Paleocene

25/3 here in the UHI, silver spring

I live inside the DC beltway (and I have since 2011) so my expectations for what we can get in any storm are realistic. I will be happy if we get even 2" of snow falling in the late afternoon Sunday so I can go outside with my kid before it gets dark and have some fun. Sure it sucks we aren't getting HECS'D, but the trend has been clear on this one since Tuesday. That's OK, it's been a good January so far. Ideal scenario = snow--->sleet---> drizzle. Hoping the euro can lock in that solution.

NAM has precip in the DC area basically outta here by 06z monday (after only getting here just after 21z sunday)

MBY in the purple by a thread there. YEET

NAM is running! Never Accept Model results

12z/00z/yesterday 12z 500mb trend at 06z monday

lol yes. even my joking meme mind knows this thing is going west

Big dawg Euro is running! Is this our last hope? Of course not, this thing is still 72H away... but I am ing hard about this storm, so. LFG

Meme to QPF ratio is getting out of control

Side note, if you like tracking JV models, the RGEM is running now and is out to hour 48 on pivotal (free): https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022011312&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype&m=rdps (it's called RDPS on there)

Bit chilly sunday AM on the NAM eh?

This bad boy (circled in blue)? It seems to have strengthened 00z - 06z - 12z

The pivotal free site does seem to spit out the 3 hour intervals slightly before TT gets the next six hour interval.

I'll be happy if it snows with WAA as projected late sunday afternoon --> evening before the changeover once it's dark. Waking up to a slush/melted mess on Monday would be lame, but can't win em all, especially inside the beltway

Agreed, but panels like this bring a bit of gloom for me - especially if it's dumping rain at this hour. Agree, in the metro areas, we hope for dryslot

CWG has a post up on the potential storm with Wes as a co-author: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/01/11/dc-snow-chances-cold-pattern/

expectations any time the models show anything even resembling a major storm =

974mb low directly over NYC 24 hour QPF panel (it's out of DMV by this time). This thing brings the juice

Surface freezing line basically parallels 95 at hour 138 (06z mon)

Heavy snow in ATL at 120 hours.

Uppercut punch of heavy rain with a 990 low over basically Fredericksburg at hour 138, 6z monday.

This look like a full bazinga to me...

boom

love the new prof image. really digging deep with that one

BrooklynWX: "There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms. There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past. Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. " Vice-Regent: "BIG STORM MAKE ATMOSPHERE HOT AND WET, NO SNOW SORRY" Who you gonna believe?