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Paleocene

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Everything posted by Paleocene

  1. Paleocene
    looks like a slopfest for the cities but maybe M/D and north hold?
  2. Paleocene
    this is the first time all winter that the higher probability contours are actually in our area
  3. Paleocene
    Yep, ditto. '93, '96, '03 were all childhood/teenage storms for me and where I was in Harrisburg PA got hammered by all of them. I was in college in central PA for 09'10 and we got obliterated there. Feast or famine in the mid-atlantic!
  4. Paleocene
    yeah being on this model yo-yo is really fun. I'm just hoping my poor kid can see some snow. He's at the perfect age (elementary school). I remember some shitty winters (97-98) when I was a kid in PA and it was the worst to not get to play in the snow in the winter.
  5. Paleocene
    boomin out over the great dismal swamp
  6. Paleocene
    NAM Is running now, I am ready to cling to its definitely inaccurate surface precip projections in the 72-84 hour range to hallucinate snow IMBY!!! But seriously that cold difference shown above for 6z would be huge to say the least for the front end thump. We need something to hold on to hope with y'all.
  7. Paleocene
    Erm
  8. Paleocene
    Ha ha ... I get the NAM IS BAD MEME but I'm serious about it getting the gradient right in December. And met-taggers discussion that it did well versus the globals
  9. Paleocene
    Does anyone else remember the NAM doing pretty well with the big december storm, especially in regard to the R/S gradient line? Gonna be on that NAM this weekend for this setup.
  10. Paleocene
    Temps are not an issue with this one. Hopefully it gets some support... I'm not confident with the crazy variation on solutions we've seen for mon/tues next week, even inside 200 hours. 12 op GFS had a faster/flatter wave exit SE of hatteras around the same time. op CMC also has a wave moving east but it looks way less organized.
  11. Paleocene
    verbatim we hold the 850s well south during the thump period but those SW winds are uh, cranking in some 850 juice shortly thereafter
  12. Paleocene
  13. Paleocene
    Pray for thump--->dry slot verbatim on this one.
  14. Paleocene
    thumpage? before rain...
  15. Paleocene
  16. Paleocene
    it's runnin! i'm ready to post some inaccurate analysis
  17. Paleocene
    Thanks for asking this, was wondering the same.
  18. Paleocene
    Thought it was a rain shower that moistened the streets here in the UHI last evening but a quick morning walk revealed some graupel in the colder areas, especially on grass and mulch. That brings this thrilling season up to flurries twice in december, 1.5 inches of snow before heavy rain in the December storm, and graupel today. Better luck next week
  19. Paleocene
    minor changes from 00z to 12z at d10 lol
  20. Paleocene
    Yeah i think this is the right take, that wave coming out of the rockies weaker/less organized than it was on 00z. still much to learn!
  21. Paleocene
    I have called things wrong before as a n00b but it looks like the euro is about to crank up a weenie run post d8 on 12z... will add maps shortly edit: lesson: do not comment on model runs until they over :-D
  22. Paleocene
    A lot of this happens after D7 (post 168 hour mark). We flirt with above freezing in the afternoon next wednesday, but verbatim surface maps show most/all of this as snow NW of 95
  23. Paleocene
    Panel 174 also shows snow over DC
  24. Paleocene
  25. Paleocene
    yeah *bit* of a difference with the interaction with the NS 500mb low...they stay separate on 18z 12z... gobbles up the NS shortly thereafter.
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