Paleocene

This looks really pretty to my meteorologically uneducated eyes. Pretty cool to see that 50/50 and the block. I remember past discussion of neutral or negative tilt being desirable for the area of low pressure in the southern US, this is relatively neutral right?

This is good news indeed. I'll take my chances inside the beltway with that. 5 days out to get temps right...

Great CAD signature at 120 hours on the euro.

Here are the fresh GEFS ensemble lows. that is a hell of a cluster east of assateague

Don't want to spam the thread with pics but holy smokes the CMC buries i-95 corridor

cranking!

GFS 12Z on 12/11, for 12z thurs 17th. Capturing the projected wednesday storm 12/16

Freezing line at hour 126, at the surface, basically parallels I-95 south of baltimore. 850s line runs through charles, anne arundel, queen annes

CMC had too much Molson.

Not bad

BWI: 12.2" DCA: 7.5" IAD: 14.5" RIC: 6.0" SBY: 7.0"

I still haven't had to turn on the furnace, seeing if I can hold out until Friday/Saturday. Indoor temp dropped to 65 once but has held relatively steady for the past month around 68-70. Don't think that will last if lows in the 40s/30s happen. Turned on the AC once when it was humid around Sept 20th, but it has been a very good window-controlled HVAC season this fall.

I am noticing some color in maples and dogwoods in my inside-the-beltway neighborhood this week. Poplars are still deep green but they're going to start to tinge yellow in a few weeks. The changes seem a bit early this year, not that I mind! Here's a photo of a dogwood on the NW side of my house that's mostly under a canopy of poplars.

I was not debating the lack of recent precipitation, or the current drought status. I was debating your statement "this should not be such a dry time normally," which was about the next 384 hours on the GFS. When I go out to 384 on the GFS (18z) it shows most of the region in the 2+ inch range... which over the next 16 days, would be slightly above average based on the average amounts I posted above.

Grabbed this off wikipedia for 1981-2010 averages at DCA. Looks like February is in fact the driest month of the year, on average. You sure about your statement? Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Average precipitation inches (mm) 2.81 (71.4) 2.62 (66.5) 3.48 (88.4) 3.06 (77.7) 3.99 (101.3) 3.78 (96) 3.73 (94.7) 2.93 (74.4) 3.72 (94.5) 3.40 (86.4) 3.17 (80.5) 3.05 (77.5) 39.74 (1,009.4)

triggered