CheeselandSkies

Yeah, things look to ramp up sooner than I'd anticipated given the pattern we've been stuck in. Even yesterday's action kind of came out of left field for me, although we never even sniffed the warm sector here in WI. A week prior I'd have told you no chance of any severe anywhere east of the Rockies through at least April 15.

The view outside my apartment building, prior to spending 10 minutes scraping my car off in a biting north wind before work this morning.

On 3/31/2018 at 6:36 PM, jaxjagman said:

Looking down the road, Asia is fixing to get cranking in the long range  by day 6-7 day period.The MJO is being shown into the IO the 2nd week of March,the AAM is crashing almost -3 sigma.Papers documented with the the MJO getting into the IO and the AAM gets into lower phase 2 shows large tornadoes would be possible during this period in a Nina year.It don't mean for the Valley,just worth mentioning

It would be helpful for non-mets if posts like this with multiple teleconnection acronyms could include a quick summation of what that means for sensible weather in this sub and the rest of the CONUS. This one does (increased severe potential), but I find that's not always the case.

I know what MJO stands for, but haven't the foggiest about what it means for it to be into the IO or what the AAM crashing almost -3 sigma means.

Same old same old, dry and cold for southern Wisconsin. Any weather of consequence misses us to the east/south (this past weekend's snow, tomorrow's severe) or north (tonight/tomorrow's snow).

#AprilFail

#Fapril (February in April)

I despise eastern trough dominated springs, which seem to be the rule rather than the exception. Although, I remember April 2011 as being raw, gray and convectively uneventful as we were stuck on the cool side of most of the systems after the April 10th one (which, maddeningly, produced most of its tornadoes NORTH of southern Wisconsin). Even had snow showers on the 18th.

I just realized something, going back and rereading the April 9th, 2011 Day 2 outlooksvalid for April 10th. It always seemed to me like that event underperformed its potential based on the wording of those Day 2 outlooks, even though by Wisconsin standards it was fairly significant (16 tornadoes, 1 EF3 and 3 EF2), the wording  -particularly in the initial one- made it sound like it would be April 27 for the upper Midwest (2 1/2 weeks before anyone knew what "April 27" meant). Now I know why that is...IT WAS BROYLES!!!

34 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Exactly. It is ****-ing spring. Time for tracking severe weather threats down south and getting psyched for chasing.

OTOH, the closest thing the upper Midwest/Great Lakes has ever had to an April 27th, Palm Sunday 1965, occurred in the midst of a winter that refused to go quietly with cold and snow lingering over much of the affected area in the preceding weeks (or so I've read here). Seems like that had a lot more significant (blizzard-type) snowstorms, though. Just had some little showers pop up and moisten the parking lot, and it's the first precipitation I recall seeing in at least two weeks, since that snow I was semi-psyched for a couple days ago missed us to the southwest.

15 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Asia shows a trough going through Mongolia by day 7 on the Euro then a upper low into China,the typhoon is still being shown to die out.Either way towards the end of week one into week 2 of April we could be once again looking at a good system.The whole chorus this late winter into early spring has been suppressed systems.But still i see some good signals.On the RRWT lifted Index it's showing the lift tapping into the GOM and coming into the lower OV,with the BSR maps showing a warm front lifting northward into the lower OV with a cold front on it's heels.

LOL, I like the "storm" and "developing gale" notations across the central CONUS.

Never thought I'd be one to be looking forward to snow in late March, but it has been so blasted dry we need all the precip we can get any way we can get it.

Well in any case the Plains especially along and west of I-35 need all the rain they can get between now and May.

I’ve heard that the effects of the SSW could last until late April. 

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32 minutes ago, bjc0303 said:

Unfortunately I am most confident in that massive northeastern ridging, given model forecasts and the continuing effects of the Feb SSW. But even so, the GFS and its ensemble do paint an elevated severe risk day. I can’t help but be in love with the GFS ensemble mean for Sunday. 

 

The Euro is a different story. We will see - I am not confident the GFS will win here, but I do like the look of the ensemble mean. 

Ugh. WHEN is it going to wane?

12Z GFS solution still maintains a fairly robust severe threat for next Sunday along the I-35 corridor in OK/southern KS.

Although, it is rather disconcerting to see the surface low and its associated warm sector basically get crushed between one cold air mass to its east and another to its northwest, instead of continuing to deepen as it lifts towards the upper Midwest on Monday.

Recent GFS runs would support some degree of severe threat in the southern/central Plains next Sunday, the 25th. Warm sector SRH and EHI took a big jump from the 00z to the 06z run, popping some impressive analogs. Remains to be seen if it has legs, but it's the next thing to watch.

12 minutes ago, monsoonman1 said:

12z GFS has trough after trough swinging through the middle of the country from this weekend on, which is about all we can ask for right now. 

I'd say a tad earlier in the season than ideal for such an active pattern. Much like last year, might run into a problem with not enough moisture recovery between systems, although as it stands right now (one system next Sunday-Monday and then another the following Friday-Saturday) it shouldn't be as much of an issue. I know I've said it before, but it sure would be nice to get a look like that from late April through May one of these years.

One thing that the last few years have taught me is that with any given early season setup, actual dewpoint value doesn't matter as much as long as LCL is not too high (not too much of a difference between dewpoint and temperature) and the upper levels are sufficiently cold. The setups in late March-early April '17 that underwhelmed had other issues besides moisture. You get ideal shear profiles and cold upper levels, and marginal-looking surfaced T/Td can get the job done (3/15/16, 2/28/17).

Way too early to take seriously, but 12Z GFS also has a nice little event in IA/MO for Saturday the 24th. That's the 2nd run in a row that suggests another potent system 5-7 days after the first.

Yes, the GFS strongly suggests that St. Patrick's Day weekend into early the following week should be watched closely. Of course the details on location and ceiling of a given day's event are changing wildly from run to run, but the general pattern has been consistent for several days now.

In fact, it brings another system behind that one for late in week-2, suggesting this western trough might be good for more than one potent system. Would love to see a look like the 06Z run has for hour 180 through 324 valid for sometime in May, preferably my vacation week.

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At this point I don't want to see any forecasts of a "very cold North America," especially not from King Euro.

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We'll see.I know i'm harping it,but signs are coming together

Can we please bottle the 300-hour 12Z GFS surface and H5 solution and have it verify in May, preferably when I'm on vacation?

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That trough on the 126 hour GFS valid for Wednesday evening tho...would put tomorrow to shame if anything close to that verifies. Still a ways out, though.

Currently, the only T-warned cell looks like a QLCS mesovortex and is moving into a bad radar hole. It's one of the several situations around the country where they need to just draw a quadrilateral between KSHV, KPOE, KDGX, and KLZK and place another radar smack dab in the center (not going to happen under the current administration).

Ballsy call by the SPC to introduce a risk area for Day 6. I thought they were being overly bearish holding off on a Day 5 risk area last Thursday valid for today given what the Euro was advertising, but they ended up being spot-on.

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3 hours ago, rolltide_130 said:

I do feel like, in terms of overall chaser/severe nerd morale, 2018 is a make or break year. Another bad year might just be the straw that breaks the camel's back for a lot of us who are heavily interested and invested in this side of weather after the consistent record-low activity followed by an extremely disappointing and messy year this year despite the AA raw numbers. I will say I am hopeful that the fact that we're getting our current base NW flow state out of the way in December will open the doors to a much improved overall synoptic pattern once things start thawing in the Spring. Usually having a hyperactive J-F-Early March spells trouble for the peak season save for 2008. 

Amen to that. From '12 through '17, the rule was quality over quantity. Then '17 flipped that on its head. Still waiting for the next event that has a Pilger, Dodge City, Rozel, Bennington, Rochelle-Fairdale, Vilonia, and Elmer-Tipton all lined up from the triple point on down the dryline.

Of course, I'd be singing a different tune had I not been one mistake away from missing both Pilger and Rochelle.

Add to that, I could have chased February 28th of this year but committed to helping a buddy do clean-up/repair work at the condo he was moving out of because hey, it was FEBRUARY in Wisconsin/northern Illinois. What were the chances, really? Then the upper Midwest essentially shut down during peak season except for that one day in mid-May (the 17th?) which I chased. It featured some of the most insane speed shear seen in that time of year in a long time but something still seemed wonky and the storms had trouble really getting going...then there was June 28th which I also chased but was limited in how far I could go by work constraints and all the quality tornadoes occurred west of my range.

6 hours ago, bjc0303 said:

Let us all take a moment of silence for that one late April system that held so much promise - yeah, the one that had I-35 outbreak written all over it by not only the GFS but the Euro as well? - yeah that one. Days before, both models said "HAHA NOPE" and it became total garbage.

This, so much. Biggest model fail I've personally seen in regards to severe. I'm used to the GFS spitting out lol fantasy storms anytime beyond about 100 hours for severe, winter and tropical but when the Euro was on board I was hearing "Humans Being" in my head.

Totally killed my faith in the globals. Not sure it's even worth trying to use them to plan a chasecation this season.