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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    SPC has now added a Day 5 risk area for Friday encompassing western IA/eastern NE, but they mention that they expect primarily a linear storm mode with a wind threat. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Last few GFS runs have slowed things down quite a bit, now has a western Iowa/eastern NE threat on Friday; perhaps E IL/IN on Saturday.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Guess I'll have to actually look at some modeling for this, haven't done anything other than read SPC's Day 4-8 discussions the last couple days. Been spending too much time on another forum reading posts arguing back and forth whether T.S. Elsa is strengthening or not. *Edit* On latest GFS at least, looks like another I-74/I-70 corridor event for Friday.
  4. CheeselandSkies
  5. CheeselandSkies
    I come on here today and it looks totally different than before, and I'm getting a bunch of random "badge" notifications.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    From SPC 4-8. Summer is typically a low-predictability regime for severe (although lately when is A/M any different?) so kind of bold of them to put this in here at this range, and it's not Broyles! I personally haven't looked at any modeling for this time frame yet. Have to see if the presence of Elsa in the Gulf messes up the moisture return, although it seems like it should be out of there by then.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    I'm really surprised 2012 wasn't warmer. Guess the heat didn't really build in until late in the month into July. I remember the 4th weekend was brutal, was living in Milwaukee at the time and had a gig running camera for the Racine cable access station's coverage of their parade. Soaked my shirt through and that was with some modulation from the lake.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Forecast high for Sunday is 91. What happened to the talk of a mild/cool 4th?
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Actually witnessing some of the longest-duration heavy rain I have personally seen this entire sequence right now with this teensy little shower that popped up overhead.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Our 2012 seems mild in comparison to what the NW is going through right now. I'd be willing to take some of that off their hands for maybe a couple days. At least we have more A/C here and are somewhat used to summer heatwaves, although not days and days of 110s/90s. Crazy how places at similar latitude can have such different climate norms.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    The area where the warned storm was was even cut out of the marginal risk at 1630Z. Unexpected to say the least.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Heavy rain shower coming up through Green County did a passable impression of a tornadic supercell on reflectivity. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Well congrats to those of you in IL/IN/MI who got in on some big action in this pattern, but as for me...
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Not so for WI. Just had a few random weak spin-ups on the 24th in the Northwoods.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY... At 756 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Howell, moving east at 25 mph. An additional thunderstorm capable of producing a tronado was located northwest of Pinckney. At the moment the southern signature near Pinckney heading towards Brighton looks far more impressive, could just be proximity to DTX radar though.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    From MKX's afternoon AFD: Good to know they think just like me.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Looks like no hope for clearing around here.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Location of warm front and triple point tomorrow evening would suggest threat for my backyard, but models seem to keep better parameters shunted south roughly along the same latitude where they were today. Will re-evaluate in the morning. Edit: HRRR seems to have a secondary triple point (possible mesolow?) south of the Quad Cities late tomorrow afternoon which effectively "intercepts" the best parameters south of the main low over northeastern Iowa. Surface winds are a little veered in between the two.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    So, still baking in the interior Northwest.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    Meanwhile a sneaky marginal risk has popped up for us tomorrow with talk of a later upgrade possible, on yesterday's Day 3 outlook it just clipped the far southeast corner of Wisconsin.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    00Z HRRR slashes 48-hour total for Madison from 2" at 12Z to 0.2." Narrow jackpot stripe of nearly 6" still runs from Sauk through northern Columbia, far southeast Marquette, and into Green Lake/western Fond du Lac Counties.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    I'd have about a 3.5-4 hour drive just to get to the edge of the 2%. No thanks.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    That's yesterday's.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    The patchwork nature of the bigger totals over Iowa/northern Illinois and Wisconsin from this sequence will make for some stark divides between green/brown grass and winners/losers among farmers. Certainly not what we were expecting/hoping for just a few days ago for areas north/west of the gravy train which now looks to be from eastern Kansas through central MO/IL/IN and then northeast across NW OH/SE lower MI and into Ontario.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    HRRR now shows us getting an additional 2" from now through 12Z Sunday (and up to nearly 6" in Sauk County, they always seem to get doused in these setups, with devastating flooding in 2008 and 2018). @cyclone77 is in the screw zone from SE IA through NW IL, though.
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