerball said:

It's pretty desperate times when grapsing at a *potential* system 10+ days out...

Certainly not grasping at it, just mentioning it. Verbatim a lot of the runs suggest (heavy) rain if anything for most of us. I'd be fine with armchair chasing a winter Dixie outbreak.

6 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Was CRUSHED with 1.7” out of that WSW 

Was just thinking, wasn't that storm yet another 11th hour collapse of what had been consistently modeled high-end totals? All it was was f**king cold.

Anything in the teleconnections that would support the powerhouse being shown on the last several runs of the GFS around the 1/9-10 timeframe? Location, type and ceiling of impacts all way up in the air at this range of course, but a system of that caliber would certainly be very interesting to track regardless.

Overachiever here in Madison due to changeover not occurring as quickly as expected. Totals won't be super impressive but it was ripping fatties for most of the morning. That and a loose dog on the westbound Beltline Highway (variously US 12/14/18/151 across the south edge of the city) made the commute a nightmare.

https://www.wmtv15news.com/2023/12/28/dog-stops-traffic-beltline-literally/

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Zzzzzz 

On to February 

Hey, at least the GFS is giving us fantasy range crush jobs now (for southern WI, still rain for Chicago).