GunBlade
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Everything posted by GunBlade
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40/36 humidity 85 in Matthews. Doesn’t sound great but the Temp DP and Humidity have been steadily dropping throughout the night and morning even with moisture moving in so there’s plenty of cooling to come. And the 850 line has dropped mostly through Union County now as well.
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Take the GFS qpf and the NAM warm nose and that’s your storm. NAM has sniffed out more than enough warm noses in my area over the years for me to never underestimate it. I’ve also seen it ramp up QPF like crazy right up to the storm and then verify with half what was modeled.
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Was in office with blinds closed, walked out and it’s snowing good in Matthews. Welcomed surprise!
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Wet bulb temp is right around 32 here in Matthews if moisture holds together and doesn’t warm anymore.
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Feels like we always error to a degree warmer than shown and end with 33/34 rain...
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Nothing better than a well performing ULL. Some of the best 1-2 hours of snow in some of those I’ve ever seen.
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GSP updated maps very similar to last one.
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Man that moisture is literally hitting a wall of dry air and not moving at all in NC. I’d bet in the areas like CLT where that has setup do fairly well in the end since the CAD should keep strengthening. https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
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Outside of Roanoke impressive to see your intitial and final estimates lining up. Just shows how well in general this has been modeled. As long as the storm continues as advertised.
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19z HRRR
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Nothing posted shows that. Back it up with models if you’re going to make bold statements.
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Every single storm. When you’re SE of 85 by less than 10 miles and around 1 mile from 485 every little thing has huge implications. If the HRRR is right at least we can hopefully stick to mostly snow and sleet. I’ll take that in early December.
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850 down to NC/SC border and 925 at Meck Union border.
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18z HRRR still bringing the goods. LOTS of mixing but holding strong with colder air out to 21.
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17z HRRR holding on to keeping rain much further south.
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Agreed, not taking them face value and using lots of other thought they can be helpful. Most don’t. I’m probably also more biased based on climatology where I’m at since it’s so hard for any model to nail down this area.
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Time and time again the Globals fail this close to the storm. It’s fruitless trying to forecast with those now unless you want to prove a point that’s likely to not come to fruition...
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Yea we all know what an ULL can do so the fact that the heart of the storm is generating those totals is a good sign
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Nope. Only goes to 4 pm and there’s a dry slot over CLT but here’s 2 pm.
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Yea HRRR definitely impressive. Flips CLT over to a mix at 11 tonight and never flips it back. Keeps the line much further south. Big model battle going on.
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First animation has 850 temps.
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Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Places like CLT and just south will be hoping the FV3 is right.
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I’m ok with about .10 freezing rain after snow. Awesome view when the sun rises with a little ice on the trees and coating the snow making everything glisten.
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Fixed for you
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Not sure much analysis can be done until the storm gets there. Always a potential though.
