CheeselandSkies

59 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

That would be a very 2020 track and perfect scenario to end this whack year

Again, what happened to these things forming in the Rockies and moving NE?

On 12/24/2020 at 11:14 AM, Brian D said:

Well, here we go again Upper Midwesterners. The potential for another strong hit. Post your thoughts and model runs in the coming days.

 

This would be a tornado outbreak track in April/May so watch a "winter" pattern decide to set up then.

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

New Euro follows seasonal trends.  Iowa/Minnesota cash in while IL/IN twiddles their thumbs awaiting the next system.

 

#GradientLife

On 12/22/2020 at 8:19 AM, michsnowfreak said:

very snowy winter...id allow a Jan tornado lol

I think it's already been too dry/snowless in Dec. for a '07-'08 redux which I have seen tossed out a lot as an analog for this Niña. On the plus side, if some of the modeled storms in the next week or two pan out, at least the entire central CONUS won't be going into spring and summer bone dry as in '11-'12.

Thought we were gonna get something out of this. Now it looks like melt today/flash freeze tomorrow with no new snow, so a dirty glacier Christmas it is. Yay.

That snow we got the 11th-12th is now rendered basically pointless.

3 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

So uhh the Euro went a little nuts out west around New Years Day.

Good thing it's Kuchera at 222 hrs. So the chances of this happening are zilch to none. But just to even see this modeled at fantasyland is crazy.

The day Salina, KS has 46" on the ground while we have like 4" I will literally eat a hat.

Although, I like the idea of building up a big snowpack over the Plains. Might help forestall the standard La Niña drought and help chase season '21 be rockin'.

9 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Based on Euro performance divide totals by 5 and move track either 300 miles NW or SE

Yeah WTH happened to the "King"?

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, the hype machine was in full effect.  I remember TWC even broke out "heavy snow" on their outlook maps a few days in advance, which was something rarely seen.

When does that happen anymore in this sub, for winter or severe? A big dog is forecast for days AND it actually pans out as such.

13 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

The EPO is toast this winter. Its clearly a -AO winter which suggests no ssw either. As the season expands on, colder, more snowier pattern should descend over the plains, building snowpack. As the season progresses, troughs should become deeper and more amplified due to the blocking getting more traction with the 500mb pattern. Lets just say the pre-Christmas front is the beginning of this process.

Interesting tension there as I was of the understanding that -AO is favorable for snow/cold in the central and eastern CONUS...but so is SSW.

Looks like dry air ate up the dusting we were supposed to get overnight.

15 hours ago, andyhb said:

Aside from the 8/10 derecho, lol this severe season. Can’t say things are looking up for next year for us out here in the Plains with the raging drought out west and La Niña conditions, but I could certainly see some Midwest shenanigans.

La Niña  can be such a mixed bag. You have years like 2011 (obviously an extreme example but the general idea of being dangerous in Dixie holds), which wasn't great in the Plains/Midwest in May/June apart from that late-May series which included Joplin, 2012 which aside from a couple early outbreaks was obliterated by drought, and 2008 which was IMO one of the best all-around severe seasons in my memory, although I could have done without so much flooding. Activity commenced with that early January N IL/SE WI outbreak, Super Tuesday in Dixie, and continued right on through peak with about a 3-week stretch of nonstop action from late May through mid-June.

...and ya, 2020 sucked for interesting weather unless you're a hurricane chaser. Even the Cristobal remnants were a downer here, just wasted an early June day on drizzly, blustery conditions more suited to early spring or fall.

1 minute ago, pondo1000 said:

When DO they?

February 2018. Snowed well into April and obliterated chase season (didn't think it could get any worse in that regard, then 2020 happened).

39 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The NWS way. And they didn't even put correlation coefficient on there, only the most useful dual pol product. Can't wait until the next new page comes out in 15 years.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

As I said in another thread, good thing I use either GR Level 3 (PC), Radarscope (phone), or COD website (public/work computers). Still, shame the official U.S. government forecasting agency has such a poor radar product on their site. Definitely seems like a step backward but it's far from the only one.

11 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

This is a bit OT but the new "updated" radar for weather.gov sucks. Why on Earth did they get rid of the nice radar?
 

Yes it does. Who decided that was a good idea?

Good thing I've used GR Level 3 almost exclusively since I got it, Radarscope (on my phone), or COD website (when on a public/shared device that doesn't have either of the aforementioned applications).

4 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Yep then lied that the prisoner escaped through the window when all he did was open the back door. No leg shackles just hand cuffs. Just ran off. Have to admit before the era of surveillance cameras,  body cameras, and cellphone videos just how much lying, corruption, and covering up were police departments engaged in. Scary to speculate

Yikes. They didn't even put the "child" locks on to prevent him from doing that.

From the LR thread:

I feel like storm systems used to spin up in the lee of the Rockies and then raise hell (winter + severe) from there to the east coast throughout winter and spring. For the better part of the last decade it seems like everything forms/intensifies east of us. The only impact events the Midwest gets anymore are sneaky mesoscale accidents like the August derecho.

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Guy is still on the loose btw, and it's turned into an even bigger story around here because it is obvious that the company who was responsible for transporting him (it was not local/county/state police) was lax with their procedures and then tried to lie about how it happened... there is surveillance footage that contradicts their account of the escape.  Good luck trying to find this guy in public now in the era when you can wear a mask and blend right in. 

I saw the footage this morning. The prisoner escaped while the company driver was ordering at a McDonald's drive-thru.

27 minutes ago, madwx said:

Surprise clear blue skies today.  Pretty nice for what is usually one of the cloudiest months of the year

Chief met at my works' forecast of mostly cloudy skies today not looking so hot.

So, I was just reviewing my outdoor photos taken around southern Wisconsin during the 2006-'07 winter and I noticed something...

In photos taken on December 29, 2006, there was BARE GROUND. Not a trace of snow anywhere.

In photos taken on March 11, 2007, there were large dirty piles/glaciers on every curb and in every parking lot. The melt-off was well underway, but clearly a LOT of snow fell during that roughly 10-week interval. I don't recall the particulars of that winter in southern Wisconsin very well since I spent the bulk of it in northeast Wisconsin while attending UW-Green Bay (kind of like what @Geoboy645 is doing now), but I recall it being pretty snowy up there as well.

So there is hope...maybe it won't meet Beavis standards, but at least it's something for the rest of us.

9 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

Around here we finished up with 5-6" of snow. It was a pretty nice first snowstorm, not too much to write home about. At least it looks like December for a few days.

So you're back in southern Wisconsin for now?

9 hours ago, madwx said:

we definitely got a localized jackpot here.  6" at my place and between 6-9 throughout the county.  MSN jackpot from 2007 is back baby.   

I have mixed feelings about this.

1 hour ago, madwx said:

MSN got down to 10 this morning.  still only at 13 right now, a good 13 degrees cooler than areas nearby with much less snowcover

View out my window this morning.

1.5" at Freeport, IL as of 0300 according to a report marker that popped up on my GR Level 3.

On 12/10/2020 at 5:54 AM, A-L-E-K said:

Getting close to the time where the dull weeks start hurting as we waste good climo 

That's how I feel about chase season every year when "winter" decides to show up from the back half of March through April and sometimes the front half of May.