George BM

Today will feature a slightly smoky sky following this mornings clouds from the Western US wildfires. Now we won't see Star Wars-level orange skies though... just skies similar to some of the smoky skies we experienced in July of 2014.

Even with Laura. You would find it hard to believe that it was fairly decently sized storm not far from a Cat 5 at landfall in Louisiana 48-60 hrs before the remnants came right over the region. It somehow became scattered tropical downpours that affected the usual spots and missed the usual spots(aka your dust bowl, @BlizzardNole's yard and MBY... probably because its energy got strung out along the associated cold front. ... Hmmm... I'm starting to get good at being EJ. @Eskimo Joe You might be getting replaced.

It can be frustratingly hard to get decent tropical remnants up here as you probably know WAY too well. Over the years I've noticed how the weather pattern has done everything in its power to prevent us from seeing good remnants. If a tropical system is near the Florida/southeast US coast a trough will often be right there to curve it out to the NE to our southeast. If a tropical system is in the GOM the flow will often become configured in a way that will prevent it from moving NE towards us. Often it will stall out or meander slowly in the south and southeastern US or if it is on the move it will track WAY to our west. But I'm just rambling/venting and am almost definitely biased because of how much I weenie for extreme weather... and I'm no expert anyway. I know that it has been quite dry IYY lately. Hopefully you get a 3-foot deluge soon and then get thundersnow supercells w/ tornadoes all winter long.

Pwats are around 2.3-2.4". These are going to be some real gully-washers.

56/54 at IAD this morning.

667 WWUS20 KWNS 031938 SEL5 SPC WW 031938 DCZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-040200- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 485 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 340 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE MARYLAND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN VIRGINIA EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE GREATER WASHINGTON D.C. AREA AND SPREAD EAST AS A CLUSTER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MID-EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES AND SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF WILMINGTON DE TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PATUXENT RIVER MD. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

From the 1630z SPC: OTHERWISE, STORM-SCALE CLUSTERING AND THE DEGREE OF SHEAR MAY YIELD A COUPLE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH 45-65 KT GUSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND SWATHS TO THE COAST.

The NWSGBM Headquarters in Mount Holly call for 90mph wind gusts w/ isolated 100mph gusts possible in the Philly metro... which is very impressive considering the center is forecasted to move over the Blue Ridge west of even the DC metro by late in the afternoon. The impacts with this one are going to be truly historic and remembered for the rest of many peoples lives up and down the eastern seaboard.

I just got back from looking at some of the mesoscale guidance for tomorrow and thought: "Hmm... I bet @high risk made an appearance in the severe thread this morning." Now we patiently await the day that we are actually put under your namesake AND it verifies.

Meteorological Fall welcomes us.

GBM Hurricane Headquarters Hurricane Vicky Advisory #48 8am edt Mon Sep 28 2020 ...Wilmington NC currently in the western eyewall of Vicky... 34.3N, 77.5W Max Sustained Winds: 195mph, Gusts: 235mph Moving: N (350*) at 33 mph Min Surface Pressure: 885mb Eye: Closed, 40mi in diameter. Hurricane force winds extend out 150 nmi from the center, Tropical storm force winds extend out 470 nmi from the center.

Nice little low-topped cell in northern Loudoun county with some low-level rotation.

Those storms firing up in NW Pennsylvania look like good candidates for the main event here.

Did you also notice the Day 5 15% risk for us?

Thunder woke me up in Herndon.

Northern Illinois EarthCam chase anyone? SEL6 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 426 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Northern Illinois Far northwest Indiana Far southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1125 AM until 700 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 100 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...A derecho will rapidly progress across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois this afternoon. Widespread severe wind gusts, some of which should reach 80-100 mph are anticipated along the track of the bow. Brief tornadoes are also possible.

But how's your sleep though?...

Mesoscale Discussion 1373 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Areas affected...northern Virginia...eastern West Virginia...much of Maryland...and the District of Columbia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012000Z - 012200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Convection over eastern West Virginia will gradually spread eastward, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado. A WW may eventually be needed pending convective trends. DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has developed across portions of eastern West Virginia over the past hour or so, with one cell showing signs of broad/weak rotation aloft. The airmass supporting these storms has become moderately unstable, with 70s F dewpoints and 80s F surface temperatures resulting in 2000-2500 J/kg along and south of a warm front located from PIT to WAL. The cells are also in a weakly forced synoptic environment, with a mid-level trough located well west of the region. Nevertheless, weak inhibition and buoyancy in tandem with weak surface confluence has fostered initial development in eastern West Virginia. This regime should continue through the evening, with 30-40 knots of deep shear fostering organization. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with this activity, although a tornado cannot be ruled out given favored cellular storm mode and potential for updraft interactions with the aforementioned warm front. Convective trends are being monitored, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed especially if a greater concentration of convection can be achieved through nightfall. ..Cook/Bunting.. 08/01/2020

SLGT shifted ENE to the Potomac river. (1300z update)

Tropical tracking + Booze drinking ftw.

Weather tracking is currently giving me a "beginning of September" vibe rather than the beginning of August.

I know that I'm not the only one seeing this amaz- oh... yeah indeed I'm not.

Other than this I don't know too much about where to get more info.

The Os have a historic winning season coming up. 54-6.

Extremely decent storms for late January.