George BM

I gots you bro! -PNA, +AO, +NAO, +EPO from late Nov through late March. There will be no measurable snow at any of the 3 major local airports through meteorological winter. We will get some slushy events in April and even a few wet flakes mixed in with rain into May. Severe season will be a total dud followed by a dull hurricane season with a developing super El Nino. The following winter with said super Nino in place will be warm and wet with flooding rains and a couple severe weather events. But after all that... Winter of 2023-24 looks epic with a mod modoki Nino. A late season blizzard will, however, prevent us from being able to travel to see the April 8, 2024 solar eclipse.

It, obviously, won't happen but the latest 18z gfs run is one of those runs that you'd wish would run another 48 hours in order to see what weenie fantasy solution it would spit out.

Anyone seeing any patchy frost this morning?

Looks like 39 is the magic number so far. 39F for the low at IAD.

Did you mean 'below'? I bring this to your attention because I know that you keep these records and that you'd probably HATE to have errors in them.

You're going to love January 7th, 2022. Is it? Correct.

IAD down to 48F so far.

Forecast Discussion October 10, 2021 2:53 PM EDT Our attention will turn to the increasingly dangerous Hurricane Wanda. As Wanda has just made landfall as a powerful category 5 hurricane near the Big Bend region of Florida, it can only weaken so much in the 18-24 hours it will take for the circulation to plow into our region. NHC forecasts Wanda to become an extratropical cyclone as it comes through our region. However, with 850mb winds as high as 120kts and 925mb winds as high as 100kts sustained tropical storm-force winds and hurricane force wind gusts (75-90mph) can be expected across the region, particularly along and east of Blue Ridge where the right front quadrant of the storm will pass. As a result, a Hurricane Warning is in effect for all areas except eastern WV and the far western panhandle of Maryland where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Areas back towards I-81 will have the highest chance of significant to extreme flash flooding where tropical moisture will interact with the strong cold front approaching from the west allowing heavy rainbands to set up along and west of the low-pressure track. Rainfall amounts of 5-10” with localized amounts of up to 15” can be expected in this region. To the east of the Blue Ridge rainfall amounts of 2-5” w/ localized amounts of up to 7” will be more commonplace. Tonight: Showers and heavy downpours will increase in coverage as the night wears on. With some limited instability (SBCAPE: 400-800 J/kg) and decent low-level shear (Effective SRH: 150-300 m2/s2) a few supercells may also form with the threat of a brief tornado or two. Temperatures will only fall into the mid-70s with the tropical airmass in place with increasing SE winds. Monday: By dawn bands of heavy rain w/ embedded supercells will start moving through the region in earnest w/ SE winds gusting to around 40mph or so. By the late morning hours when the strongest low-level winds move overhead (100+kts around 1km above the surface) winds could gust as high as 90mph potentially causing extensive structural damage. Simultaneously, bands of heavy rain will be setting up over the mountains and I-81 corridor with 1-3”+/hr rainfall rates commonplace. By this time, the low-pressure center will be moving very quickly owing to the strong s/w trough moving in from the west so the strongest winds and heaviest rains will only last during a brief 3-6 hour period. While low-level shear will be extremely strong limited instability owing to the saturated atmosphere will make the tornado threat marginal at best. Torrential rain and flash flooding will be the main threat with any convection given the 2.5"+ Pwats. By the mid-late afternoon hours the center of Wanda will be well to the north/northeast in NE PA with the strong front blasting through. This will bring a quick end to any remaining showers. Winds will still be gusting in the 40 to 50mph range out of the northwest behind the front as temperatures fall from the upper 70s and into the upper 50s by dusk. Beyond: From Tuesday onwards through the foreseeable future (at least the next week) a significantly chillier airmass will be in place with dailt highs struggling to get out of the 50s and morning lows in the 30s being commonplace in the greater metropolitan area. The NW suburbs and the mountains may get down into the upper 20s. Frost and freeze headlines will be needed for much of the region for Wednesday morning.

The final quarter of the new year starts off relatively cool and benign.

@yoda Very great and happy I hope your birthday has been.

IAD down to 45F.

Yeap. That's indeed the doing of the bolt heard around the area.

I KNOW that you just heard that rumble of thunder.

One of these years...

DCA: 11/16 IAD: 10/23 BWI: 11/07 RIC: 11/07 3.53"

I was just thinking somewhat similar thoughts, at least with respect to some severe wind potential (Not that I'm a red tagger or anything like that). Also, the near -15C 500mb temps w/ the steep MLLRs you just mentioned would suggest a severe hail risk as well when combined with moderate CAPE (LI -5 to -7).

DCA: 11/16 IAD: 10/23 BWI: 11/07 RIC: 11/07

Sure is dark out for 8:21:17 am even accounting for later sunrise times.

It will be along the equator in the eastern Pacific because at 3:21pm edt/ 12:21pm pdt the sun will be west of South America and southeast of Hawaii.

Did you notice any damage during your long walk post-storm late on Thursday?

13-9-5 is his peak season S/H/MH predictions (August 20th- October 20th). The numbers 7-3-2 in () to the right are the number of S/H/MHs so far during the August 20th to October 20th period.

MLLRs are just a WEE bit on the steep side this morning. Now if it were two months earlier with a stronger sun-angle resulting in steeper LLLRs w/ sufficient lower-level moisture and there was a thunderstorm complex dropping southeast into the region, especially during a favorable time of day, then.....

Yeap. It shows the first digital <=540 dm 1000-500mb thickness values over the region since spring. #Soon

Is it meteorological or climatological? It's here... Fall... we'll get a taste post-Ida.