George BM

This was my jam in 2018.

At first glance on TT the Cansips have peak SST anomalies even warmer for Nov/Dec generally between 125-140W. Peak SSTAs are a little further east compared to last month but still pretty far west.

This moment 23 years ago was exciting. Here's to another day like that soon.

It's time for the increasingly annual tradition! Happy Peak Season everybody!

Looking at satellite loops of the tropical Atlantic it looks like June 6th convection-wise not September 6th.

Beat me by 0.08".

Welcome to Meteorological Fall! It will feel like it eventually. I promise.

Monday, September 7, 2026 8:25AM EDT The past week has been one of the most active weeks of stormy weather in the region for a very long time with multiple MCSs and derechos causing repeated instances of widespread tree damage and even some structural damage with the northwest flow around the ridge of high pressure that has been parked to our west-southwest. During the September 1st through September 6th period much of the region has received 8 to 14 inches of rain with most areas seeing peak wind gusts from severe thunderstorms during this period in the 70 to 85 mph range. Now we watch as a deepening trough drops into the region with causing the flow locally to back to southerly. With a surface low developing nearby over the region in response to this trough southeasterly surface flow will bring in mid 70sF dewpoints into the region. With Pwats also rising above 2.25 inches and CAPE in excess of 1,000 J/kg along with tall skinnier CAPE profiles. Storms that develop will be very efficient rain producers. With the strongest forcing for accent located over the region numerous storms will be able to develop and train over the same areas leading to a significant flash flooding threat given all of the recent rain. Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms will train over the region from late morning through this evening before we see a more uniform area of heavy rain over the region through the night tonight as the surface low strengthens and moves to the east over the northern Chesapeake. There will be a risk for a few tornadoes through the afternoon with embedded supercells given decent low-level shear near the surface low (effective SRH of up to 300 m2/s2) and decent enough 0-3km CAPE (>100 J/kg). When all is set and done by tomorrow morning most areas would have received an additional 3 to 6 inches of rain with localized areas that get under training bands in excess of 10 inches leading to major flooding. Always remember to turn around don’t drown. It’s not worth it! ...

Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly being initiated at 11 o'clock ante meridiem.

Great write up, @WxWatcher007!... No. I haven't read the whole thing yet. I just know it's great.

https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/hilla/csu_mlp/csu_severe.php

Correct.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch out until 9pm.

This! Getting a moderate shower with barely any evidence of it on radar. That's how you know the low-levels are juiced.

Last month of meteorological summer! Home stretch!