Scarlet Pimpernel

"Odds blood this club wants cheering up! Sink me, the place is a mausoleum!" (From the 1934 version of "The Scarlet Pimpernel") Sorry, couldn't resist the quote! The mood in here is almost insanely low, however! Yeah, I get that people are disappointed that we missed out on the big storm in the southeast, but really, it was only a small number of Euro and GFS runs the other week that were showing that we might get hammered as well. For the most part, guidance wasn't all that favorable for us, and we'd be on the northern fringes at best. We were hoping for incremental "improvements" to give us something. I mean, this isn't like the event last February that was literally whisked away near the last minute. Or the pattern shown for days and weeks for February 2024 in the extended ensembles, with this epic classic look, everyone was talking about how that would give us a HECS, etc., and then...it flipped to showing crap and that February was rather warm and uneventful. And even now, people want to argue that our event last weekend was a relative "fail" because it sleeted for hours rather than all or nearly all snow. I can also get that, to an extent, but come on. An area-wide 6-12" combined snow and sleet that turned into a literal glacier. Hell, I can walk on top of the snow and not even have my feet sink into it; like walking on regular pavement (though slipperier)! We've now had a week-plus straight of well below freezing temperatures, and the upcoming week looks cold (though not as cold as last week) with perhaps a bit of a refresher light amount mid-week. When's the last time we had nearly 2 straight weeks of deep winter at that level? But people want to say it's a waste, because we didn't get a foot or more from one or two events. Will it warm up or relax after the next week? Yeah, and that's not really much of a surprise. We're not going to get a solid month or more of cold around these parts. As long as there's a lot of cold lurking up in Canada and we see those 1030+ highs around, and given the overall indications in the longwave pattern, I still have to think we're in a good spot through early March. But even if nothing much happens, this past week or so was still rather amazing!

Nahhh, too much sleet. More like 5'6"!!

OK, I know this is banter (but who cares in this thread since the "event" is all but gone)...but as a hobbyist/amateur photographer I particularly like the lighting in that shot.

Yeah, it may not do much but I see the clear differences in there. Not just the position of the H5 low center but looking just east of that, there's a more northward meridional bend on the height lines in the RDPS.

Well...technically that 3rd one you list, 0/0, would be either undefined or infinite!!!

I was about to say that the NAM didn't exactly "score" anything big for the 2016 blizzard, as every single piece of guidance hammered that storm well in advance, even well before the NAM was within range. But then I saw your location and did wonder if the NAM pushed it farther up for NYC to get hit (I believe 24" fell there?)? Honestly don't recall because at that point nobody around here was really looking outside this region. And that was a much more predictable situation, relatively speaking.

How many ass hairs does it take to make a HECS??

@Maestrobjwa and @stormtracker...I saw that today is Mozart's birthday!! Now, I know that @stormtracker is not the biggest fan...I believe he once referred to Mozart with the phrase "his harpsichord playing ass!"...but as a classical music lover I still appreciate Mozart! Great music and great opera music as well! (Though I still must say Beethoven is my favorite!) ETA...I just have to add this link too, from one of my favorite movies!

Strange days when we'd refer to a 4-6" snowfall as a "refresher!!" But I know what you mean. I'm not unicorn hunting...though would take it if it actually happens! I'm mostly trying to see if we can get a decent event like a high-end advisory to low-end warning level amount and not sit here smoking cirrus. I think too many are thinking if it's not the unicorn, then it's a fail.

That mean snowfall is noticeably HIGHER than the deterministic amount from the GFS!

Hmm, OK...must be some weird discrepancy between the display providers. It's like half that on TT. But either way, at least a decent minor event and possibly more hopefully.

What area are you looking at? I checked TT for the 24-h QPF amounts and it's ~0.25-0.3" along I-95. Obviously progressively more as you go south and east.

It's a very fickle outcome to be sure, and all depends on how things interact, etc. But honestly, I think too many here are overly invested in a big dog HECS kind of event, or they figure all we'll end up doing out this way is smoke cirrus. Right now, I'm looking to see if we can get some kind of minor-moderate level snowfall out of it, with some slight hope of potentially a lot more. I think that may be doable and more realistic at this point. And really, if (for example) we get about 4-6" in the metro areas and all along I-95, I really don't think I'd care too much if some places southeast of us get 2 feet or whatever. Would be different if we get zip or barely a coating of course, but you get the idea.

Better than smoking cirrus a'la the Euro. A lot better.

As I mentioned earlier, if we can have a decent shot at a relatively minor 2-4" or 3-5" cold powder, I cannot complain too much (though obviously would take a HECS if it would happen!). Seriously, I would like to at least get into a position where we're more assured to be on the western edge and still able to get some halfway decent snow amounts.

Very true, and I've seen ice chunks come off people's vehicles before as well.

Yeah I've run into that a couple of times, where the car in front of you still has a big layer of snow on the roof. It leaves you in a localized mini-blizzard on the highway because the snow on their car blows backward onto you. Real pain.

At this point, I've more or less "given up" on a major, huge storm. It was a long shot anyhow even with the amazing couple of model runs. Though I would be glad if indications went back that way and it were to happen, of course! That said, I'm kind of wondering more now about the possibility of eeking out a minor 2-4"/3-5" type deal, along the edge of whatever monster system develops. It would be cold, high-ratio powder stuff presumably. I think @Bob Chill or perhaps @psuhoffman kind of discussed that the other day to an extent? I don't think this necessarily has to be an all-or-nothing raging blizzard or smoking cirrus that seems to be the general feeling in here from some people.

Now THAT'S a true die-hard! Grilling in these elements!!! Reminds me of the Feb. 14, 2015 Arctic front event that dropped a quick 2" blustery snow (and then turned bitter cold), when @Bob Chill said he was out in his garage grilling during those squalls!!! I believe he said that was actually one of his favorite "minor" events; I feel the same about that one! As for me...doing the traditional chicken soup over egg noodles. Got one of those pre-cooked chickens from the deli to cut up, plus some carrots, celery, onion...yummmm!

I had the same thing happen to me during the 2009-10 epic winter, at my apartment at the time in Silver Spring! It was for the Feb. 5-6 event in fact. Was clearing off and digging out my car in the space I had it parked. Took a short break to go inside and left the shovel in the snow right next to the car. Came back and...GONE! F*ing F**ckers!!! Fortunately I was able to borrow another one from someone and finish the shoveling.

Not sure about all 3. I'd have to think DCA will be hard-pressed to go below 0. Maybe single digits but you know how that location is right on the water. But one never knows. This is a serious airmass and we'll have snow/sleet cover with plenty of cooling at night once this has cleared through. Nearby DCA in the metro area? I can definitely see a possibility for that.

I'd generally agree on the winter event scale. While not a HECS with 20"+ snow, it's obviously very high-impact and it won't be disappearing anytime soon (making the impact even greater). The amount of sleet on top of the snow is insane. And it is "dry" sleet (if that's a thing), not the kind that clings together on the ground. It almost literally blows around with a gust of wind (or walking through it). I'm sure that will freeze solid at some point.