George BM

Starting off cool and breezy w/ damp soil.

Forecast Discussion Tuesday, June 20, 2023 10:58AM EDT Flash Flood Watch in effect for the greater Washington/Baltimore Metro area until 5am EDT Wednesday, June 21, 2023. Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the greater Washington/Baltimore Metro area until further notice. Discussion: Heavy rains will continue to overspread the region as the center of Tropical storm Bret moves up the Chesapeake Bay. Interaction with a shortwave trough to the west over the Ohio Valley will help enhance lift and, therefore, the rainfall in the area extending roughly 50-100mi west of the center. This, of course, will put these enhanced tropical rainbands over The DC metro and the western half of the Baltimore metro. With Pwats of around 2.5”, high freezing levels (~15-16kft) and strong forcing from the trough to the west a large 50+ mile wide band of 2-3”+/hr rainfall rates w/ even higher rates in embedded bands. This will allow much of the area between I-81 and the Chesapeake Bay to receive upwards of 12-18”+ of rain w/ local amounts eclipsing 2' possible. This will lead to catastrophic flooding not only in flood prone areas but also flooding in many areas that don’t normally flood or have NEVER flooded before. The heaviest rainfall rates will occur over the region between midday and 8pm this evening. Another factor from Bret will be strong NE, northerly, then NW winds. The highest winds will occur between 2pm this afternoon and 9pm this evening when winds could gust 40 to 60mph. This may lead to scattered to numerous power outages from fallen trees especially when considering how wet it’s already been since the end of April. … Bottom line is that this is the beginning of a very high impact event for the region. Impacts from this will be felt for many weeks or even months. Forecaster Wannabe: George BM

Torrential rain w/ 25+ mph gusts when it came through here in Herndon. A few lightning strikes.

Nearly 2"/hr... wait... wrong precip-type.

1.00" at IAD.

0.88" so far at IAD. Getting breezier with a 27kt gust there.

April 6, 2017. February 7, 2020. Not that I believe it will be like those events but those are two examples of what you mentioned. Deep-low, neg-tilt trough...

Wow 89F?! The storms are going to go BALLISTIC over you.

This seems like a less severe version of April 6, 2017 when there were 7 EF0s and widespread 50+mph gusts... at least in Virginia.

When the line moved through Herndon earlier... Brief gusts peaking at 35+mph followed by brief (1-2min)torrential rain/pea-sized hail w/ gusty breezes. Sporadic to occasional lightning.

@Maestrobjwa When you type in "@poster" a list of posters with the first letter or few letters of the name you're typing out should appear below the curser. This list will diminish as you continue typing out the name until you are left only with the poster that you want. Though you can click on their name before fully typing it out if you see it in the list.

IAD with a gust to 45kts(52mph).

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the region now. NOAA weather radio.

IAD has tied today's record high of 88F so far.

Update:

That slight milky looking haze that's especially visible in the western sky right now where the sun is... that you've probably absentmindedly assumed are thin high clouds ... could this haze be from the recently erupted volcano in Russia?

Helicopter leaf showers.

0.02" for a weekend total at IAD.

Wishing you the very best of luck on your interview!

The temperature hit 93F at IAD that day. The earliest 90F day there.

Leaf-out progress in my neighborhood appears to be where it was at the end of April/beginning of May 2020.

IAD tying the record of 87F so far.

Yeah. IAD with a causal 31F jump to 78F in 3 1/2 hours.

Don't roll your eyes at me TOO hard mattie g. Preserve your sight.

Wow. IAD was at 47F. Cold spots are going to experience quite the temperature leap this morning. Could potentially be a 40+F spread at IAD today.