GunBlade

FWIW current 850 temps are colder than NAM showed for 03z

Depends on when and where you’re at.

I don’t take severe weather lightly, especially with two young kids. But we just got this email from our sons daycare. Really?!?!? Category 4 storm?!?!? Due to the category 4 storm moving through our area mid-day tomorrow and in considering the safety of all staff and families as a result we will operate on a half day schedule of 7:30am-12:00pm tomorrow, Thursday, March 18, 2021. In case of loss of power or damage to our building or facilities we will communicate any further plans to close beyond tomorrow no later than 7am Friday morning.

I wish I had pictures. I was right by the 16 in Union county. Thinking back to then and the decade leading up to it is depressing. We usually had one decent snow it seemed like. Had cold spells long enough to freeze the small lake in our neighborhood to walk on. Now I have kids and can’t get a good enough snow to take them sledding one day.... It’s got to get better eventually right? LOL that’s what I tell myself every year at least.

Maybe Mother Nature will have mercy on us and repeat 04 to hold everyone off for another 16 years before it happens again.

32/32 in Matthews. Temp and dew point have been the same and falling together since 3 am or so. Will be interesting to see if it falls another degree or two and holds. This is from the NOAA station in Matthews so it’s strange to see other guidance like SPC that shows the freezing line much further north currently.

Sunset has nothing to do with the dew points. They will lower sun or not by cold dry air from the NE. Temps and dew points will lower cloud cover or not as well. Use the link below and choose the observations tab to see current temp and dew point. That dry air to the NE is what will continue to be blown in and just how that plays out determines who gets more ice and who gets less. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# What you will see tomorrow is that even though precip moves in the dew point will barely move because dry air is being pumped in. Even if you are 44/25 or whatever now that will change a lot.

To echo Brad P. The 3K NAM initialized with CLT dew point 3-4 degrees higher than they are currently. Matthews, NC NOAA station (just south of Charlotte) is currently at 29 degrees. 3K NAM initializes CLT at 33 degrees. BIG difference when 1 degree determines who gets cold rain or not.

Both maps above are clearly drawn based on geographic norms and have little to do with current modeling. I mean accuweathers significant icing area is one of the lowest areas on current models.

33 rain. Even better ugh...

Exactly. Water freezing releases latent heat so when you’re only a degree or two away from freezing it’s as you said very self limiting.

Thought it was only rain here but chairs outside have a decent amount of sleet on them....

Yea probably bc 850’s in those area are at least -2.

I’ll disagree with many posts. I don’t see there being much ice accumulation from this, even at the border. It’s a heavy rain that will be in and out in 8 hours with marginal temps. A decent coat of ice from light rain or drizzle at 30 or 31 degrees, sure. But not .75” of heavy rain at 30 degrees.

GFS has nice fantasy storm.

The ULL is also no longer closed off and models don’t show it closing back off so expect to see the west side quickly crash

The ULL isn’t going to transition off the coast like a low pressure. It will slowly move eastward.

ULL for the win.

Yea I remember years past commiserating on our lack of snow here! You must’ve been in an even worse spot since it’d be snowing where I am and raining where you were. Good luck in Durham!

The 3k has the strongest cutoff low and it lasts the longest as well. That’s why Charlotte and areas east get snow at all. Any changes to that cutoff will make or break snow accumulations in those areas.

Look at the upper dynamics on a model.

On the positive side it’s an ULL not a backend deform band. Much more likely to score from an ULL depending on the track.

Love when it’s a good sleet to start then changeover to snow. Not that this will be that way...

Fabulous February!

Agreed about weenies. I think he does a great job explaining models and spending a lot of time outside of work to justify his reasoning, even if others disagree. That says a lot alone. Fact of the matter is, in Charlotte and most of NC, the most conservative and/or pessimistic person would still be right more often than not. Brad and Matthew East are the best two mainstream Mets for NC hands down. And Happy New Year to everyone as well!