George BM

Let us be near the northern/northeastern periphery of the biblical heat and humidity with a 750-400mb WNW flow of at least 50-60+kts, MLCAPE of at least 5,000 J/kg, DCAPE AOA 1500 J/kg, and steep mid-level lapse rates. Then come August through October let us be near the west-end of a monster Bermuda High with an Ohio Valley trough stuck to our west so some fun spinny cloud masses will train up the eastern seaboard. Then it will REALLY be "Game On".

IAD is down to 33F so far.

Yeap. As of now Dulles has hit 50F so far today. http://iadasos.org/2hourpast.html

Random question @Mrs.J. Have you ever thought of or do you plan on opening your own restaurant?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimo/

Having a high within a few degrees of the record low max temperature for the day while still ahead of a cold front is not something you see very often.

Yeap. Here are some links to that event below: https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/snowmaps2/Great Atlantic coastal snowstorms.pdf https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/03/you-wont-believe-how-late-it-snowed-in-d-c-in-colonial-times/

Since record keeping began at DCA (I believe in 1941?) April 13th of 1957 is the latest date for measurable snow there when 0.1" accumulated. However before then, when snowfall was still actually recorded within DC, April 28th of 1898 saw 0.5" of snow (the latest measurable snow in recorded history). Now still before that, in the pre-record era, accumulating snow fell from Northern Virginia through the NE corridor on May 4, 1774 with 4 inches falling in Northern VA and even more falling in places northeast. This was recorded in diaries. However the latest date that DC has ever seen at least a trace of non-measurable snow was on May 10th of 1906.

Eh those are perfectly normal temps for the 9th. Looks like IAD got down to at least 39F this morning. Wait... it's May?.... and not February?! Nevermind. Your statement stands. There's actually a nonzero chance that you may see sprinkles/flurries up your way during the day Saturday.

Also Pivotal Weather. Though recently skew-t soundings went behind a paywall. But there is a lot more free Euro data on Pivotal than any other free ECMWF site that I personally know of.

What is the difference between a 30-min IPA, a 60-min IPA, a 90-min IPA and a 120-min IPA? Do they each have their own effects/taste?

It might be just a tad bit cool for Christmas, actually. But we'll see. We may still warm up a few degrees. 56F at IAD right now as well.

Peanut Butter/Chocolate Protein Bars.

That's what pulled my arm enough for me to make the post about Sundays potential.

For the past several days I've been low-key watching the Sunday system for any severe potential and as of right now late Sunday has slight potential to get interesting should we have enough CAPE (which currently looks modest to perhaps locally moderate with LI of -3 to -5). Deep layer flow looks fairly strong (on the order of 50+ kts in the mid-levels). Should we be able to get enough sunshine for more moderate CAPE it could get interesting for some. Timing does look to be leaning a bit on the later side ATM. Then there is also still the question of how far north this 'threat' will extend. #Notanexpertopinion #Justmy2cents

Social Beering ftw.

Uphill we go slowly but surely. A spongy start.

Not too shabby.

It's the wind that you were denied on April 13th. 60/57 at IAD with a SE wind of 5kts. Light Rain.

Guesstimation of the strength of the wind gusts?

Eggs, Green Leaves, Mushrooms, Meatballs (Pieces?), Cheese. How far off was I?

I just noticed that ECMWF soundings are now behind a paywall on PivotalWx. Wow, what a game changer! Currently the temperature is 50 degrees with light rain/drizzle at IAD.

Yeah that supercell looks nasty. The dbz reflectivity with it was into the upper 70s last hour!

While just about all ensembles have this trough staying over the eastern US for the remainder of the month into the beginning May I wonder if we can get into some W/NW flow action sometime early in May (2nd week?) as the trough slowly lifts and/or shifts eastward (as shown in a number of long range ens. ATM). Just speculation at this point of course... and me thinking out loud.

A pretty decent gust-front just went through Charles Town looking at the radar. What would you guesstimate the strength of the gusts to be?