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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    12Z HRRR has the current Iowa/MN stuff mostly dissipating/lifting into MN by early afternoon, with a somewhat cellular to broken line appearance to the later afternoon convection that develops in IA/WI. 06Z 3KM NAM OTOH shows us getting split. Develops a big MCS/bow echo in MN/northwestern WI in the early evening that largely dies out before it gets here in the early morning hours of Thursday, with more storms developing in northern IL.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Still near-full sunshine in Madison as of 0715. MD already out... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1279.html
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Rarely of late for a day with expected severe potential, we are starting off the morning with full sunshine...
  4. CheeselandSkies
    18Z HRRR is less interesting from a chase perspective (surprise surprise), but it suggest 3 rounds of storms might be possible for S. WI. One around 18-20Z, one 20-22Z (which is portrayed as the strongest despite seemingly insufficient recovery time after the first) and another around 04-06Z overnight into Thursday morning. This would certainly help with our precip deficit if nothing else.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Large Day 2 Enhanced risk over IA/MN/WI is thread-worthy...maybe...
  6. CheeselandSkies
    That's surprising, I more expect him to be excessively bullish on severe/particularly potential compared to what actually pans out. What day was that?
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Do you expect this to kill the instability for the day?
  8. CheeselandSkies
    ENH expanded south at 1730Z, as I expected based on 12Z CAMs. Eh, it is Broyles, though. The explicit mention of the NAM soundings gave it away before I even got to the signature. @Chicago Storm
  9. CheeselandSkies
    12Z 3KM NAM is similar but a little quicker and more linear...ENH area is going to need to be adjusted south dramatically. Edit: Then it fires up Round 2 in IA.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    12Z HRRR...MBY...that is all.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    I thought it was just Broyles.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Typical; we go from a miss south to a miss north. Could be interesting for someone: EDIT: HRRR is actually more intriguing with southern WI potential than the 3K NAM. Both suggest northeastern Iowa could be in play.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Ninja'ed me dagnabit.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Unexpected...
  15. CheeselandSkies
    New Day 3...
  16. CheeselandSkies
    GFS's coarse sim radar continues to hint at a possible southeastward-moving MCS/derecho in the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. It's in NAM range as of this morning which is typically bonkers with the instability. We shall see...
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Looks like main MCS/possible derecho is gonna track east and south of the ENH area. *Although, there is another one to the west in NE.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    06Z GFS with next c*** tease bust set for next Wednesday.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Miss well southwest. See @cyclone77's avatar.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    Seems like all of our tor warnings in this region (MKX/LOT/eastern DVN/southern ARX CWAs) these days happen at random on marginal/no-risk days, and either are never confirmed or are landspouts/cold-air funnels. I mean, I don't expect sig tors to be exactly common but a few legit EF1-2s per year would be, I dunno...(used to be) normal? In retrospect, 2015-16 were really busy in northern IL with Rochelle, the two June 22nds and 3/15/16.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    I got that at first (it acted like I was logged out and gave me that "network error" whenever I tried to log in again), then it randomly started working again this morning.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    SPC has now added a Day 5 risk area for Friday encompassing western IA/eastern NE, but they mention that they expect primarily a linear storm mode with a wind threat. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Last few GFS runs have slowed things down quite a bit, now has a western Iowa/eastern NE threat on Friday; perhaps E IL/IN on Saturday.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Guess I'll have to actually look at some modeling for this, haven't done anything other than read SPC's Day 4-8 discussions the last couple days. Been spending too much time on another forum reading posts arguing back and forth whether T.S. Elsa is strengthening or not. *Edit* On latest GFS at least, looks like another I-74/I-70 corridor event for Friday.
  25. CheeselandSkies
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