George BM

Wallops Island launch in less than two minutes 5:39pm. ETA: Scrubbed.

PSA from Captain Obvious: Which of course makes sense because the sun angle is the same now as it is it during the first few days of November. Fin Currently the temperature is 49F under sunny skies. Dewpoint: 24F IAD

I definitely notice the weird distortion effect sometimes. I also sometimes dream that there is more than one "sun" in the sky creating several weird shadows everywhere. The main pattern, though, that I have with any weather related dreams is... generally really not too much different from weather weenie life in these parts. I'd dream about an incoming significant weather event (whether severe, blizzard, tropical... but I guess mostly severe), I'd become very excited about it and then I'd wake up... I really need to become a better lucid dreamer.

Was there any thunder with the snow? Also, what would you guesstimate the snowfall rates to be?

Those radar echo tops are over 6kft high.

Incoming.

This is only based off of what I personally have observed in these parts. So this is in absolutely no way expert analysis. I've noticed that the few times that we can actually do "well enough" and get close to maximizing our potential with low CAPE/high shear convective events is whenever we have a trough that tilts negative to our west with a strengthening surface low moving up the Appalachian Mountains. April 6, 2017 comes to mind. Also December 21, 2018 which probably no one remembers because the storms from this "event" only produced some brief 40-50+mph wind gusts and small hail from NVA into north/central MD and was more localized than this mornings event... but it was still at least something for late Dec and the wind profiles were weaker for that "event". This is assuming that CAD erodes quickly enough of course. I know... this is a very small sample size I'm sure there might be a few that I didn't mention. People on here who know more than me, what's your take?

@yodaI see that you're finally up.

Yeah. I'm not sure I completely trust myself to be "smart" if a tornado is bearing down on me. I'm guessing my "flight" would eventually overpower my "fight"... but probably not until 2x4s are raining down and shooting past me... that's if I'm still on the ground ... ... Yeah I'm a psycho.

@mappy Sorry I'm late... but I'm really pulling for your sister to make a full recover. I wish your sister and family good luck in this time.

Lol. Zancildae, you KNOW that there is an ENH/MDT risk day in our future this year that will not be as exciting as this morning was for some ANYWHERE in the region.

I did actually hear thunder in Herndon near the start of this hour.

In all seriousness though. We just got a MRGL for parts of the region for TOR and WIND in the 1300z update.

This is how we do severe in these parts.

There could be some strong gusts with them.

Mesoscale Discussion 0105 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0556 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2020 Areas affected...northern VA...District of Columbia...central MD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071156Z - 071300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Strong to localized severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with a narrow, low-topped convective band rapidly moving across northern VA and the greater D.C. area during the 12z-1330z period. DISCUSSION...KLWX radar imagery shows an intensifying band of low-topped convection with a few lightning flashes with the deeper convection exhibiting 20kft echo tops. Surface analysis shows a surface low immediately northwest of D.C. developing to the east-northeast. A narrow plume of weakly buoyant air, with surface temperatures in the upper 50s and dewpoints in the upper 50s, is located downstream of the convective band over northern/eastern VA into MD. Objective analysis indicates around 250 J/kg SBCAPE with 40 kt effective shear. Given the strong, deep forcing for ascent co-located with weak instability, it is possible a few strong to locally severe gusts may accompany the bowing portions of the convective band. The damaging-gust threat appears too confined in space/time to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Smith/Edwards.. 02/07/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 39047766 39257701 39187648 38647665 38297716 37927819 39047766

28.99" Hg at IAD.

Yeah we should drop below 29" of mercury briefly. 29.05" at IAD currently.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 930 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 DCZ001-MDZ003-011-013-014-016>018-503-504-506-VAZ052>055-057-505- 506-WVZ051>053-071030- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0006.200207T1400Z-200207T2000Z/ District of Columbia-Washington-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Dahlgren, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 930 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central, north central, northern and southern Maryland, central and northern Virginia and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 9 AM to 3 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$

Indeed. ... Congrats fellow weenies throughout this subforum. Sorry about getting the fringey finger out there @psuhoffman.

67/36 at IAD 2:45pm est.