George BM

Down to 24F at IAD. DCA... lol.

Four 27" HECSs this winter! I may have to up my snow totals.

Be well prepared and may we make it to the other side... Good luck my friend.

Just noticed your signature below: Winter 2009-10 Snow: 89.6" ; December 18-19 2009: 22.0", February 5-6, 2010: 32.0", February 9-10, 2010: 16.5" Three HECS one winter. Insanity.

Could you be talking about this link? http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Phasing_Storms.html

Yeap. The 12z GFS verbatim would actually be some big time wind Tuesday next week with 60-70kt winds at 1km with decent CCA.

...And not the kind of fringe he'd expect.

High/Low: 60F/40F on Christmas beats 30'sF cloudy/damp/rainy on Christmas. ... Low 40's here atm.

Great luck to you! You got this!

BWI: 52.6" DCA: 33.7" IAD: 56.1" RIC: 28.9" SBY: 27.7" ...You all know that one of these years will be my year.

Let the colder air commence.

Forecast Discussion November 24 2021 1:53PM EST A late November 1950-like storm is beginning to take shape as the strong ridge of high pressure that built up over western North America is forcing a deep trough with arctic air southwards from the Arctic and into the region this afternoon accompanied by a strong shortwave riding the polar jet stream. At the same time a healthy southern stream system is currently moving off the Carolina coastline. These two systems will phase with each other over the next 24 hours or so leading to explosive deepening of the coastal low during that time. In fact, most models have the low deepening from 1001mb as of 18z (1pm local time) to near 950mb by 18z tomorrow when the low will be centered over the Delmarva peninsula. This will be a high to extreme impact event for the entire region. Through tonight: Snow showers will start to develop over the towards dusk as an increasing S/SErly flow aloft brings in moisture over the colder airmass. Temperatures will fall through the 30’s and into the 20’s by 00z. As the night wears on, snow and wind will increase in intensity as temps fall into the teens. A Blizzard Warning will go into effect at 8z when winds will start to frequently gust over 35mph with snowfall rates surpassing 2”/hr leading to visibility dropping to below a quarter mile. Thanksgiving Day and night: This will be a very memorable day weather-wise. Temperatures will stay in the lower 10’s along and west of I-95, perhaps even dropping into the upper single digits towards the 1-81 corridor leading to wind chills near 10 to 15 below zero. There will be a sharp temperature gradient probably greatest over the Chesapeake Bay with temps along the western shore not getting above the lower 20’s while temps over the Delmarva get well up into the 40’s to perhaps the lower 50’s with precip becoming all rain in that region during the day. For the rest of the region, however, extremely heavy snowfall and damaging winds will be the main story. With the warmer than normal western Atlantic waters and the very impressive dynamics of the storm, liquid equivalent rates may get as high as 0.5-0.75”/hr. With strong lift through the DGZ layer (~ -12 to -18C) snow to liquid equivalent ratios will be in the 15-20 to 1 range. As a result, snowfall rates may exceed 10”/hr in the heaviest snow bands. At the same time winds will gust over 70mph during the day with 100-120+kt low-level winds in place around the western side of the low. Once the low starts to pull away from the region during the overnight hours 5 to 8 feet of snow should be commonplace with 15+ft drifts.

Yeah. I'll go for the p02 with a side of p27 please.

Ignoring the temperatures today the off and on downpours with the strong breeze actually made it look tropical at times earlier. Certainly no Hurricane Hazel but... something.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 207 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-290215- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0003.211029T1400Z-211029T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Silver Spring, Chantilly, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Falls Church, Bethesda, Severn, Centreville, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Ellicott City, Reston, Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Woodbridge, Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia 207 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flood Watch for portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park. * From Friday morning through Friday afternoon. * Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are most likely with isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible. * Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for flooding in urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ BJL

We're also reaching the time of year where the plants, trees, grass, etc. are no longer drinking the rain water like they were during the summer. So it wouldn't take as much rain in a given amount of time to lead to flooding. I guess the lower sun angle leading to less evaporation also adds to this to an extent.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 550 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ053-054-260600- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0019.211025T2200Z-211026T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Silver Spring, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Annapolis, Chantilly, Odenton, Falls Church, Bethesda, Severn, Centreville, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Suitland-Silver Hill, Laurel, Ellicott City, Reston, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia 550 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria and Fairfax. * Until 2 AM EDT Tuesday. * Showers and thunderstorms are expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain through this evening, with localized amounts of up to 4 inches possible. Heavy rain in a short amount of time may result in rapid rises of water on small creeks and streams and in urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ DHOF

Looks like IAD just gusted to 49kts (56mph).

Noice.

I gots you bro! -PNA, +AO, +NAO, +EPO from late Nov through late March. There will be no measurable snow at any of the 3 major local airports through meteorological winter. We will get some slushy events in April and even a few wet flakes mixed in with rain into May. Severe season will be a total dud followed by a dull hurricane season with a developing super El Nino. The following winter with said super Nino in place will be warm and wet with flooding rains and a couple severe weather events. But after all that... Winter of 2023-24 looks epic with a mod modoki Nino. A late season blizzard will, however, prevent us from being able to travel to see the April 8, 2024 solar eclipse.

It, obviously, won't happen but the latest 18z gfs run is one of those runs that you'd wish would run another 48 hours in order to see what weenie fantasy solution it would spit out.

Anyone seeing any patchy frost this morning?

Looks like 39 is the magic number so far. 39F for the low at IAD.

Did you mean 'below'? I bring this to your attention because I know that you keep these records and that you'd probably HATE to have errors in them.

You're going to love January 7th, 2022. Is it? Correct.