CheeselandSkies

Does the fact that Cristobal has been stuck over the Yucatan for several days and will likely have to rebuild its tropical convective core from near-scratch as it comes back across the GOM have any bearing on impacts for us vs. some of the runs which showed it getting back over water quicker and becoming a Cat 1--2 hurricane?

If some of these runs are to be believed it could become quite a bit deeper over the Midwest than it ever does as a tropical system.

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Still a tropical depression clear into MO

@madwx direct hit on us by Wednesday morning lol

About half an hour ago.

Yeah, seems like HRRR whiffed pretty bad. Did not show robust development this far east this early.

HRRR still doesn't want to give southern WI much of anything. Shows Madison remaining nearly dry overnight.

37 minutes ago, madwx said:

it's pretty impressive to have temps in the upper 80s, dews in the upper 60s and not a single cloud in the sky

Kinda dredges up memories of summer 2012, although it didn't often get that humid.

Pretty violent outbreak and kinda far south for the time of year. By June you think of northern parts of IL/IN/OH plus MI/WI/IA/MN getting in on the action. I mean the affected parts of IL/IN are roughly those along the Tri-State (mid-March) path.

1630 update: 30% hail probabilities trimmed away from us, 5% TOR removed, but hatched area added to 30% wind.

Is it me or is the SPC site getting worse and worse with not displaying outlook updates? 1325 and the 13Z update still does not show for me no matter how many times I refresh. It's available on COD (as usual) which shows it was issued at 1258.

Thank goodness it's not this bad for shorter-fuse products like watches and MDs.

Pretty big expansion of the enhanced risk into WI on the Day 1, now clips the Madison area. Still not overly impressed with the CAMS, though.

Despite our being in the slight risk, the 3K NAM (notorious for blowing up giant MCCs at the slightest provocation) doesn't show southern WI getting much Tuesday night. WRF-ARW seeems to concur. HRW NMMB and WRF-NSSL (not too familiar with those last three CAMS vs. the 3K NAM and HRRR) at least give us some thunder, but not looking to impressive either.

This looks like yet another year where severe events go from missing us to the south, right to missing us to the north.

On 5/28/2020 at 3:07 PM, madwx said:

Middle next week through the weekend is gonna be rockin'

Bring it.

8 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Is that a ring of fire setup building? Lol talk about completely skipping Spring

Par for the course, but I wouldn't mind an actual decent ring of fire setup that actually affects southern Wisconsin.

MKX confirms tornado report near Beloit/Clinton a week ago was bogus.

https://www.weather.gov/mkx/tornadoupdate52320

Finally got to enjoy a decent thunderstorm here. Saturday Madison was stuck under northward-moving training showers. I vacillated too long on whether or not to chase, by the time it was clear the good stuff was going to miss us to the southeast it was too late.

The discussion and probability breakdown seems like something you'd expect to see with a tornado watch issued for a landfalling TC, not in the Midwest in late May.

Nothing but rain, rain, rain here with scarcely a rumble.

Man, I thought no May could be duller than 2018 in the Midwest/Plains. At least that had Tescott for those who were able to get out for it.

2006 and 2009 were pretty bad but they seemed like anomalies in that decade.

2 hours ago, btcs31 said:

Curious - is the swirling mess of clouds which seems to have sat over TN/KY this entire week anything unique? Each day I check the vis sat and it’s more of the same. I literally can’t handle this weather anymore, on top of nothing to do but sit at home. On the plus side, yard and landscape look great.

Ohio Valley cutoffs happen every so often in spring. They're the bane of storm chasers and people who just want to enjoy some nice spring weather. IIRC there was one in early May 2016 but it moved east enough to allow for the sequence that produced Wynnewood, and then the DDC-Chapman sequence happened later in the month.

I seem to recall in 2009 they were still happening in July.

Edit: @Geoboy645 beat me to it.

Difference is the major lack of thunder/severe this time around.

COVID put the kibosh on any Plains dreams I might have had this year, anyway. Of course last year's 3,000 mile round trip to stare at the wall of murk surrounding the Mangum tornado wasn't exactly rewarding or fun. Nothing like driving all that way, getting on the right storm at the right time, and not playing it right.

Yet this virus has shown it's capable of killing seemingly healthy, younger people (including children). Yes the percentages are low, but still far higher than for the flu and is that really a roulette game you wanna play?

10 hours ago, madwx said:

Getting some nice thunder tonight @CheeselandSkies

Somehow I missed it.

5 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Some big bangers this morning. Nice to get woken up by thunder. 

Lucky you. And lucky @A-L-E-K

1 hour ago, wisconsinwx said:

Until this morning, Madison hadn't recorded a thunderstorm since March.  Meanwhile, Rockford just to the south, has had a half dozen days of thunder since March.  Time for this endless early/mid spring weather to turn more summery.

We did record one this morning? Not in my part of town.