Paleocene

Nam'd a bit on latest run. Flips to rain.

Canadian ensemble also has a half decent cold push around that time frame. I don't know (not an expert) if any of teh other ensembles/ops go past 240? meanwhile euro not bad with the front end thump mid week for northern forum:

If this map comes anywhere CLOSE to verifying and we don't get at least an inch of snow inside the beltway by feb 10th, I'm throwing in the towel. We've got the modeled cold finally

worth noting that euro had the low about 100 miles south in central tennessee at 00z last night, for the same time next weds. headed towards GFS steeper cut solution but maybe we're getting better confluence/colder air

I noticed daffodils sprouting all over the place last week/this week. Snowdrops gonna bloom soon... crocuses before we know it.

I did notice it looks consistently colder north of us after about hour 200, which has been lacking all winter. Montreal has been raining. But I'm sure the little wave D10-11 that runs through the lakes will trend stronger into a massive cutter and pull too much warm in air front of it, so the potential threat that rides the boundary after 300H doesnt have enough cold :-D

Forget next week and come live in digital blue fantasyland with me! Where it always snows!

Yes, I agree, those boom winters happened during our much hotter base state too. Sure, the atmosphere and the oceans have warmed more since 2016, and emissions are rocketing upward, but that doesn't change that we have these recent boom years. They may repeat, or they may not. TBD. Our average annual snowfall is decreasing. Our average annual temperatures are increasing. The chance of a boom snow year (and individual boom storms) have slightly increased; this slight increase is not enough to make up for our loss of average/marginal events. End result = less average snow over time

I hold out hope for this too (and sometimes wonder if CC contributed to 09-10). But aren't we moving away from that becoming more likely? CC may increase the probability of a boom winter, but doesn't it also decrease the probability of that happening sequentially? This is why I wish we had a bigger than 130 year dataset for annual snowfall. We have had warm periods before. How anomalous is this one? I bought myself a fancy north face parka-style jacket last year when it went on clearance. I've worn it on about 3 days this winter during the around xmas cold snap. otherwise i've worn it in Maine, and in upstate NY lol. It will continue to live in the closet. At least it won't wear out fast...right?

Agreed 100% -- the euro prior to 132 hours almost cues up jaws music in my head. This will keep me in the game but I am mindful of how the euro had a more positive depiction (than GFS) of the pre-christmas arctic front storm deal at one week out. GFS won

Seasonal trend has been for these lows to cut NW as we get closer to game time, and not get pushed south. I'll hold out hope for a wiggle S/E so I can get a couple inches of front end like the January storm last year before it flopped to rain in the metros

Euro doesn't cut as strong as the GFS with the mid-week deal next week. Maybe some front end? Marginal temps. Stronger high in quebec but mid level winds out of the toasty south over our region. Let's pray for stronger CAD and a further SE track

Congrats Chicago on the 25th storm.

Yeah, better than expected. Snow depth change maps don't look quite as positive, but still blues. Surface temps above freezing for most of the region during the snowfall after 18z sunday.

Temps are torchy on the GFS for the first thing that the ICON tried to put blue on us for. 540 line is up by interstate 80, surface temps around 40 in our region.

we like ike edit: ninja'd

I grew up in/around Harrisburg (don't worry, I've made it out and I don't go back). January 1994 was astonishing, I was a school-age kid and I remember an absolute glacier of ice on top of snow. The ice was strong enough to support my 8 year old weight and it must have had a foot of snow under it. We went sledding at a golf course and my brother got yeeted off his sled and scraped a bunch of skin off his face. That period through Jan '96 cemented my love of snow, which got me through the drought of '97-'99. Even up there in the great north of central PA, winters can suck. We need a reminiscence thread, sorry for the digression.

The D9/27th system cuts and transfers off Long Island for a decent SNE snowstorm, more importantly, GFS is showing an actual cold push after that.

Did we shut the blinds yet

This is my greatest fear as well. My brother north of Ithaca NY has gotten very little this winter too. But this is his cash in season when we rain. Headed up there for prez day weekend so hopefully we see snow

All those H bomb tests.

To improve the mood before the Euro runs I will post this picture that I took on 1/14/2019, when we got 6+" in a nice strip right across the DMV. This is on the northwest branch of the Anacostia near Hyattsville.

I'm all in on AGW and I don't doubt it's contributing to our warmer winter (and every other day of the year) stretch. Disclaimer, this post will probably be deleted/moved because I'm talking about CC, but I'd rather talk about it here than in that weird subforum thread. The point I want to make is we only have 130ish years of snowfall records. It would be really cool if we had a thousand years of records so we didn't have to rely on decade-to-decade comparisons within such a small dataset. For instance, what was annual snowfall in this region in the 1600s and 1700s? Anyone aware of any records kept during that period?

At this point i'll take a cold dry period over 50s and april showers.