Scarlet Pimpernel

Well, @Bob Chill did say he's passing the torch. I just didn't think he meant the ops Euro!! (Just kidding, Bob, you know I'm just having a bit of fun!!).

That's odd...I checked the calendar and it says "January 16" today, barely half-way through the month. (And the Grammar Nazi in me should correct your "its almost February" to "it's almost February".)

Just throwing this out there, too, if I may... I've also been wondering about something like "Commutageddon" (Jan. 26, 2011). Now I know that's not in your "historical decades" list, and it's obviously much more recent. And it was a highly dynamic storm in the mid-levels, which may not correspond to the type you have here. But as I recall the temperatures were borderline, at or just above freezing when the heavy, wet snow fell. I'm not familiar with the ones you list, as I wasn't here through that time. Were they similar in any way to how Commutageddon went? Maybe the extreme dynamic setup is the only reason Commutageddon worked out for us, as a more recent event?

"Passing the torch" might be a dubious turn of phrase at this point, with us looking for snow!!

Mmmmm, fried chicken!!! Oh wait, you said JFC, not KFC...damn, sorry!

Couple of things I can think of, just looking at that surface plot. The coastal low is too far inland (and the high to the north looks pushed too far away to the north). Also, note the extension of low pressure into the WV panhandle/southeast OH/southwest PA. That would imply a primary that's too far north, thus enabling more warm air to get in before the coastal can take over. Again, that's just based on looking at the surface, having not seen the corresponding Euro 500 hPa. ETA: Ninja'd by @psuhoffman and @jaydreb!

I thought the Reaper only deals with electronic transfers now!! Checks? Cash?? I thought those went the way of putting 2 spaces after a period at the end of a sentence! (Which I still do...so again, get off my lawn! haha!)

You know, it's kind of funny that I recall seeing the actual Pepperidge Farm ad that this is parodying!! (Now, get off my lawn!!)

Yup...well, that just figures! But you're correct, it's not worth worrying about how the GFS is handling a NS shortwave that far out...if there even is a NS wave by then in that precise location. Butterfly wings flapping is a prettier image, but cow's fart works too!!

Huh? OK, seriously...WTF is going on there? I have to assume there's some kind of shortwave around the Lakes area screwing up the flow or something like that. Or simply no antecedent cold air in place at all.

As I recall at the time, the global medium range model (LFM, limited fine mesh!!) of that day had it about a week in advance. And it was being widely discussed 5-7 days out in terms of its potential and severity. It was heralded as a numerical model success, for good reason. That system was similar to other "big dogs" like Feb. 2010 or Jan. 2016 (I assume Jan. 1996 too?), where the synoptic setup was just so blatantly clear, and models tend to grab onto those early and not waver much at all.

Can't recall much detail about that winter, must have slipped my mind. Any stats on how it was for the area offhand??

Thanks again, PSU, for being a voice of reason in here...difficult as that can be at times! I'll admit, the looks today have been very disappointing, after several days of very promising potential the latter part of this month and into February. OK, much of that disappointment is probably effects of this weekend's (non?)event. But for the longer range beyond that, it's one run, of one model system really (EPS). The 12Z GEFS I think looked fine still beyond this weekend(?) from what I saw shown earlier. Others have said this (I think you as well), but if the potential for this upcoming weekend never really existed or showed up as possibly being pretty good, I wonder how we'd all feel. Even with that, many were considering anything this weekend (IF anything) would be bonus, and the better time that was being honed in on was around the 24th or there about, and beyond. Of course, the EPS may well be a canary in a coal mine and models from here on out trend toward "meh" or worse, who knows. But for now we just have to sit tight and see.

Very tropical...

So, payback is a...bastard? I think you meant payback has been a female dog (not the son), perhaps, if you were trying to word that phrase diplomatically!

That was sometime later in Feb. 2015, right? Extremely cold at the start, we got like 6-8" snow then ice and some rain/drizzle. But that was only toward late day and at night after many hours of snow. Yeah, that was quite an unusual setup, not something you get here that often. Thing is, we weren't done with winter after that event, either (the early March ice then a final moderate snow event was icing...literally!...on the cake of a 4 week period!).

Ha! Well, maybe so, I was only having fun though. And yes, Cincy has been much better over the past decade (apart from maybe this year?) with playoff appearances. And I do remember the 2 SBs they played vs. 49ers back in the day. I grew up in the Cleveland area, long suffering on all sports fronts (until the Cavs won in 2016!). Where about in Cincinnati are you from? My sister at one point lived there (and she also went to Miami Univ. of Ohio years ago). So I've been there a few times, though not sure how much I remember about different neighborhoods there at this point. And I was in Columbus for about a year (interesting dichotomy there...between Indians/Reds and Browns/Bengals fans). Always cool to meet another Ohioan! (ETA: I remember "Red Right 88", "The Drive", "The Fumble", "The Shot", and 2 World Series lost in Game 7, both in extra innings!!)

Haha, no, of course not! I was only chiding you there (since I'm from northeast Ohio) because I had to, of course! And God forbid we fail like either the Bungles or the Clowns in terms of the pattern!

Now wait just a minute there, sir!! Change that to Cincinnati Bengals and it might be more accurate! Though yes, the Browns most definitely have a history lately of total ineptitude, even with the talent they had this year (that's what you get with poor coaching and poor discipline!).

Hahaha, just unreal! Suddenly the Texans cannot do anything after essentially being spotted a 24 pt lead! I expected KC would get themselves somewhat back in it by the half, but not quite like that! This might be one of the quickest turn-arounds in the playoffs (see my 1993 comment above, from the old Houston Oilers!). ETA: Four TDs in under 10 minutes now?! Chiefs going from being badly embarrassed to a 4 point lead...

Of course, lest we forget another Houston team from long ago (1993) that had a 35-3 lead vs. Buffalo early in the 2nd half...and ended up losing in just about the most incredible come-back in NFL playoff history.

True...shows how much I've paid attention! But still, it would be a highly unlikely AFC championship. I'm sure most were thinking Ravens, Pats, Chiefs in some combination would be in the final round. (ETA: And hey, give me a break, being from Cleveland...home of the BrClowns! The only team with so much talent and potential this season that they finished 6-10 and nowhere near a playoff spot thanks to crappy coaching and lack of discipline. And the most "exciting" thing was an awful helmet-hit penalty. Gah!!)

Holy cow...Houston! Could we possibly end up with an all-wild-card AFC championship? Kinda rooting for that now, I think!

A bit late here, but couldn't resist!!

Wait...I thought you were Spartacus! Or perhaps Groot.