George BM

Already down to 17F w/a -6F dewpoint and 1F windchill at IAD. It be COLD.

Went to an event in Tysons Corner tonight and a lot of people there were talking about how we are about to see over 2 feet of snow or 23 inches based on what their phone apps showed them.

Fairly heavy snow now with the grass turning white.

Sudden burst of moderate+ snow here in Herndon, VA over the last 10-12 minutes.

I appreciate all of you people for putting up with all of my weenie posts. There's a unique that each and every one of you brings in here that keeps me coming back after more than nine years.

11/30/2025: T (A mix of rain/sleet from the 4am hour through about 9am. Intensity got up to light/moderate intensity at times. Temps: low/mid 30s 12/02/2025: T (Probably had a brief period of sleet w/ rain sometime between 4:30am and 5am when precip started before quickly changing to a cold rain that became moderate at times during the morning.) 12/05-06/2025: 1.4" (Flurries/very light snow starting in the 4am hour intensifying to light snow between 6am and 10am (light/moderate at times). Flurries to very light snow showers continuing through the rest of the morning ending during the 12pm hour. ETA: Another few bursts of sometimes moderate snow with big aggregates between 10:30pm and around midnight or so dropping an additional 0.2".) 12/11/2025: T (A few flakes in the air during the morning on a northwesterly surface wind.) 12/14/2025: 0.9" (Mixed rain/snow starting after midnight on the 14th, changing over to snow sometime during the 3am hour and lasting through about 6:30am. Snow was moderate at times between 4am and 5:45am. It was graupelly in consistency.) 12/26/2025: T (A mix of light rain/sleet between 10:30am and 12pm. It was briefly freezing rain/sleet as temps fell to 31F during the precip.) 1/01/2026: 0.1" (A squall of heavy snow blew through between 5:18am and 5:35am with visibilities dropping to <= 1/4 mile briefly between 5:21am and 5:25am. Note: could have been 0.2" but the wind 25-30mph gusts made it difficult to tell.) 1/11/2026: T (A few wet flakes with a dying snow/graupel squall around 1:30-1:45pm.) Snow totals as of January 14th, 2026: 2.4"

Feel like I just posted last years version of this the other day. Anyways, getting right into it, what weather event(s) made an impression on you during the last year? For me. 1.) The June 19, 2025 severe thunderstorm event (ENH risk day).I got 50+ mph wind gusts with sheets of rain through my neighborhood that afternoon when a fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms blew through the region. 2.) Just days later there was another strong, though more localized, thunderstorm that developed overhead and was nearly stationary dropping over 2" of rain and bring another brief period of 50+ mph wind gusts. 3.) Probably the snow events we had early in the year.

11/30/2025: T (A mix of rain/sleet from the 4am hour through about 9am. Intensity got up to light/moderate intensity at times. Temps: low/mid 30s 12/02/2025: T (Probably had a brief period of sleet w/ rain sometime between 4:30am and 5am when precip started before quickly changing to a cold rain that became moderate at times during the morning.) 12/05-06/2025: 1.4" (Flurries/very light snow starting in the 4am hour intensifying to light snow between 6am and 10am (light/moderate at times). Flurries to very light snow showers continuing through the rest of the morning ending during the 12pm hour. ETA: Another few bursts of sometimes moderate snow with big aggregates between 10:30pm and around midnight or so dropping an additional 0.2".) 12/11/2025: T (A few flakes in the air during the morning on a northwesterly surface wind.) 12/14/2025: 0.9" (Mixed rain/snow starting after midnight on the 14th, changing over to snow sometime during the 3am hour and lasting through about 6:30am. Snow was moderate at times between 4am and 5:45am. It was graupelly in consistency.) 12/26/2025: T (A mix of light rain/sleet between 10:30am and 12pm. It was briefly freezing rain/sleet as temps fell to 31F during the precip.) 1/01/2026: 0.1" (A squall of heavy snow blew through between 5:18am and 5:35am with visibilities dropping to <= 1/4 mile briefly between 5:21am and 5:25am. Note: could have been 0.2" but the wind 25-30mph gusts made it difficult to tell.) Snow totals as of January 4th, 2026: 2.4"

Sunday, January 18, 2026 8:58AM EST Shallow layer of very cold air will continue to undercut the warm/moist environment overhead. As temperatures fall into the lower 20s as we go through the morning, showers and thunderstorms will begin to overspread the region owing to an approaching shortwave with decent elevated CAPE (MUCAPE 250-500+ J/kg). As this elevated convection overspreads the region torrential rain falling into the lower 20s surface temps will efficiently freeze on all untreated surfaces allowing for significant icing. Freezing showers and thunderstorms will continue into the afternoon. Precip will change over from freezing rain to sleet from NNW to SSE as the sub-freezing layer becomes deeper allowing for upwards of 2 to 4 inches of sleet on top of the significant ½” to 1” of ice accretion. The ice accretion itself will lead to widespread power outages. Temps will fall into the teens as we go through the afternoon and into the evening. There will be a lull in the precip by the mid evening hours as the first shortwave moves to the ENE. But the next one will be right on its heels. The second and more life-threatening shortwave will approach the region by the early morning hours of Monday. Precip will overspread the region from SW to NE between 4am and 8am starting off as snow briefly along and north of I-66 and Route 50 before changing over to sleet as we go through the morning hours. Once again, elevated instability will be plentiful owing to unusually warm and humid air over the SE US overrunning the very cold lower-levels of the atmosphere here w/ MUCAPE upwards of 500+ J/kg again. As we reach the early afternoon hours showers and thunderstorms will really start training over the same areas, generally the Greater DC and Baltimore metros. Surface temps will rise into the 19-23F range. But with very warm air just of the surface, precip will change over into freezing rain. This is when the truly historic destruction may occur with ice accretion rates in excess of ¼ to ½” per hour over the course of the afternoon into the evening. By nightfall, many areas may have received an additional 1.5” to 3” of ice accretion leading to universal power outages and tree damage with many structures also experiencing significant damage. Precip will exit the region by midnight with skies remaining overcast as we go towards dawn on Tuesday. This will be a historic and life-threatening event that will affect many aspects of life locally over the next several days or few weeks.

Happy New Year to all of you weather weenie folk in here. Looks to start wintery in feeling and perhaps sight in some areas.

IAD got down to 13F.

11/30/2025: T (A mix of rain/sleet from the 4am hour through about 9am. Intensity got up to light/moderate intensity at times. Temps: low/mid 30s 12/02/2025: T (Probably had a brief period of sleet w/ rain sometime between 4:30am and 5am when precip started before quickly changing to a cold rain that became moderate at times during the morning.) 12/05-06/2025: 1.4" (Flurries/very light snow starting in the 4am hour intensifying to light snow between 6am and 10am (light/moderate at times). Flurries to very light snow showers continuing through the rest of the morning ending during the 12pm hour. ETA: Another few bursts of sometimes moderate snow with big aggregates between 10:30pm and around midnight or so dropping an additional 0.2".) Snow totals as of December 6th, 2025: 1.4"

Just measured an additional 0.2" from this activity. (Herndon, VA)

11/30/2025: T (A mix of rain/sleet from the 4am hour through about 9am. Intensity got up to light/moderate intensity at times. Temps: low/mid 30s 12/02/2025: T (Probably had a brief period of sleet w/ rain sometime between 4:30am and 5am when precip started before quickly changing to a cold rain that became moderate at times during the morning.) 12/05/2025: 1.2" (Flurries/very light snow starting in the 4am hour intensifying to light snow between 6am and 10am (light/moderate at times). Flurries to very light snow showers continuing through the rest of the morning ending during the 12pm hour.) Snow totals as of December 5th, 2025: 1.2"