etudiant

Is that not like betting on black after red has come up for the last ten throws, because 'it's bound to change'?

Meanwhile, the rain we had hoped for here in NYC for this weekend has evaporated. Guess the models did not close. Very disappointing, we are headed towards drought conditions, with no relief in prospect based on the models.

The issue to me is that it explicitly says local forecasts at the basin wide level are inadequate, that a global perspective is needed. That makes the problem very much more difficult. Does anyone have a respectable global model?

Is the wildfire impact enough to off set the reductions in smoke from the various anti pollution initiatives? It would help to get some real world data as to the reductions, measured at various particulate sizes, in atmospheric pollution. Without some baselines, it is difficult to generate a robust thesis.

Also, the May normals used are from the more recent 30 years, so elevated from the earlier averages. May seemed warm and dry here in NYC, certainly more pleasant weather than in most recent Mays.

Have to say that this is disappointing. It recognizes the warmth in the Atlantic and then says it does not count because the Pacific is having an unusual El nino. Basically says only global models have value, basin wide analysis is inadequate. Guess I'm not cut out to be a meteorologist, I've no grasp of global models..

What on earth is burning in Nova Scotia? I have this 'Anne of Green Gables' image of a mostly rural farming oriented province, does not seem a promising site for massive wildfires.

This is quite wonderful, a discussion of the various factors that indicate an El Nino developing, done in real time, by experts who are trying to forecast the future based on all available public sources. It's especially relevant because there is as yet no consensus as to the details, which is what most of us pay attention to. The possible impact on the Atlantic hurricane season is a separate topic, which however will surely gather increasing attention.

Just awful, but surely not the heater's fault if the electric wiring it is plugged into goes up in flames. As an airplane designer once said: It is really hard to make something fool proof because we keep getting better fools.

Surely an electric heater would have served you better. Recommend the oil core heaters, gentle heat, no fire risk, keeps the room cozy without heating the whole house.

Is +1.4-1.8 really a Super El Nino? Or is there an accepted measure for the overall excess heat content of the tropical Pacific ocean? We do seem to be migrating towards a warm belt across the tropical Pacific, so less pressure differentials. Are there any accessible models for this?

Interesting that Antarctic sea ice is building up much more slowly than usual, to the point that global sea ice extent is at record lows for the date. https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Aiui, the most comparable event to Sandy for NYC was the 1821 hurricane, so statistically we're ok this century.

Has to be just stunning burn area, we are at least 1000 miles away from the source of the smoke,

Thank you for posting this. We don't pay enough attention to these historical extremes of weather, so we get caught out when they happen again.

No need. Just wear a P100 mask, you'll at least breather easier. In these post Covid days, you'll simply appear prudent. No claims though that your eyes will be any less irritated.

They are also in a multi year dry spell so their reservoirs are seriously depleted. This is supposed to be their rainy season, so they face a difficult summer.

Why not, the interval was only 10 years '82 - '92. I see no reason why 8 years would not suffice, so help me understand please.

Why cooler? Hotter and more soggy seems equally likely?

How does that work given that he is on a pay for access site?

I remember a useful book 'How to lie with statistics', by Darrell Huff. I'm glad it is on the NY Central Park mandatory reading list.

Will await the results, but Bastardi did project exceptional weather for March a little while back. His forecast was held up to ridicule, perhaps prematurely?.

Thus far just very light snow in Manhattan, nothing sticking, too warm.

Is there any model which predicted the mild winter we are enjoying in NYC? What surprises me is that none of them appear to have adjusted to the reality of a really low snow environment. The Bastardi 'Hail Mary' March chill forecast is right in line with all the other models, just a bit more extreme in its focus on the model rather than what's actually happening. Qualitatively though they are all in the same boat, at least as far as I can tell. Maybe we need a new paradigm for modeling the seasonal forecasts.

I started following him because of Sandy, which he evaluated correctly, plus he held on to his stance despite extensive criticism. Don't follow him any longer, $270/yr is too rich for my blood, but I respect his insights. The concern is, as Don noted above, that his approach may be misleading him in the warming climate we are seeing.