GunBlade
-
Posts
482 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by GunBlade
-
Yea living in the SE is like the free beer tomorrow sign. You go back the next day but it’s still free beer tomorrow. Except we have to wait years....
-
It’s not unusual to see flurries in the Piedmont from a westerly flow like the HRRR is showing. Someone smarter than me could explain or tell my I’m completely wrong in my thinking lol. I assume it’s similar to how the mountains force warm air down lower in the summer in the Piedmont from the lift they create. But now that warmer air produces a secondary lift in the Piedmont area producing light flurries. Problem is there’s little moisture in the first place, it’s cold air which holds less moisture, and the mountains squeeze most of it out. I remember one rogue 3” or so snow we got in Charlotte area from a setup like that. Very light blowing snow that piled up in about an hour.
-
I wouldn’t put much faith in the HRRR 40+ hours out.
-
50/50 sleet and snow now. Big flakes starting. Elevated surfaces and other non road areas have a decent coating of sleet.
-
Snow quickly starting to mix in with sleet in Matthews nc just south of clt
-
Heavy sleet and rain in Matthews NC
-
925 and 850 also continue to drop as moisture moves in. As of now most of Meck and Union NC are below freezing on 925 and completely below freezing on 850’s. I’d say it looks promising for places like clt and Matthews once the bulk of it finally moves in.
-
This link. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17#
-
40/36 humidity 85 in Matthews. Doesn’t sound great but the Temp DP and Humidity have been steadily dropping throughout the night and morning even with moisture moving in so there’s plenty of cooling to come. And the 850 line has dropped mostly through Union County now as well.
-
Feels like we always error to a degree warmer than shown and end with 33/34 rain...
-
Nothing better than a well performing ULL. Some of the best 1-2 hours of snow in some of those I’ve ever seen.
-
GSP updated maps very similar to last one.
-
Man that moisture is literally hitting a wall of dry air and not moving at all in NC. I’d bet in the areas like CLT where that has setup do fairly well in the end since the CAD should keep strengthening. https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
-
Outside of Roanoke impressive to see your intitial and final estimates lining up. Just shows how well in general this has been modeled. As long as the storm continues as advertised.
-
19z HRRR
-
Nothing posted shows that. Back it up with models if you’re going to make bold statements.
-
Every single storm. When you’re SE of 85 by less than 10 miles and around 1 mile from 485 every little thing has huge implications. If the HRRR is right at least we can hopefully stick to mostly snow and sleet. I’ll take that in early December.
-
850 down to NC/SC border and 925 at Meck Union border.
-
18z HRRR still bringing the goods. LOTS of mixing but holding strong with colder air out to 21.
-
17z HRRR holding on to keeping rain much further south.
-
Agreed, not taking them face value and using lots of other thought they can be helpful. Most don’t. I’m probably also more biased based on climatology where I’m at since it’s so hard for any model to nail down this area.
-
Time and time again the Globals fail this close to the storm. It’s fruitless trying to forecast with those now unless you want to prove a point that’s likely to not come to fruition...
-
Yea we all know what an ULL can do so the fact that the heart of the storm is generating those totals is a good sign
-
Nope. Only goes to 4 pm and there’s a dry slot over CLT but here’s 2 pm.
-
Yea HRRR definitely impressive. Flips CLT over to a mix at 11 tonight and never flips it back. Keeps the line much further south. Big model battle going on.
