Scarlet Pimpernel

But the Panic Room has kicked it up a few notches this year! Just look at some of those resorts the Reaper invested in!

Not as much as the Browns!! (this is coming from a native of northeast Ohio!)

Exactly. Which is why I'm more or less in your camp, just sit back and see how things go. As long as it's not looking like wall-to-wall crap in the longer range, we should be OK. At this point in the month (only the 1st!), I'm not overly enthused nor am I concerned. Like I said...and as you've mentioned many times..."good" snow in the 1st half of December is climatologically not exactly the easiest in any year (barring something extreme like 2009). I tend to pay more attention as we get toward Christmas, when the medium range is getting into the last part of the month and first part of January. And you're absolutely correct, the same kind of pattern later in the month is easier to produce something snowy than it is now. A bit more forgiving, as it were. We don't require quite so much deviation from climo by then.

One might get whiplash from these two contrasting posts...a mere few hours apart (and apologies...sort of...for singling yours out!)! But seriously, having not followed much so far as we get into winter, it's hard to make too much of anything one way or another as this month progresses. And hope that's right about better changes later in the month. I think the general consensus from what I gleaned reading in here lately is that we'll have a period of "not so great" after this week, but perhaps transitioning into better later in the month. Maybe I misinterpreted that, but it's the sense I got. As long as we don't end up with week after week after week of "Pac Puke" like last year (phrase compliments of Bob Chill!), and then have to waste more weeks "recovering" from that! Or another Christmas Eve like 2015, where it was actually uncomfortably humid and damp. Lately, snow in December around these parts seems almost like a bonus. Even a small amount. Good news is, maybe even if it's relatively mild, I can get a few miles of bike riding in now and then before we go full Jebman with extreme cold and deep snow pack (and of course I'd root for that)!!

One reason why 2013-14 is way up there on my list of winters...in the years that I've been here, at least (since 2001). Depending on the day and how I feel, I rate that winter as better even than 2002-03, despite the KU event that February. Yeah, I know, it's sacrilege to declare anything other than '09-10 better than '02-03, but you know what I mean. Not a single KU event in '13-14, and only one event that scored a foot-plus where I'm at (in Feb. 2014), but the sheer number of moderate or better events was astonishing. Especially given the overall winter pattern that season. Not to mention how late in the season we got those. I'd argue we can do well with a "bootleg" -NAO too, like the Blizzard of 2016. A small precursor clipper helped "keep it in place" just long enough to deliver that two days later. But there's always an element of luck there, too. (ETA: And that blizzard occurred after a gut-punching warm December that was +11 on the month!!).

Lazy ass, sleeping on the job! Geez, it's all gotta be automated now!!

Ha! For some reason this reminds me of something I read years ago. The basic story was that this one guy who was working at some factory while on summer break from "University" (he was British, yes). Apparently he was working with someone who was not very bright and kind of obnoxious, and was having trouble loosening one of these large bolts from a nut. The "university" guy kindly offered advice to heat it so that the nut would expand and break free more easily. The "not very bright" guy was a bit put off and said "Oh, so things get bigger when they get hotter, eh??" To which "university" responded sarcastically, "Yeah, that's why the days are longer in summer than they are in winter"...and Mr. "not very bright's" face looked puzzled for a moment, then cleared as he apparently bought it!!

Thanks for this, WxUSAF. In a way, kind of sad we actually need this kind of notice, but given the past couple or so winters it's necessary. I'm reminded of Bob's similar post at some point (2 winters ago? I've lost track!). The medium range threads really did get to be a chore to slog through at times, to the point of being unreadable. The panic room thread is great, because it's nice for people to vent in there or be snarky, and also just make fun of it all when the going is tough (Thanks, WxWatcher007/Reaper)! So yeah, with that, just have to take things how they go, even if it's not easy. As frustrating as it can be when it's not going well, I still try to at least get some understanding from a scientific/meteorological standpoint as to why events happened as they did (because the geek in me still is interested in that!). I have zero expectation one way or another on this upcoming winter season, given some of the discussion I've seen. Looks like too many factors on either side to make a set determination...so whatever!

Isotherm, his arms open. Shaka, when the walls fell (meaning winter fail???).

Wow! Maybe some Black Friday specials?? Oh, and I know you've spruced things up around the Room. But has the reaper staff finally upgraded to free wi-fi and continental breakfasts??

A'la "Kung Fu Panda"..."Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift. That's why it's called the present!" Sorry to go all zen there on your humor, haha!

Somehow, this reminds me of that old Saturday Night Live skit "Chicago Super Fans", where these 3 guys (I think George Wendt of "Cheers" was on that as a guest?) betting on what the Bears' score will be. One of them predicted something like "Bears 72, Lions -28"...and another asked how you can get a negative score in football...to which the reply was "Hey, Ditka will find a way!!" So with that...hey, DCA will find a way!!

I think Ji beat you by about 3 months on that!

Cast the green from thine own county, then shalt thou see the speck of blue in Loudoun! (or something like that?)

Yeah, it's hard to say...one run and all that. Agree that once tonight's coastal is actually out of the way and "known" better, perhaps we'll get a better lock on exactly what the Sunday/Monday event will do. For whatever it's worth, I went back and forth on the 24-h precip ending 18Z Monday, looking back through 00Z last night. Today's 12Z cycle has a noticeable increase in QPF over our region, both in terms of amount and coverage, if you flip back over the past 2-3 cycles (though that big max stripe in the southeast around AL/GA decreases). The low is also stronger and a bit more tucked on the NC coast (it was a bit farther south and off the NC coast at 00Z, and off the Delmarva at 06Z. These may be just back and forth oscillations, but those are the most "notable" things I saw at least at the surface. Hard to say if there's much change at 500, other than maybe some more lifting/ridging of the flow to the northeast in the 12Z cycle compared to the past couple runs.

Don't forget wind...we absolutely excel at strong winds around here!

3.3" at around 9AM...Chevy Chase, MD.

Agree. Where I'm at (Chevy Chase/Silver Spring area), even main roads are covered and treacherous. East-West Hwy, Conn Ave, etc. I had to drive in it briefly earlier this morning when it just started getting bad. People need to realize you just have to keep driving slowly and steadily (lower gear), and *not* just stop out of the blue.

LOL! Better than getting NAM'd!! Thanks for your ever-positive attitude with snow, much appreciated around here!!

FWIW, I looked at the HRRR (12Z) just to see what it showed...temperatures are still just below freezing through 00Z this evening along I95 corridor. Right now...looks very pretty out, large flakes, pounding snow! We're getting Jeb'd!!

Coming down good here (dare I use the word "ripping"?)...Chevy Chase, MD. Went out to get some photos. Roads are covered, even the main ones. Around 2" on the ground now.

Agree. And BTW I remember that Feb 2014 event you mentioned, if it's the one that dumped on us overnight for hours, followed by sleet then dry slot/drizzle much of next day. It should be a fun event for sure. My hope is to keep the surface cold into the evening (hold off all rain long as possible), or at least have the complement of the day be wintry with snow and sleet.

Welcome back Mr. Chill, sir! And yes, let's do this...looking forward to tomorrow! Cloudy, feels wintry out but no idea of exact temp. Probably like mid 30s.

That's right...start 'em off early with doing the chores! Uphill, both ways, with the sun in your eyes! And like it! But seriously...nice photos, and glad your first "real" snow event since being in this area was so fun! (ETA: I heard Jebman offers training courses in proper shoveling technique!)

Final count...11.0" at 9PM. Still some very light snow falling, but it's pretty well over. Great event!