GunBlade

To echo Brad P. The 3K NAM initialized with CLT dew point 3-4 degrees higher than they are currently. Matthews, NC NOAA station (just south of Charlotte) is currently at 29 degrees. 3K NAM initializes CLT at 33 degrees. BIG difference when 1 degree determines who gets cold rain or not.

Both maps above are clearly drawn based on geographic norms and have little to do with current modeling. I mean accuweathers significant icing area is one of the lowest areas on current models.

33 rain. Even better ugh...

Exactly. Water freezing releases latent heat so when you’re only a degree or two away from freezing it’s as you said very self limiting.

Thought it was only rain here but chairs outside have a decent amount of sleet on them....

Yea probably bc 850’s in those area are at least -2.

I’ll disagree with many posts. I don’t see there being much ice accumulation from this, even at the border. It’s a heavy rain that will be in and out in 8 hours with marginal temps. A decent coat of ice from light rain or drizzle at 30 or 31 degrees, sure. But not .75” of heavy rain at 30 degrees.

GFS has nice fantasy storm.

The ULL is also no longer closed off and models don’t show it closing back off so expect to see the west side quickly crash

The ULL isn’t going to transition off the coast like a low pressure. It will slowly move eastward.

ULL for the win.

Yea I remember years past commiserating on our lack of snow here! You must’ve been in an even worse spot since it’d be snowing where I am and raining where you were. Good luck in Durham!

The 3k has the strongest cutoff low and it lasts the longest as well. That’s why Charlotte and areas east get snow at all. Any changes to that cutoff will make or break snow accumulations in those areas.

Look at the upper dynamics on a model.

On the positive side it’s an ULL not a backend deform band. Much more likely to score from an ULL depending on the track.

Love when it’s a good sleet to start then changeover to snow. Not that this will be that way...

Fabulous February!

Agreed about weenies. I think he does a great job explaining models and spending a lot of time outside of work to justify his reasoning, even if others disagree. That says a lot alone. Fact of the matter is, in Charlotte and most of NC, the most conservative and/or pessimistic person would still be right more often than not. Brad and Matthew East are the best two mainstream Mets for NC hands down. And Happy New Year to everyone as well!

Yea living in the SE is like the free beer tomorrow sign. You go back the next day but it’s still free beer tomorrow. Except we have to wait years....

It’s not unusual to see flurries in the Piedmont from a westerly flow like the HRRR is showing. Someone smarter than me could explain or tell my I’m completely wrong in my thinking lol. I assume it’s similar to how the mountains force warm air down lower in the summer in the Piedmont from the lift they create. But now that warmer air produces a secondary lift in the Piedmont area producing light flurries. Problem is there’s little moisture in the first place, it’s cold air which holds less moisture, and the mountains squeeze most of it out. I remember one rogue 3” or so snow we got in Charlotte area from a setup like that. Very light blowing snow that piled up in about an hour.

I wouldn’t put much faith in the HRRR 40+ hours out.

50/50 sleet and snow now. Big flakes starting. Elevated surfaces and other non road areas have a decent coating of sleet.

Snow quickly starting to mix in with sleet in Matthews nc just south of clt

Heavy sleet and rain in Matthews NC

925 and 850 also continue to drop as moisture moves in. As of now most of Meck and Union NC are below freezing on 925 and completely below freezing on 850’s. I’d say it looks promising for places like clt and Matthews once the bulk of it finally moves in.