CheeselandSkies

Been a long long time since there was a proper regional outbreak. I think you have to go back to Palm Sunday 1965 for one that affected IA, WI, IL, MI, IN and OH.

47 minutes ago, Luftfeuchtigkeit said:

I just got back from running errands - despite the mid-February sun angle and midday timing, it's coming down hard enough to accumulate pretty well out there.  I measured 2.3" when I got back home. 

What part of town are you in? I'm far west side near Mineral Point & the Beltline. @madwx, what are you seeing?

55 minutes ago, Luftfeuchtigkeit said:

It started with light snow around 9am, but now we're getting big wet flakes. Probably already half an inch down. I was expecting very little with this storm because of the northerly track and mixing with rain, but if it keeps this up very long we're going to get more than expected.

I was just thinking to myself looking at radar and out the windows at work that this has the look of an overachiever. Go figure, since totals with this event were not expected to be that impressive to begin with. Why can't we ever get an anticipated big dog that verifies at or above even the high end of guidance?

2 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

-15 here. I am not surprised at all by Black River Falls being -33, they are always like the coldest spot in the area. Them and Lone Rock.

When I was a kid growing up in Madison (early '90s), our TWC local forecasts would always show current conditions at Madison, as you'd expect. However, when I visited my paternal grandparents in Beloit, their local forecasts always began with "Conditions at Lone Rock." This struck me as odd even then, even more so when I realized Lone Rock isn't anywhere near Beloit.

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

My personal favorite is when there is NOT agreement a few days out and the model camps then swap ideas. For example, 4 days out the American models will be north and strong and the foreign models south and weak, then 2 days out the American models will be south and weak and the foreign models will be north and strong.

Seen that happen not just with winter but with potential severe outbreaks and TC track/intensity...craziness.

3 hours ago, Baum said:

huh?

You have to adjust for the Chris Broyles hype factor in any convective outlook he does. He has a history of being enthusiastically over-bullish on severe/tornado potential (he tends to forecast for the worst-case scenario within the model spread, instead of a blend/the most probable).

After hemming and hawing for several days due to model variability...SPC went ahead and dropped a big old Day 4 30% for Dixie Alley...and it wasn't Broyles!

9 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Pretty good hit for Chicagoland on the 12z Euro. Please, whoever makes the storm thread, don't jinx it.

Already a notable shift south from the previous 0Z run which had a big dog for S. WI.

I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp at this point.

47 minutes ago, madwx said:

still looking solid for 3-6" here.  Only the NAM is not playing ball and even that is trending upwards.  12z Canadian shows the heaviest band heading into N Illinois.  Gives Cyclone and Hawkeye a good hit

4.6" would be right up there for us this winter.

2 minutes ago, King James said:

A thunderstorm at this point would be heaven. Hanging out in the mid 30s with clouds all winter is pretty boring.

I know, right?

Man, that broad belt of vigorous 500mb SW flow east of the Rockies on the GFS about 5-7 days from now would be awesome if it was A/M/J. Someone in the sub might still have to keep an eye out for an overachieving early season severe event, although it'll more likely be in the Dixie jungles.

Get to the Air Force Museum while you're in town. A must see when in the area.

While some are complaining about the lack of cold air, I'm wondering why it's basically the same temperature (mid-30s) and sky conditions (overcast) in southern Ohio as I left in Madison. 35 is mild by Wisconsin January standards, so you'd think it could be like in the 50s here, but nooooooo. Also been getting snow showers (melting on contact with the pavement) most of the day.

- Currently in Dayton for my fiancee's brother's Air Force promotion.

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Just in time to make it keep snowing through the end of April and virtually eliminate the storm chase season, just like 2018.

12 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

It's still showing up, eh?  I continue to think that somehow, the Midwest will reel this in.

I sure hope not. Driving to SW OH (Dayton) and back for a family event late next week (Thursday-Saturday). As of yesterday GFS and Euro both painted upper 30s-low 40s and negligible precipitation.

21 minutes ago, madwx said:

QPF numbers have been trending downward on the GFS with this system.  Will be interesting to note this trend throughout the next couple days

What else is new this winter? Although, I'm fine with that since I already postponed my birthday celebration due to snow (was on Friday 1/17) until next Friday, so would just as soon not have to do it again.

17 hours ago, madwx said:

Got down to 0 last night.  A couple chances at subzero lows the next two nights but this stretch is looking milder than it did a few days ago 

Thankfully.

10 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

I think we all can agree that this was one of the most underwhelming storms of all time 

The rain underperformed 

The ice underperformed (not complaining about this part)

The winds underperformed 

Hell even the severe threat down south under performed to an extent 

That's the one thing that did perform pretty close to my expectations. Over 900 wind reports over the two days plus at least three brief but strong (EF2+) tornadoes with embedded supercells. The whole discrete supercells ahead of the line thing always seemed like more of an outside chance than a bona fide threat with this event, to me at least. Lots of soundings with shear vectors parallel to the front, even if there wasn't gnarly VBV in the vertical profile, and the speed shear made for extreme amounts of SRH.

9 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

Didn't Madison verify at least once last year? It's weird, I'm only 30 miles NE and I have verified warnings like 3 times since the beginning of last year.

Possibly, but it seems all the expected big dogs last winter (including the one at the end of April, lol) verified on the low end of expected totals.

Over 700 wind reports over the two days. Impressive serial derecho.

@madwx @DanLarsen34 When was the last WSW event for us that actually verified with totals meeting the criteria?

18 hours ago, mempho said:

Since 1950 the State of TN has only had 6 EF 3+ tornadoes and 2 EF4+ tornadoes.

This- while not impossible - double digit snowfalls would be a more common occurrence.

That doesn't mean that we won't see such an event but I wouldn't bet the house on it either.

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That can't be right. There were at least that many F4+ in the state on April 16, 1998 alone, plus several E/F3+ on days like Veteran's Day 2002, May 4, 2003, Super Tuesday 2008, and April 27, 2011.

2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

The backside better be rocking or everyone is going to embarrassingly bust.
 

(Poor WI crew, from a 20” big dog to advisory levels in a couple models runs hours before onset) 

WSW downgraded to WWA for Dane. This system has confirmed for me that models are pointless. I quit.

4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

Yes but storm mode is still "grungy" as it has been most of the day

once it starts that way it's hard to snap out of it..many outbreaks I have followed underachieved  because of it

 

 

80kt  kt LLJ later may have a surprise or two

 

That's about what I expected for today based on some of the issues I saw in forecast soundings. Storms have been intermittently severe with a few confirmed tornadoes, none particularly long-lasting or violent-potential-appearing (in contrast, to, say the 62-mile track beast of December 16th).

Not that warnings shouldn't be taken seriously, especially at night.

TDS with the western AR cell. I'd post a radar image but my attachment limit is capped at 0.16 MB.