DownpourDave

That's a little complicated to be certain. Granted, speculation here; but two points: 1) It would not have needed a full day at the rate the pressure fall it was experiencing into landfall to have become a more intense. Between 4:30AM and 10:30AM CDT recon missions recorded a pressure drop from 937 mb to 923 mb. The last pass recorded 919 mb at 12:30PM CDT. A mere six more hours over those above-normal GOM SSTs and exquisite upper tropospheric conditions and it would have likely bottomed out around 910 hPa, taking into account some leveling off as well. At that rate of pressure fall and gradient increase, even nine more hours we would have seen Michael flirt with 150-160 kts (175-185 mph) winds. 2) On the other hand, the eye was also contracting and a concentric band was beginning to form. So given too much more time, very probable that an ERC would have most likely initiated given another full 24 hrs, and we would have likely seen Michael level off and weaken. Yeah and I guess it was flirting with MPI so it couldn't have strengthened too much more. Would have naturally leveled off........ even without an ERC.

I know it was intensifying up until landfall. One can wonder how much stronger it would have gotten if it had another day over water. 185 mph? 190 mph?

Obviously just another data point< Hurricane Hunter Data but interesting anyways.

um.....

Any signs of activity after Delta?

Have you guys heard of Letchworth State Park. I've heard its a pretty nice park to go to. I think it is around an hour from Geneva.

Seems there is a case to pull this below major status at 11 pm.....

So yeah steady-state/ a little bit of weakening.

Recon says this storm has weakened a bit.

What do you think of the HWRF. It weakens Delta just below major status before the 1st landfall because of shear.

if true that is good news

Levi saying that recon found 80 mph winds. Seems like the strengthening continues.

My college driving up the #s in Ontario County yikes...

I would like to know the weather sites you look at lol jk. But for real none that I have seen have said that.

Confirmed

Oh please like you don’t do the same thing. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk