Newman

Can't wait to wake up in the low 40s Sunday

Low of 53 tonight with a dew point of 48? Yes please, bring on Fall

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop from northern Virginia into northern Maryland and southeast Pennsylvania by 21-22Z. A few supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats. A tornado watch will likely be needed prior to 21Z. DISCUSSION...As of mid afternoon a progressive vorticity maximum was situated over southwestern PA and will continue east into the Middle Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. A band of low-topped convection has already developed in association with this feature extending into northern WV where instability is limited. Farther downstream, a lee trough resides just east of the central and southern Appalachian mountains. East of this feature temperatures have warmed to the upper 80s F with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s contributing to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE despite very weak mid-level lapse rates resulting from warm temperatures aloft. As the corridor of deeper ascent attending the shortwave trough continues east and begins to overtake the western edge of the moist warm sector, additional storms will likely develop from northern VA into southeast PA. Winds in the 850-500 mb layer will undergo a modest increase with approach of the impulse, resulting in 35-40 kt effective bulk shear and 100-200 m2/s2 storm relative helicity. This environment should be sufficient for some organized storm structures including a few supercells capable of locally strong to damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes through early evening.

Parts of the first half of September look to be below normal temps finally. Can we buy a similar look in 3-4 months?

Enhanced risk of severe wind tomorrow

11:30 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 Location: 25.0°N 87.4°W Moving: NNW at 14 mph Min pressure: 992 mb Max sustained: 75 mph

Power is out. Still raining. My station is down now but definitely over 4" of rain. Started the day slow but made it up in a hurry

Heavy driving rain. Worst of the storm occurring right now

Currently a Met major at Millersville myself, Horst is a local legend. Knows his stuff very well. Back on topic, will be exciting to read through this sub-forum later. Hoping y'all have fun.

Some good flooding occurring here too. Dumping rain.

Tornado warning as far north as the poconos now. Lots of storms spinning right now!

Radar confirmed tornado heading into southern chester county....

Heavy rain beginning to spread into the area. Tornadoes are going to be LIKELY across Jersey and maybe as far west as Philly. That tail across the ocean is fierce. Out this way, I'm dead smack in the middle of the high risk for excessive rainfall

Yeah confirmed tornadoes across Delaware. Those storms are only going to rotate into a more primed environment across the Jersey and NYC areas.

That tornado watch has high risk and 70% probs of at least 2 or more tornadoes within the watch box. Don't see that often.

Those heavier bands look like they are about to pivot west into my area soon, not much in the way of heavy rain yet. Storm is booking as expected

The speed of this thing might be what saves us from even worse flooding. It'll be booking, so a quick soaking is likely. 2-4" likely, pockets of more. Flooding is likely too, just the speed will limit anything too severe I think. We shall see

Yeah Harrisburg has an average temperature of 81.8 this month. That's on pace for the hottest July on record.

This tropical system coming through tomorrow looks interesting, WPC rainfall forecast:

Euro is bone dry for the next 10 days

Yeah storm that rolled through earlier was very solid, likely some 50-60mph gusts mixed in.

Had some Mammatus pop out behind the storms

Temp already back up to 82 and very soupy out. Severe parameters ramping up again. Will we see what we just saw this morning? Probably not. But some discrete cells capable of hail/wind definitely possible. Supercell Composite shooting up nicely. Will be interesting to see how destabilized we can get again...

Sun fully out again, dare I say a rare two-storms in one day occurrence? Atmosphere is very stabilzed behind the MCS but western and central PA have exploded with their severe parameters. Lapse rates will need to recover because there is no buoyancy in the atmosphere right now. But I think with enough sun, we'll be able to boost CAPE and bring in some discrete cells later...

The amount of trees down and damage across Berks County is insane right now. Go to the Fire Alerts of Berks Facebook page to see all the damage. It's incredible.