George BM

The sounding is valid just ahead of a strongly-forced very fast moving line of severe thunderstorms along an arctic cold front. We are under a Moderate risk of severe weather for WIND (45% hatched). There are also 10% TOR probs across the region... though I'm particularly watching that QLCS tornado threat as effective SRH looks be potentially be on the order of 700 m2/s2. While wind is the main threat don't sleep on the tornado threat at all. All the CAMs have several decent helicity swaths through the entire region, especially along and east of the mountains where CAPE looks to be the highest w/ low LCLs. It would actually not surprise me if we end up seeing more tornadoes w/ this event than with the February 7th event this year. We could also get a quick 6"+ of snow within 30-60 minutes with this event! Overall I'm feeling really excited about this event and am happy that we may finally get a decent area-wide severe event. I definitely look forward to the multiple case studies that will undoubtedly be done for this one.

Pumpkin Spice and dead leaves fragrance the air.

@losetoa6 Welp?...

I've tried looking for them. Do you happen to have their links?

I remember that day as well. I remember some heavy showers throughout the day w/ breezy conditions. I remember getting home from school in Herndon hust after 2:30pm and being surprised that the main line was already right on my doorstep. Looking back at that thread I remember lots on here being surprised at how early the main line arrived as well. There were brief torrential rains and wind gusts into the 30s (mph) here from the line. I noticed no thunder/lightning at all from it. I too was surprised to see looking back at SPC archives for that event a few years later that we had been placed under a MDT risk for wind (45% non-hatched). That would just be a high-end ENH risk the way that SPC works today. I remember the lack of tornado warnings as well despite being in a 10% non-hatched tor risk. The September 8th, 2012 event ten days prior, on the other hand, was a lot more impressive in the region with a lot of minor wind damage. I got wind gusts of 50+ mph in my neighborhood from that event. The funny thing is that the line from that event seemed more impressive down here than it did up the urban corridor where there was an actual MDT risk in the place... save for the Long Island tornadoes that day. As a whole though, that September was definitely a bit more exciting than usual severe weather-wise.

@BlizzardNole Hmm... Not too often I see this profile pic outside of winter. 75/65 at IAD atm.

BWI: 10/04 IAD: 10/04 DCA: 10/26 RIC: 10/12 Tiebreaker: 87F

If this can track far enough NW,@losetoa6 may be able to score a full TWO hundredths of an inch of rain. That's right. Not even one hundredth, but TWO.

This is going to be the second system in a row where the rain we get is from remnant tropical. The third event in a row with a tropical connection (There was tropical moisture from 94L on Sept 10th). There have been four storm systems (including this one just starting to affect us now) to affect us this month. Of those four systems only the first system (the one that gave some of us severe weather on September 3rd) did not have tropical connections. ... Man... I REALLY need to work on my grammar... Hopefully you all understood what I said.

@yoda Hmm... LWX radar down indefinitely... a strong trough moving in early/mid next week... Verifying Moderate risk day, here we come!

November of last year ended up with below average temperatures overall. So yeah probably last year.... but then again also the year before including the November 15th, 2018 snow event for some.

Maybe an early season snow chase at Canaan from moisture on the west side of a decent tropical remnant hit in the DMV region.

This is just me being 'Curious George' but what would the winter weather pattern look like if there was ever a "super" la nina (ONI < -2.0C)? - TIA

Let's just go all the way for a super La Nina. It would be interesting to see what it would do during winter and next spring. Severe weather train rolling on for months?

IAD got down to 38F. I saw frost on the roofs of some houses earlier. There's still about 80 minutes of astronomical summer left.

Meanwhile, cicada storms are around the corner.

Oh. I thought that you'd put 780F because of the asteroid set to strike the DMV region on October 28th. Nevermind. But I think I'll go 783F for the tie breaker.

Nah... snowfall rates need to be AT LEAST as intense as they were during your 'Spooky Scary Goose Whiteout'. Heck, why stop there. We should go all the way for @RDM's vertigo glacier special. A couple QLCS spin-ups along the leading edge would be a nice touch as well.

I'm 24.

Two years earlier for you (probably): "I've never seen it this wet and nasty in the 40 years I've been alive."

Looking at the radar you may actually fairly easily get another 0.00" of rain through the remainder of the evening and into the overnight hours.

Wow! What a game changer.

Finally seeing a faint orange/red circle 30 minutes after sunrise.

I cannot see the sun through the smoky haze yet over 20 minutes after sunrise.