George BM

IAD currently at 80/77. Wearing the air.

IAD gusted up to 74mph from that same storm as well. (June 14, 1989) So it must have been a monster of a storm by this areas standards for a while as it tracked east.

At ~3,300ft.

Happy Birthday!... Unless you just got bored and decided to post that you got older today as you do everyday. Which is true. Well you've had at least two prior birthdays since joining so... Happy Birthday either way! Since I've probably missed some in the past few years.

Radar estimates of ~1.5" here (Herndon, VA). IAD with 2.32" so as of 6:52am. I was near the northwest edge of the blob.

A trace here so far... and that was early yesterday morning around 6:05am.

A Flood Watch? @BlizzardNole Oof... and with that, there goes any small chance you had of getting good rain. Better get watering!

I'm watching the activity associated with the MCV over southern PA, far northern MD and into the panhandle of WV. Watching to see how they do with limited sunshine approaching from the west on satellite. At the high-end they could potentially become a less severe version of July 29, 2021 last year which had a similar situation with an MCV sparking off supercells with a particularly intense one going through the Fredericksburg area then. There's, of course, also the chance that they just fizzle out.

Your area sure has cashed in a lot within the past year or so.

Happy Birthday Mr. Skeleton! How DO you keep yourself from being blown away when chasing them hurricanes?

Not that it means much but the funny thing (to me at least) is that the usually 'CAPE-happy' 3kmNAM is anemic with instability through the early/mid afternoon while the usually 'Eeyore-instability' HRRR has fairly decent CAPE during that same time period.

SPC has us in the SLGT for Day 3 (Tuesday). Timing looks better for any potential NW flow cluster than what we usually experience with these regimes. We'll see how it shapes out and how far NE into the region the good CAPE gets.

I definitely like the very steep lapse rates from ~650mb to the surface being advertised on CAMs such as the HRRR for this afternoon. DCAPE looks fairly decent as well. Could see a strong downburst in a spot or two later.

Reaper Dude: Yeah dude! Wet microbursts are the bomb! The sheets of blinding rain. The high winds. It’s just like tropical. George BM: 4,000 J/kg MLCAPE, 2.25”+ PWs and 1,000-1,500 J/kg DCAPE along with modest but decent enough deep-layer flow looks very promising for cold pool generation. Maybe we can score a severe MCS with embedded microbursts/macrobursts. Every one of us crazies win! Reaper Dude: Great for softening the dirt as well for whenever I get the call. George BM: Why DID you stop doing it lately? Reaper Dude: Life. Taxes. Responsibility. Yiddy yaddy yoody yadda!

Happy hottest month of the year!

I think you should be fine. There is indeed a slight chance of widely scattered showers and/or storms tomorrow afternoon but, at least to me, it appears that any storm activity is more likely the further north and west you are in the DC area though there's a non-zero chance everywhere in the region. I personally wouldn't change plans at the moment. Also congratulations!

This moment ten years ago I was standing outside with a strange sustained west wind picking up in strength immediately ahead of the gust front with a growing roar approaching from the west. - Herndon, VA.

Causally looking at Saturday and the early/mid week timeframe next week for local severe chances.

Hey! I've been rooting for you and everyone that's missed out on our big weather events to get to see something special in return. At least you finally got that microburst last August as kind of a make-up. As for me I'd rather not talk about how that end of July to mid-August pulse severe period last summer here in Herndon.

26

@mappy I hope today has been a great birthday for you.

The Atlantic looks very unJune-like with all of the convection and AOIs in multiple locations (two in the MDR). The only sign that it's still very early in the season is the fact that all of the convection in the MDR is at or below 10N in latitude owing to the ITCZ still being well south of 10N.

@NorthArlington101 I remember waking up early that morning as the first cluster of storms raced southeastwards across the NE MD, NJ, Philly region. The temperature raced up into the upper 90s w/ dewpts into the 70s by late in the 10am hour. It was the hottest that I could recall feeling outside at that time of the day. In fact that whole day in general was probably the hottest I'd experienced in my life even through today (6/24/2022). By midday the storms that I'd been watching thorough the morning were closing in on Chicago with the line of storms slowly starting to become oriented more perpendicular to the flow (from W-E to more NNW-SSE). Being someone who's always hoping for a big storm I watched them hoping that they would be able to survive the trek over Lake Michigan and start taking advantage of the unusually hot/humid airmass in their path. Once they hit Fort Wayne, IN with a 91mph wind gust and a STWarning was issued w/ storm motion of 80mph I knew that the storms were officially tapping into the highly unstable airmass. My only gripe was that based on the speed and trajectory of the storms they would reach my house in Herndon, VA after sunset. But I still watched them with anticipation as they cruised through Ohio and sprinted into West Virginia. By 6:40pm that evening we were placed under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch only making my anticipation grow. Okay enough rambling let's get to the storm... By 10pm that evening I was listening to WTOP radio talking about a 61mph wind gust in Winchester, VA from the storms. I was outside looking at the occasional lighting in the western sky. Nothing too crazy though. By then a STWarning for quarter size hail and 80mph wind gusts was in place for my area. One interesting aspect of this storm that I remember was that roughly two minutes before the gust front hit an unusually steady westerly wind (no gusts just wind) started to slowly increase until it hit maybe 25mph. During that roughly two-minute period I listened to the familiar crescendo of distance tree leaves rustling in an incoming gust front. Obviously, the gust front eventually hit and when it did the trees started moving in ways that I'd never seen them move before. They were bending like flexible dancers and my eyes were getting covered in dust. About ninety seconds to two minutes into the, probably, 50 to 60 mph wind gusts the power went out and I went inside. The winds remained very strong blowing sheets of rain across the road which I could, surprisingly, see especially when the lightning flashed. Now about the lightning. Remember when I said earlier that it was nothing too crazy in the western sky prior to the storm hitting? Well during the storm the lightning flash frequency increased until it was almost a strobe. Despite that though, and this is another weird aspect that I noticed about the storms, there was only one really audible crack of thunder that occurred two seconds after a flash of lightning. I also remember experiencing a rear-inflow jet for the first time as the winds remained elevated for several minutes after the heavy rain ended with 30 to 40 mph northwesterly gusts common. The next morning the first thing that I noticed was how refreshing it felt despite the forecasted temperatures and humidity being identical to the previous day. I walked around the neighborhood and found two trees that had been toppled over and one tree that was spilt down the middle. Though overall, my area got off easy compared to a lot of other neighborhoods around the DMV. I even got power back by 10:30am that morning while some spots were without power for one to even as much as two weeks. I consider it the strongest thunderstorm that I've personally experienced in my lifetime.

Warrenton especially the west side is getting raked. Lots of 90+mph pixels on the west side of town.