Scarlet Pimpernel

Yeah...I generally just give a quick look for an overview on TT or some such site, plus it goes out farther than the 3km nest. But when honing in on things, 3km is typically the way to go.

Certainly for temperatures and thermal profiles at least.

Speaking of that 2nd storm in Feb. 2010 (Feb. 9-10)...I've shared this before, but out of all the photos I took during that incredible winter, this is my favorite. Cars still buried from the storm a few days earlier, almost seemingly groaning under the weight of yet MORE snow. And those snowflakes were like parachutes, plus temperatures were in the 20s with screaming winds.

First tropical system of the season???

Does it crash temps (relatively speaking) after 18Z sometime?

Maybe not "smoke" per se, but pasted with mashed potatoes sticking to every single surface if that verifies!!

I was just about to say, if this works out, a Sunday evening Jebwalk will be in order (with camera in hand)!!

Yup, exactly. We're not getting the crazy totals here in the DMV. I don't get the "disappointment" from some at models consistently showing around 6" or even a bit more around here, just because PHL-BOS might get 2 feet. Who cares, as long as we can do well, at least that's my feeling.

FWIW, I checked out WPC's page and here's what is indicated for the 50th percentile through 12Z Monday (24-h snow). Issued earlier this morning. So yeah, that other plot for some reason must be a higher percentile. Still, this looks pretty darned fine to me!

I can see DCA recording 3.3" snow while areas immediately outside the airport have 10"!!! Just how it is there!

I mean yes, of course I'd love to get into the best stuff here! Not saying otherwise. Just that I think expecting some of the crazy amounts that generally have not been shown over the cities (talking DC-Balt corridor) in the guidance...that area is farther east and northeast...is just setting oneself up for disappointment. If we somehow manage 6-10" or 8-12" here along with what could be some pretty strong winds, that's a win as far as I'm concerned. Again, I certainly would LOVE to get an historic level amount. But unless things change today such that all or nearly all guidance shows that, I'm not going to expect it; it would be icing in the cake really. However, if all or nearly all guidance continues to show a really good warning level event, that would be great.

We were never really likely to be in the "best of the best" location here so I don't really see the issue. I mean really...expectations, people! Goal in my mind is a solid warning-level event, and who would complain at 6-10" of paste (besides usual suspects!)?

Someone in one of the storm event threads mentioned the St. Pat's storm in March 2014 (I think @yoda did, or maybe it was another March storm he meant?). While I totally get the concern about temperatures at the start of this upcoming event, I have to think that if we get the rates that the models are indicating, and with still a fair amount occurring late day and overnight, we should still accumulate a decent amount here. For some perspective, here's how that St. Pat's storm looked at DCA for the week leading into it (date, max temp, min temp, average temp, temp departure, HDD, CDD, precip, snow, snow depth). Notice how warm it was most of the days before, plus this was ~3 weeks LATER than where we are now. 2014-03-10 60 37 48.5 6.1 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2014-03-11 67 41 54.0 11.3 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2014-03-12 67 31 49.0 6.0 16 0 0.10 0.0 0 2014-03-13 33 20 26.5 -16.8 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 2014-03-14 55 22 38.5 -5.1 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2014-03-15 66 39 52.5 8.6 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2014-03-16 45 26 35.5 -8.7 29 0 0.19 4.9 0 2014-03-17 31 24 27.5 -17.0 37 0 0.27 3.2 7

Fair enough! But I just get a laugh out of that Groucho Marx eyebrow gif!!!

OK, @Maestrobjwa, given what's transpired in the models today, do you think it's time to raise more than half an eyebrow? Can we go full GROUCHO?!?!

Yup...and that also would cover essentially the entire region.

Seems pretty reasonable for an initial broad forecast on amounts, given the uncertainty that still exists. Either way, that's a warning-level amount across much of this subforum and beyond, including DC-Balt.

True, not spiking the football by any means on this event. I mostly meant that in reference to the fact that it has now reached 2 storm-related threads AND a dedicated JV Banter one, so that's like big time right there!

Yeah I don't totally get it. If we by chance were to get something like an area-wide 6-10 or 8-12" say, I honestly couldn't care if PHL, NYC, or BOS got 2 feet. I mean really, for awhile this week it was looking dubious for a slushy inch or so with the GFS out on its own in lala land with a ridiculous amount, and now we've got a legit chance at solid warning-criteria. Can't complain too much.

Regardless of how this turns out, you're here in spirit, with GUYS and FOLKS!!!

LOL! Well, personally I couldn't care less how much they get even if they get totally bombed, as long as we can score well here.

Ehhh, well if you get called to a jury screening just say "I think the defendant is guilty as sin!!" and get tossed from any jury consideration, and you're done! LOL!!!