CheeselandSkies

SVR EAS alert just interrupted my Bucks game on Spectrum... already more than happened yesterday ofc. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

SPC has MD out mentioning potential for landspouts over northern IL. There's currently a severe-warned cell nearly stationary over Peru/La Salle. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0724.html I'm planning to stay home in the A/C and watch the Bucks game.

4,000 j/kg of CAPE on May 10th and all we can manage is a slight risk cap bust.

Quite a few earlier runs of the HRRR had a sup firing and tracking through some combination of Richland/Sauk/Columbia Counties with a robust UH streak from about 20-22Z. At the time I made that post, the latest couple runs (starting with the first one to come in after I left the house, go figure) dropped that and there was no sign of incipient CI in that area.

Today is starting to reek of bust in southern WI. Storm of the day might end up being that one between Oelwein, IA and Prairie du Chien. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0708.html

Last few HRRR runs have brought back that Sauk County supercell this afternoon and have been pretty consistent with it. Still in bad terrain but at least not right along the river valley. Mesoanalysis suggests some sort of surface "perturbation" (not really a low) with backed sfc winds will move through that area, so this seems plausible.

Interesting, SPC expanded 5% tor probs southward to include Madison and added a hatched hail area despite HRRR's downtrending with convective coverage and UH.

Go figure, last couple HRRR runs kill off the storms in southern WI just as they start to move out of the horrible terrain of the WI River valley. Not real keen on chasing the Northwoods on May 10th.

Was not expecting the slight risk for tomorrow. Now 12Z HRRR puts a sup right through Columbia County. 0-1 KM SRH appears to be lacking on soundings, though. Yet EHI is large because of monster CAPE. Go figure we get a high CAPE/low shear setup at 43 north in early May.

That stupid cutoff (remnants of the previous trough that produced the severe weather Wednesday through yesterday) is what will ruin this next few days of would-be setups by preventing the next trough from ejecting across the Plains properly.

Of course we all kind of suspected this was coming but it's depressing to watch it unfold on the GFS. Monster CAPE/moisture finally arrives early next week but no upper support/trigger. Hello, summer.

May 31, El Reno tornado killed Tim Samaras & crew and became the widest tornado (officially) on record.

Kind of odd how with the extended stretch of BA temps (leafout is the furthest behind on May 2nd I ever recall it being in my adult life, and that includes the godawful springs of 2014 and 2018); yet I've already been on two local/regional storm chases this year (could have been three if I hadn't been dumb and sat out 3/5), which is more than I usually have by this point in the spring. For obvious reasons, I associate severe potential with AA temps and the (theoretically) accompanying moisture/instability.

Spent yesterday afternoon basically driving in a circle from Madison-Rochelle-Paw Paw-Mendota-Amboy-Franklin Grove-Rochelle-Marengo-Harvard-Madison. I first bit on the original round of development, there was one cluster with its tail-end cell showing a bit of a hook structure on reflectivity near Paw Paw so I exited I-39 to eastbound Chicago Road though Paw Paw. I was out of position on the wrong side of the cell relative to where the rain-free/updraft base/area of interest would be were it to become an actual supercell, so I went all the way east and then south on Leland Road to get a view. By this time it was already looking less interesting on radar and another cluster was filling in to its immediate south, and none of this seemed in any hurry to do anything (no warnings at this point). I decided to bail for a new cluster that was developing near/north of Kewanee so I went west on Suydam Road through Rollo and looped back to Paw Paw and I-39 to Mendota, then west on US 34 and northwest on US 52 to Sublette and Amboy. Then up to Franklin Grove and back to Rochelle, then on I-39 once again northbound to 64, through Esmond to Fairdale. I was eastbound on 72 between Kirkland and Kingston when the tornado warning went out for Boone County to my north. I had been keeping pace with the tail south end of the cluster, expecting that if anything was going to do something, that would be it. Instead it was the north end that went tornadic, although it didn't appear chaseable on radar (a big, bowing comma head with the couplet buried deep in the heavy rain) it was the only game in town and it was on my way home. I made a futile bid to catch up to it on 23 to Harvard, as it had a much more northerly than easterly component to its motion, but never could reach it before the warnings expired and I just took US-14 home, a nice way to avoid paying another toll on I-39/90.

Broke off the mediocre eastern cluster near Paw Paw, now sitting in Sublette to see if this stuff to my WSW or the stuff down by Peoria does anything. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

We'll see if that stuff between Prophetstown and Kewanee does anything... Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

That's the problem w/narrowing down a target today, CAMS and SPC are no help lol. Partially my proximity bias at play but the IL/WI stateline region looks as good as any as it's where the tongue of moisture gets pulled back toward the TP.

Probably head down to Rochelle early afternoon and go from there...as usual.

This would definitely make my cut for a 21st-century "Tornado Video Classics" compilation. There's so much HD footage being taken of almost every event now, it's sometimes hard to pick out what's really special. Not in this case.

I was referring to the Wichita area stuff apparently failing to become sustained/organized before total darkness, and the NE/KS border area stuff getting undercut by the cold front and clustering up before it could produce a long-track significant tornado.

Embedded sup SW of TWX radar has had an impressive couplet at times over the last 20 minutes.

Really strange behavior on radar...almost looks like the tornado moved north across the back end of the supercell instead of moving along with it.

Of course...literally the minute I call bust and stop paying attention.

Reminds me so much of how 5/26/21 played out. Dryline target seemed to be uptrending throughout the day of, only to fail anyway.