Scarlet Pimpernel

Really? OK, yeah, looking at snow maps out at 384 hours is taken with a grain of salt and all that. But that 25% (5/20) of members you mention have the DC-Balt corridor in the "purple" and higher colors (6"+). And another four are >2" through that time. That seems like a decent signal to me. Also, while this is the total through that time, I'd wager nearly all that occurs in the latter part of the time frame seeing that we're heading toward a lousy and warm pattern for several days coming up well into next week. I'd guess that's the most bullish the GEFS has been in quite some time, and a big improvement (and step toward what the EPS has been showing?) over previous runs just a couple days ago.

@psuhoffman, many thanks for compiling this! Very informative and useful...appreciate your efforts and time!

Very true...unfortunately!! The ensembles have been very impressive and were pretty well spot on with the current pattern and look, as bad as it is for anyone wanting snow. People need to better understand the difference between single deterministic runs out beyond a week (or even less) and ensembles through the same time period and beyond. In general, ensembles will be much more reliable and accurate on the overall pattern/flow drivers without wild swings each model run. Not that ensembles don't have their "issues" and cannot be wrong, but you get the idea. (ETA: And yeah, the EPS has been killing it...and killing us, LOL!!)

LOL!! In all seriousness, I haven't been able to see the Euro or CMC maps leading up to what they're showing. But I'll make a slight assumption that despite timing differences and interpretation of how it evolves, they're both pretty well showing what is perhaps the "same" system out in that time range, correct (and not totally different waves, etc.)? Not that it matters at that range so much, but it is nice to see *something* on more than one model out there, and I guess the GFS did too, sort of. As you said, it's an event to consider at this point, which is more than we've had so far.

Thanks for this, PSU! A very good comment and well-reasoned post about what to look out for and what historically occurs if the Pacific remains stubbornly ugly still in about 2 weeks or so. I'm optimistic too, that at least we won't have a total dumpster fire in the end. For now anyway! You make an interesting point too about whether climate change renders a lot of analogues somewhat moot. Along that line I think some time back you suggested that some of the older analogues that pop up might not be as useful now as they once were. I think that would be an interesting area to investigate, and wonder when various analogue years or time periods sort of "time out" now.

Yeah, the D10 looks not half bad, all things considered. But that D15 that @psuhoffman showed is an absolute shite look...or, as he put it "exactly the opposite of what we want". Strangely, I can see how this relatively decent D10 can morph into what PSU showed for 5 days later, if that ridging extending into the Aleutians doesn't move east very much or at all. The trough in the east would just get pushed out eventually, I guess, as that Aleutian ridge forces a deeper west coast trough. And we don't even need to say how lousy the NAO region is. (ETA: Nothing personal meant by my comments, @psuhoffman, that was all directed at how things looked of course and not at you! You're just the messenger. Though I assume you knew what I was saying!)

Agreed...and a very interesting look. Bob (and anyone else), looking at the 216h and 240h plots above...I can see how that ridging in the intermountain west and up in to Canada results in what could be a more favorable split-flow potential. However, looking outside that, would we also perhaps ideally want that E-W oriented ridge that's "pointing" toward the Gulf of AK to eventually be a bit farther east and orient more N-S in time? Curious what that might do, hypothetically. Could it be a hint of re-generating a more favorable -EPO?

I found a photo of the Reaper here in the Redemption Room recently...though it was rain, not snow! (ETA: I use this as a joke, but an awesome movie!! One of my all-time favorites, and too bad Morgan Freeman didn't get an Oscar for his performance in "Shawshank Redemption"!! In fact, too bad that movie didn't earn any despite several nominations.)

@PrinceFrederickWx ...I wonder the same thing. If that were a "one hit wonder" winter, or if there were no other events close to as significant that year, would that event be viewed a bit differently. Not that I'd trade anything from 2009-10 at all, mind you, haha! But like I said, the fact that the Dec. 2009 event could almost be an "afterthought" or "one of the big-3" by mid-February of that winter is surreal and a true testament to how record-breaking that year was. Will we see the likes of that again? Upon thinking of things more, I'd still have to say the most impactful and significant event in my lifetime was the "White Hurricane" that hit Ohio and other parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on Jan. 26-27, 1978. No, the snow was not record-breaking or even all that incredible where I was in northeast Ohio (6-12", there about). But truly dangerous and severe blizzard conditions for a full day, with wind gusts pushing 70-100 MPH and temperatures in the single-digits. Not to mention the record-breaking low pressure over a large area (957 mb as it passed right over Cleveland, into Lake Erie and eventually southern Canada). The temperature dropped 30 degrees in a 2-hour period between 4-6 AM that morning. All that coupled with the fact that it occurred in the second of two very cold and snowy winters in the eastern U.S.

Wow. This is a tough one and I don't even think I can vote at this time for a "best" event. They were all great in their own way and had their own life, so to speak. I was not here for the ones prior to PD-II (I moved to the area in summer 2001), but I certainly heard a fair bit about PD-I in 1979, Feb. 1983, Superstorm March 1993, and the Jan. 1996 blizzard. I was in northeast Ohio during March 1993, we had blizzard conditions, temperatures in the teens, and got about 8-12" snow (southeast OH got close to 2 feet I believe). In Jan. 1996 I was in Atlanta in graduate school, we got a lot of rain from that followed by an inch or two of crusty snow and cold temperatures for a few days after. Anyhow, in terms of sheer snow accumulation only for the area I live in (near suburbs of northwest DC, in MD), the Jan. 22-23, 2016 blizzard and Snowmageddon 2010 top the list (I measured 24.0" from the 2016 storm and 23.5 from Snowmageddon in 2010). But taken as a whole, Snowmageddon plus the Feb. 9-10 blizzard a few days later in 2010 would probably top my list...though that's technically two storms and not one. I still recall going to bed late on Feb. 9, thinking it might be a bust, after we transitioned to freezing drizzle and some sleet after a couple inches or so of snow. I woke up the next morning around 7AM, fully expecting nothing...only to be greeted by whiteout conditions when I looked out the window. That was amazing, and lasted into the mid-afternoon. Actually, the 12-day period from Jan. 30-Feb. 10, 2010 is perhaps the most concentrated, snowy period I have ever experienced in my life (and I've lived through some snowy/cold winters in Ohio). Four warning-level events in that time: Jan. 30, Feb. 2, Feb. 5-6, and Feb. 9-10 was unreal, and two of those were genuine HECS. And we came damn close to another warning-level event around Presidents' Day that year, I recall, at least there was some possibility of that for awhile (we ended up with light snow but not a lot). The one thing about 2009-10, I've always thought the first HECS...Dec. 18-19, 2009 ("Snowpocalypse")...kind of got overshadowed by February that winter. By that time, everyone was talking about those two events separated by mere days, with hardly a mention of the December event. Which now, seems surreal that we could even do that! The December storm was near perfect (I got 20.0" from that one) in terms of temperatures and snow. And there was sheer excitement about that storm, as it was really the first true HECS in the DC area since PD-II in 2003 (yes, I know some areas got significant amounts from other events, e.g., Feb. 2006, but I'm talking area-wide DC/VA/MD region getting HECS-level snow).

Shawshank Redemption for the redemption room! Rehabilitated? It's just a bull**t word! One of my favorite scenes from that movie (which is one of my favorite movies).

For Feb. 5-6, I love that little relative minimum dot right over DCA (same for the totals through the Feb. 4-10 period)!!!! Anyhow, I've been here since 2001, so the biggest events for me since then would be (1)Feb. 5-6, 2010, (2)Dec. 18-19, 2009, (3)Feb. 16-17, 2003 (PD-II), (4)Feb. 9-10, 2010. That's just a rough ordering off the top of my head, mostly based on snow amounts I measured. Wish I could have been here for some of those others!

Hey everyone...best of luck with the upcoming storm! I'm sort of crossing forums here as I currently live in the Washington, DC area, and we're pretty much just looking at cold rain here. However, I grew up in the Cleveland area (mostly in Shaker Hts., but also in Lake County around Wickliffe) and still like to monitor storms that affect the old homestead. Still have family in the area so I do visit at least once a year. Unfortunately, haven't had the opportunity to visit during the winter up that way in a few years, so kind of miss experiencing snow events (and lake effect) in northeast OH. At any rate, looks like this one takes a classic track for you all. I did check KCLE's latest and saw the watch is now a warning, and they're going 8-12" from what I saw in the northern-most counties.

Ah, OK...thanks for the reminder! In February, I recall there were some in the SNE forum who were complaining about all the snow we were getting that year and how it was somehow an affront to the natural order of things, or that we here in the MA had no right to revel in the record-breaking once in a lifetime winter. Not everyone, but I remember seeing comments to that effect (granted, some from here were trolling them a bit). I found that kind of amusing (and annoying), because though places like BOS and NYC didn't get the "big" totals that winter, it's not like they had a crappy year (a lousy winter here is far worse than a lousy one up that way!). Besides, didn't NYC recently get something like three straight 40"+ years shortly before that season?

That was a bonus, yes! ! But didn't the December storm also do the same (maybe NYC got hit too, can't recall that offhand).

I generally feel the same. I've tossed that around, which one was "better" or would rank ahead, either the Dec. 18-19 storm or Feb. 5-6. Probably really doesn't matter in the end, all the storms that year were remarkable and they were all great! In my particular location, the amount of snow was similar for each...20.0" from the December storm and 23.5" from February. Heck, both also occurred on a Friday night through Saturday, too. The February event was obviously bigger overall for the area when you look at the actual snow amounts that a lot of people got. But I kind of lean toward the December storm for a few reasons: it was still early in the season and that put an exclamation point on the start of that amazing winter, it was the first really major event here in many years (as you stated), and it was quite cold throughout the event. Cold powder from start to finish. I remember the excitement as it started to snow in the late evening (want to say around 9 or 10 PM that Friday), and it stuck immediately. Woke up to around 9" on the ground and got another 11" through the day and into the evening Saturday. After that winter in some of the ensuing discussions, I almost felt like the two big events in February sort of overshadowed the December storm. A lot of the talk was on whether the Feb. 5-6 event was bigger or the blizzard a few days later, almost as if the December one was a distant memory.

LWX's forecast from Friday evening, 18 December 2009 for the DC area (I saved a lot from that winter): Expires:200912190915;;980494 FPUS51 KLWX 190145 ZFPLWX ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 845 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 DCZ001-VAZ054-190915- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH 845 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... .OVERNIGHT...SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 20 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.

Good points. Though of course one cannot link singular events to a climatological phenomenon (stating the obvious here, I know!), it is hard to ignore global warming. As for this July, last I checked DCA was ~3 degrees above normal for the month, through yesterday (Jul. 22). And much of that from my quick look and calculation was due to the overnight lows, not so much the daily highs, as you stated. I think the lows are ~4 degrees above so far (vs. ~+1 or so for the highs) compared to the July mean for the entire month. Not the best to compare to the overall July climo since we've got just over a week left this month, but you get the idea. Interesting. It was quite oppressive the past week or so, that's for sure, even if it wasn't excessively hot in terms of absolute temperatures. I'm sure the amount of precipitation we've received since June played a role there. If the latest forecasts for the next week are correct, I'd expect that DCA departure to decrease somewhat, maybe to ~+2 degrees or even less(?). After the past 3 Julys...or, heck, the past 3 summers!...this year has seemed relatively moderate. Though, yes, that's somewhat subjective.

Hi Wes...yes, I remember your posts back then, it was quite an exciting time! Has it really been 2 whole years now?? I think you're right, in our lifetime we'll probably never see something comparable to that 12 day period from end of January into mid-February. It was truly remarkable. I say this as someone who experienced some of the worst winters (or best, depending on your point of view!) in northeast Ohio. Looking back, I don't think I can recall such a time period there with that kind of snow, with the possible exception of a big lake effect event. Of course, I'm sure we'll see another "big event" at some point, just not so much in such a concentrated amount of time. I'm glad I've got a lot of photos and notes from 2009-10. It's just too bad that this year, I haven't had much opportunity to give the new camera I got for Christmas a good workout on snow photography (and it's supposed to be better in low-light night shots, something I couldn't get very well with the old one a couple of years ago)!

As promised, a few photos... From the late afternoon/evening of Feb. 5: Near the start of the event, snow lining the trees Later in the evening, snow practically pouring out of the sky And, during the day of Feb. 6: Woke up to see this nice image During one of the heavy bands as it went through

Toilet paper and milk, FTW!! I'd like to see what kind of a spike in sales all the local supermarkets had during the week of those two storms!

The whole 12-day period from 30 January through 10 February was incredible in terms of winter weather, and something I've never experienced before. And this is coming from someone who grew up in northeast OH, where lots of snow and cold winters are common.

I've got many of the LWX forecasts and forecast discussions throughout the event, HPC snowfall probability charts, NAM and GFS forecasts at 500, 700, 850, and surface from Friday, 5 February (12Z cycle), and final snowfall reports after the storm...all saved. And, of course a ton of photos! I'll look through them and see if I can post a couple later on sometime. The only unfortunate thing (photograpy-wise!) is that a lot of the snow fell at night, and my camera isn't the greatest for nighttime photography, so most of the pictures are from just before sunset and from the following day. But I did get a few late in the evening, at least. The whole storm was amazing, as was the anticipation and getting ready for it. It was well forecast well in advance, with high certainty about what was going to happen. I remember leaving work early, just as the first light snow started to fall...headed out to Blockbuster (Lackluster!) video to pick up a couple of movies for the weekend, grabbed a small personal Pizza Hut pizza for lunch, and got some fire wood in case the power went out (fortunately it didn't!). Oh, and also picked up a 6-pack of BECK'S beer, on purpose, in honor of the impending storm (thinking of the mythical "BECS" type snowstorm!). Snow initially fell lightly for a couple or so hours but didn't really accumulate at the start. But it did start in earnest and began accumulating around 3PM on Friday the 5th. We had some snow left over from the Groundhog's Day event a couple of days prior (which got lost in the shuffle before the big event). I ended up with 23.5" where I'm at in Silver Spring, MD. Took many Jebwalks through the evening and the following day. Heard some thunder-snow during the evening/night, definitely saw flashes of lightning in the sky. And, heard many transformers blowing too. When I got up the next morning, it was a spectacular scene...and we still had a decent amount of the storm left to go! The only thing that was a little odd was that early Saturday (6th), Sterling seemed to back off some on the snow amounts I recall, and mentioned as much in their forecast discussion at the time...only to up them again by mid-morning. That, and somehow, despite the entire area getting a general 20-30", DCA came in with "only" 17.8, and I remember some discussion about that report on the Eastern WX board. I seem to recall seeing at least a couple of reports within the District itself that were well over 20". Regardless, a great storm all-around!

HA...perfect!

Pretty much! Same here. I loved going outside in the late evening on Friday as it began to snow and accumulate. Next day, I was out taking pictures as often as possible, and taking measurements. I'm sure the neighbors were wondering who the fool was walking around with a yardstick (all in the name of science, ya know!). Perhaps one of the coolest things about that storm is it was the first truly major event since Feb. 2003...a long time coming, and it was very exciting to finally break that drought. Even for this area, 7 years between "big storms" is kind of a long time. And by major, I'm talking widespread double-digit amounts (10-12") or more in the metro area (even as measured at DCA!). We certainly had some good moderate or better events in the intervening time, but also just missed on some or ended up with a lot less than originally thought (Feb. 2007 comes to mind, lots of sleet/ice when it looked for so long like we'd get hammered...and Feb. 2006, we got 8-10" or something like that, but that storm ended up hitting areas to the north like Philly and NYC a lot harder...and in Jan-Feb 2005 we had some chances that ended up being a lot less, though it was cold I recall).