George BM

All snow talk aside the 18z gfs verbatim would make for a fun Sunday next weekend for many. Quite the wind event. Of course, it's a model run for 8 days out so it won't go down exactly like that. (I know. Good job Sherlock Holmes. ) But it just shows that we are going to be in an active pattern for a bit.

Skies have been clear in VA allowing for radiational cooling while MD was under the clouds all night.

Yeap. I've definitely noticed this looking back at records since 1950. Fun fact: The three least snowy winters in DC: 1.) 1973 (T) 2.) 1998 (T) 3.) 2020 (0.6") were all warm enso years. IIRC even the Super La Nina of 1916-17 (ONI peaking around -2.3C) wasn't anywhere near as snowless as the winters you mentioned above.

Yes. That's indeed graupel. Water droplets have supercooled on the snowflake (rimming).

Meteorological Winter welcomes us.

1: You sure about this? 2: Yeah. We don’t even know what the extent of the consequences across the globe that will result from this. George BM: You called me… practically begged me to come here because you promised me that you would help me and the Mid-Atlantic weenies this winter. Are you chickening out now? 1: And suppose a climate disaster results from this?! What then?! George BM: Then at least the weather will finally be interesting for once. I’ve watched too many storms from the outside looking in over the past decades! Heat makes everything more interesting. Besides, don’t you all have the top-secret global cooling technology that you brought up earlier in case things get a bit too heated on the earth? 2: Can’t confirm or deny. Top-secret. George BM: Jebman: Alright! I’m ready up here when you all are! 1: And you’ve confirmed that there’s no one within 1,500 miles of our target zone? X: Affirmative! George BM: Go for it, Jebman. BREAKING: The 250-meter diameter meteor that struck early this morning along the equilateral Pacific is expected to cause extreme and dangerous weather patterns as a result of ‘Extremely high SST anomalies’ near the impact location. George BM: Great job, Jebman! Let us leave this base and go home and enjoy the show. Jebman: You all will get annihilated by extreme El Nino thundersnow blizzards to the point that you will beg for it to stop. ‘Oh please oh please oh please stop burying us!’ But it won’t stop. You will get buried alive singing ‘Sweet Home Alabama!’ until you see the light and get taken by it… into MORE El Nino blizzards! George BM: Yeah. I just hope that we didn’t make the world too warm. BTW, how did you learn how to fly… let alone stay alive in space? Jebman: When you’re a veteran weenie the weenies just flow through your vains. George BM: ……………………… Okie dokie. You and MillvilleWx should hangout and visit the DMV region when we get crushed. J Jebman: Do you think the Area 51 personnel will wipe our memory of us doing this? George BM: Nah. You’re too powerful for them.

Just had light graupel here in Herndon.

22F for the low at IAD.

I really appreciate your dedication though. You're a true weenie. Perhaps you can get us another December 19th HECS with a moderate event to top it off from Christmas Eve into Christmas Day? I know that that will make a certain emergency manager's Christmas. You still have nearly a full month to up your skills. Good luck!

Is the lightinthestorm guy not making a winter forecast this year? I haven't seen anything from him yet.

How many emails have you gotten so far?

Down to 24F at IAD. DCA... lol.

Four 27" HECSs this winter! I may have to up my snow totals.

Be well prepared and may we make it to the other side... Good luck my friend.

Just noticed your signature below: Winter 2009-10 Snow: 89.6" ; December 18-19 2009: 22.0", February 5-6, 2010: 32.0", February 9-10, 2010: 16.5" Three HECS one winter. Insanity.

Could you be talking about this link? http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Phasing_Storms.html

Yeap. The 12z GFS verbatim would actually be some big time wind Tuesday next week with 60-70kt winds at 1km with decent CCA.

...And not the kind of fringe he'd expect.

High/Low: 60F/40F on Christmas beats 30'sF cloudy/damp/rainy on Christmas. ... Low 40's here atm.

Great luck to you! You got this!

BWI: 52.6" DCA: 33.7" IAD: 56.1" RIC: 28.9" SBY: 27.7" ...You all know that one of these years will be my year.

Let the colder air commence.

Forecast Discussion November 24 2021 1:53PM EST A late November 1950-like storm is beginning to take shape as the strong ridge of high pressure that built up over western North America is forcing a deep trough with arctic air southwards from the Arctic and into the region this afternoon accompanied by a strong shortwave riding the polar jet stream. At the same time a healthy southern stream system is currently moving off the Carolina coastline. These two systems will phase with each other over the next 24 hours or so leading to explosive deepening of the coastal low during that time. In fact, most models have the low deepening from 1001mb as of 18z (1pm local time) to near 950mb by 18z tomorrow when the low will be centered over the Delmarva peninsula. This will be a high to extreme impact event for the entire region. Through tonight: Snow showers will start to develop over the towards dusk as an increasing S/SErly flow aloft brings in moisture over the colder airmass. Temperatures will fall through the 30’s and into the 20’s by 00z. As the night wears on, snow and wind will increase in intensity as temps fall into the teens. A Blizzard Warning will go into effect at 8z when winds will start to frequently gust over 35mph with snowfall rates surpassing 2”/hr leading to visibility dropping to below a quarter mile. Thanksgiving Day and night: This will be a very memorable day weather-wise. Temperatures will stay in the lower 10’s along and west of I-95, perhaps even dropping into the upper single digits towards the 1-81 corridor leading to wind chills near 10 to 15 below zero. There will be a sharp temperature gradient probably greatest over the Chesapeake Bay with temps along the western shore not getting above the lower 20’s while temps over the Delmarva get well up into the 40’s to perhaps the lower 50’s with precip becoming all rain in that region during the day. For the rest of the region, however, extremely heavy snowfall and damaging winds will be the main story. With the warmer than normal western Atlantic waters and the very impressive dynamics of the storm, liquid equivalent rates may get as high as 0.5-0.75”/hr. With strong lift through the DGZ layer (~ -12 to -18C) snow to liquid equivalent ratios will be in the 15-20 to 1 range. As a result, snowfall rates may exceed 10”/hr in the heaviest snow bands. At the same time winds will gust over 70mph during the day with 100-120+kt low-level winds in place around the western side of the low. Once the low starts to pull away from the region during the overnight hours 5 to 8 feet of snow should be commonplace with 15+ft drifts.

Yeah. I'll go for the p02 with a side of p27 please.

Ignoring the temperatures today the off and on downpours with the strong breeze actually made it look tropical at times earlier. Certainly no Hurricane Hazel but... something.