CheeselandSkies

4/9/15 says hi...of course I didn't believe it the day of, either which is why I missed it. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

That or it gives them enough time to get themselves into trouble, for example by trying to evacuate out of the path and (if in a metro area) creating a traffic jam.

I work 3AM-noon, so not too far off.

GFS has 54 degrees at 06Z Monday, NAM 51...

Raw and overcast with rain and show showers this morning. Had a brief period of unexpected sunshine a little bit ago, now spitting rain again. Sounds about right for April in Wisconsin, especially a La Nina April. Edit: And three minutes later, sun shining into my window again.

Regardless of how exactly next week shakes out, it's a good thing it'll be the one week this month when both KMKX and KDVN are up.

Grass at my work is starting to green up in the sunshine this morning. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

For MI, perhaps. For IA/IL/WI confluence... Looking for redemption after sitting out 3/5.

GFS bouncing around as usual at this range but some runs bring some pretty big CAPE values well up into the sub mid-next week.

Looks like a snow globe out there. More of this in December, less in April, please.

Looks -y. One thing I've learned over the past few years, La Nina alone isn't enough. Gotta stop putting off that pre-chase season work on my car. 3/5 caught me unprepared.

Winds howling out there tonight. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Hope we in the NW sub can get into some of that severe action, too. It's always annoying when we get a significant event way earlier in the season than seems right at this latitude (Winterset day) and then get plunged back into winter with nothing else of note until late May or June. If we can get sufficient Gulf juice for an EF4 up here on March 5th, we can jolly well do it on April 15th.

I wonder if there's a little more heating today vs. initial forecast thinking over the past few days. Probably not enough to make a huge difference but could contribute to a higher impact event or two.

Seems there was already some pretty significant (probable) tornado damage in Springdale, AR.

Derechos come in two major forms, progressive and serial. You're probably thinking of a progressive derecho, which tend to consist of a single large (but usually somewhat more compact vs. a serial derecho) bow echo with an intense rear inflow jet and often a mesolow/wake low. A serial derecho is associated with a long, narrow squall line (several hundred miles N-S, say from the MS/OH River confluence down to the Gulf Coast) with multiple small bow echos/line-echo wave pattern signatures, and embedded mesovortices and/or supercells. Today's event is expected to be closer to the serial type.

I suppose if they think the threat of EF2+ QLCS tornadoes is great enough, they could go with a PDS tornado watch (would have verified on 12/15, lol) but it's unlikely IMO. They also seem to be thinking there could be a somewhat greater tornado threat with the later storms further south; they could decide that could warrant a PDS by virtue of its timing.

It depends on how things evolve tomorrow, but I'm thinking the threat of QLCS tornadoes will be substantial enough with the forecasted low-level wind profiles that they'll go with tornado watches.

I think I've yet to see a high risk solely for wind actually verify, in the sense of producing an outcome so exceptional and impactful that it seemed worthy of such an unusual forecast. The only ones that would meet that criteria IMO are the May 30-31, 1998 Great Lakes derecho and the August 2020 Iowa derecho; both of which maxed out at Moderate for the derecho itself (5/31/98 got a high risk in parts of NY/PA for tornadoes later in the day, after the initial derecho had weakened). Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

As I posted in Central/Western regarding next Wednesday, when we may (at least briefly) get into the warm sector of an intense surface low ahead of another one of those excessively amplified, meridional flow troughs: 00Z and 06Z GFS have rather paltry instability throughout the warm sector despite upper 50s dewpoints all the way to southern Wisconsin (equal to or greater moisture as the model was forecasting to reach this latitude on March 5th at this range). That's probably a factor of the sheer amount of convection the model breaks out.

00Z and 06Z GFS have rather paltry instability throughout the warm sector despite upper 50s dewpoints all the way to southern Wisconsin (equal to or greater moisture as the model was forecasting to reach this latitude on March 5th at this range). That's probably a factor of the sheer amount of convection the model breaks out. This trough appears to have some of the same issues as the last one, mainly very meridional (SSW to even southerly or SSE) 500mb flow which is parallel to the initiating boundary (cold front) which often makes for a messy convective mode in which it's hard to get long-lived, discrete tornadic supercells. That said, there will probably be significant severe weather somewhere as with the last system.

Much needed...hope it verifies. As bad as the western drought is, the further east it extends is even worse for chaseable weather.

Well obviously a vastly different type of damage, so it's hard to make a fair comparison. Katrina submerged the whole neighborhood in water for days on end, so all the houses were still standing but filled with mold and uninhabitable. Tornado levels everything in a small area.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRIMES...CENTRAL MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTIES... At 932 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Madisonville, moving northeast at 40 mph.