CheeselandSkies

Lacking the visible inversion there and 0 on the SBCINH. SRH and lapse rates look good, perhaps the best I've seen in this region this whole lousy year. Low level winds look weak and veered, but the winds veer further and increase nicely in the 850-700mb layer.

What is the significance of the temperature and dewpoint coming together (100% RH) just below 850mb?

g0oOFus is proving worthless for predicting Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis >48 hours out this year. Euro hasn't been much better but at least it's trying.

Also, GFS actually does show systems. I refer you to: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2849976#p2849976

How does the one in the Gulf not landfall??

@hlcater, where and when are those forecast soundings valid for? Off what model?

@ldub23 this season. TBH I'm starting to get there, too and so are some others based on the state of the season thread lately.

Maybe super-compact intense hurricanes like Andrew and Charley had similar pressure drops in their cores.

Fascinating to think how tropical cyclones in one basin could influence the eventual track of others 180 degrees around the planet. They just seem too far away for that to be possible, but it happens.

So in other words, they are "upgrading" the GFS again just a year after the FV3 became operational?

Guess we'll have to busy ourselves tracking more hurricanes...although @ldub23 says there's too much SAL.

Down to slight, 5% moved to our NE.

I'll keep on saving the gas money for next spring.

(Cartman voice) Weak.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1609.html

Yep, looks like 2020 will join 2018 as a one-and-done chase year for me (August 10th was the only time I got out, to get in the northern fringes of the derecho). In 2018 I didn't get out till a day in October, when a bunch of tornado-warned minisupercells randomly blew up (none actually produced in WI).

I think we are hosed for later today, the way this line is moving in southern MN with some training/back-building in far northern IA it's not going to clear up here by noon unless it breaks up and dissipates.

*Ironically there are actually some breaks in the clouds now (which I wasn't expecting, as I was expecting the overnight line to be here right now or within the next hour) so maybe it can intensify some and be the main show. Still probably nothing worth chasing.

Of course ARX radar is down as I want to see what this line coming in is doing. Apparently it was a planned outage of which today is the last day, so naturally there would be severe weather in the area.

https://www.weather.gov/arx/SLEP_pedestal

Warnings going out locally this afternoon. Wasn't really expecting the action until overnight and tomorrow.

Perhaps someone more thoroughly versed in atmospheric physics can chime in: Why is Laura not getting yanked up by/merging with the midlatitude s/w trough that presumably is responsible for today and tomorrow's severe threat, the way Cristobal was in June?

30 minutes ago, madwx said:

Definitely a chance of tornadoes tomorrow in Wisconsin along the warm front 

Just came on to say that SPC upped us to 5%. Worth noting we just passed the 15th anniversary of 8/18/05, which was a fairly subtle warm front setup. Will see if the hurricane remnants to the south throw a wrench in things (big Gulf Coast hurricane was about 10 days away in 2005), but the juice should already be in place up here. Will definitely be keeping a close eye on things tomorrow afternoon.

12Z 3K NAM has a bow echo about to hit us at 00Z Saturday, HRRR has nothing. Gotta love the long-range CAMs.

Harvey, Michael, Hanna and now Laura. Bombing on approach to the Gulf Coast is the new weakening.

Laura is beginning to star in some next-level satellite porn. I wonder if @ldub23 is getting his fix or if it only counts if it gets named east of 40W?

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Yes, I know.  Laura is doing what Harvey and Michael did.  But at the time of the
above post, doing a nowcast from that was not that unreasonable.  However, the
atmosphere is always throwing curves at you and all us of will be burned some of
time.

This is Laura's first RI, not a system that got strong early in its existence.  
Florence in 2018 was like this (multiple ERCs well before landfall) so it had
expanded in size with the wind field spread out, and that's one reason why it
didn't intensify near landfall despite going over the Gulf Steam (weakened a
lot in fact).  It's easier to tighten up a TC the first time (no RI prior in its
existence).  Laura had struggled all along and now makes its move at the last min.

Irma was the only ATL one I remember that bombed out twice...or was about to before plowing into Cuba.

Just now, forkyfork said:

can a hurricane have two eyes? i don't mean concentric. like oo

That's the new "Double Trouble" since Marco went AWOL.

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Next storm smells fishy, especially if it winds itself up up too fast.

Not with the ridging that's being modeled.

Moar Gulf TC remnants please.

38 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

Madison Parched while MKE with a shot to set a new August Record Monthly Precipitation.  

Yeah, we barely got anything last night (nada on the west side) and most of the derecho missed us to the south, too.

Next chance is late this week, with higher severe probs than last night/this morning (when several warnings went out, and some hail was observed).

Pop-up tornado warning heading toward @Geoboy645's neck of the woods. Rotation looked briefly impressive for 1-2 scans but likely transient.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1564.html